Tradzar
Aave Price Analysis Powered by AI
AAVE Breakdown From the 155 Shelf: Bear-Flag Risk Points to a 24h Retest of 145 → 143
Market snapshot (AAVE)
- Current price: $147.40
- Last daily candle (2026-01