AAVE Poised to Reclaim 300: 50% Fib Test, Pivot Hold, and Breakout Retest Signal a Bullish 24h Push

AAVE — multi-timeframe technical assessment and 24h game plan

1. Market structure and trend context (Daily)

• Primary swing: July high ≈ 330–337 followed by a corrective leg into late July/early August lows ≈ 249.6–261.1. The latest daily closes: 261.05 (7/31), 255.85 (8/1), 249.59 (8/2 low), 260.07 (8/3), 267.78 (8/4), 255.24 (8/5), 263.35 (8/6). Current price 292.11 marks a sharp reclaim of the late-July breakdown zone.
• Structure: The sequence since 8/2 shows a higher low (8/5 ≈ 255.24) versus the 8/2 low (≈ 249.59) and now a break above the 8/3–8/6 swing highs (~267–284). This forms a nascent bullish reversal (1-2-3 reversal) out of a descending channel that dominated from mid-July to end-July.
• Key daily levels: • Resistance/pivot cluster: 293–295 (50% retracement of 337→249.6 range and July congestion). 300/301 (round + prior supply). 303.9–304.0 (61.8% fib of 337→249.6). 308–310 (late-July shelf). 317–330 (major supply band). • Supports: 289–290 (newly broken intraday shelf), 283–286 (prior balance and today’s S1/P, see pivots), 274–276 (S2/late-July reaction), 268–270 (June fib confluence), 260–262 (late-July balance/VWAP memory).

2. Intraday (hourly) tape and breakout behavior (8/8 session)

• Session action: Tight Asian/Europe balance 281–286, then a NY breakout 17:00–18:00 UTC up through 290, tagging 293.15, with healthy expansion in hourly volume. Post-break prices held above 291 on the first retest, printing a classic breakout-then-hold pattern.
• Notable intraday levels derived from today: • Intraday high/low/close: H ≈ 293.75, L ≈ 279.64, C ≈ 292.11. • Shelf/resistance-turned-support: 289.5–291.0 (where the breakout initiated and first held). • Momentum: Higher highs/lows on hourly since 05:00–07:00 UTC; no supply dump on the retest, suggesting acceptance above 290.

3. Fibonacci, symmetry, and mean reversion

• Primary fibs (swing high 337 → swing low 249.6): • 38.2% = 282.97 (already reclaimed/converted to support intraday). • 50% = 293.30 (price currently oscillating just below/around this). • 61.8% = 303.92 (next upside magnet on continuation).
• Secondary fib (June rally 227 → July high 337) retracement: 61.8% ≈ 269.0. The August basing above this zone validates the corrective nature of the July drop and supports a further push toward 300–304 if momentum persists.
• Mean-reversion bands: • Hourly Bollinger (20,2): Bands expanded on the breakout; price is near the upper band, increasing probability of a shallow pullback toward the 20-hour mean, estimated 289–290, before attempting 297–304. • Daily Bollinger: After a contraction during late July selloff, bands are widening as price re-enters the mid-band area, enabling a drift toward the upper band (≈ 300–305) within 24–48h if momentum sustains.

4. Moving averages and momentum gauges

• Exponential MAs (estimates from recent closes): • 8-day EMA rising sharply into high-270s/low-280s and now below price; supportive of near-term upside. • 21-day EMA likely around 294–297 and flattening down; this aligns with the 293–297 resistance band and explains current hesitation. • 50-day SMA in the high-270s/low-280s; price is above it, supportive for swing-long bias.
• RSI (14): • Daily RSI likely mid-50s (from oversold bounce), leaving room to 60–65 on a push to 300+. • Hourly RSI peaked near 65–70 on the breakout and is cooling, favoring a buy-the-dip into 289–291 rather than chasing at 292–293.
• MACD: • Daily MACD histogram turning positive with a nascent signal-line cross from below; constructive early-stage trend resumption. • Hourly MACD positive after the breakout; a minor bearish momentum fade expected on pullback that can reset for another upswing.

5. Ichimoku overlays (qualitative read)

• Daily: Price is re-approaching a likely flat Kijun/Tenkan cluster ~295–300 with the cloud overhead from the mid-July distribution. First test often rejects and then accepts on the second push. Expect initial friction 293–297, then a possible drive into the lower cloud 300–305 on successful acceptance.
• Hourly: Price above Tenkan and Kijun; cloud turned bullish after the 290 breakout. A Tenkan/Kijun retest around 289–291 would be textbook for continuation.

6. Volume, OBV, and market profile

• Volume: The breakout hours to 293 printed stronger ticks versus the prior balance, indicating initiative buying.
• OBV (inferred): Stabilized in early August, now turning up; no significant distribution on the first retest.
• Profile: • Recent value built 260–280; we’re migrating value higher. • 290–295 is a lower-volume node from July; price tends to either reject or slice through quickly—today’s hold above 290 suggests acceptance risk is decreasing. • Next high-usage node near 300–305: expect responsive sellers initially, then potential trend continuation if absorbed.

7. Classical patterns and candles

• Descending channel from mid-July appears broken to the upside.
• Intraday breakout base at 289–291; candle structure shows initiative buying and then constructive consolidation—no immediate shooting-star or bearish engulfing at the top.

8. Pivots and levels for the next 24 hours (classic pivots using today’s H/L/C)

• Pivot P ≈ 288.50.
• R1 ≈ 297.36; R2 ≈ 302.61.
• S1 ≈ 283.25; S2 ≈ 274.39. Interpretation: With price above P and consolidating under R1, the high-probability path is a pullback to just above P (289–290) then a push to R1 (297) and potentially R2 (302.6). The 61.8% fib at 303.9 sits just above R2, acting as the tactical take-profit magnet.

9. Volatility and ATR framework

• Recent daily ranges suggest a 14-day ATR ≈ 13–18. A 24h push from 290 to 302–304 is a 12–14 handle move—within one ATR and therefore feasible without requiring extreme conditions.
• Intraday realized vol expanded on the breakout; expect a modest vol contraction during the retest phase, then a renewed expansion on any clean break of 295–297.

10. VWAP and execution nuance

• Intraday VWAP (session) estimates around mid- to high-280s; price is trading above VWAP—a bullish context. Dips toward 289–291 are favorable risk-adjusted entries as long as we remain above session VWAP drift and the 288.5 pivot.

11. Scenario map (next 24 hours)

• Bullish base case (≈ 60–65%): Hold 289–291, rotate to 295–297 (R1), then extension attempt into 300–304. Profit-taking likely near 303.9–304.2 (61.8% fib confluence with R2+).
• Neutral consolidation (≈ 20–25%): Chop between 286–295, building acceptance under 297 before a weekend breakout attempt.
• Bearish risk (≈ 10–15%): Lose 289–290 on volume, slide to 286, then S1 ≈ 283. A decisive close below 283 would negate the immediate long setup and reopen 279–276.

12. Strategy synthesis

• Multiple tools converge to the same conclusion: The market reclaimed key supports (38.2% fib ~283 and pivot P ~288.5), broke out above a prior balance (289–291), and is now coiling under the 50% fib/21-EMA band (293–297). Momentum, breadth of move, and volume suggest a dip-buy is superior to chasing. Primary upside magnets align at 297 (R1), 300 round, and 303.9 (61.8% fib).
• Risk management: The structure breaks only if AAVE loses 289–290 and fails to reclaim; the final invalidation for the 24h swing sits beneath 283 (S1 and prior shelf). A tactical stop just below 285–286 minimizes whipsaw while respecting structure.

13. Trade plan

• Bias: Buy dips (Long).
• Optimal entry: Limit buy on a pullback into 290.0–290.5 (retest of breakout shelf and just above daily pivot P).
• Target: 303.9–304.0 (61.8% fib and near R2 composite).
• Contingencies: If no pullback and price impulsively clears 295–297 on volume, a secondary breakout entry is viable with a tighter stop and a 300/304 objective. If 289 fails on volume, stand aside and reassess near 286/283.

Bottom line 24h outlook

• Expect a shallow mean-reversion dip toward 289–291, followed by a continuation attempt to 297–300 and potentially 303–304 if R1 is accepted. The path of least resistance is up, provided 289–290 holds.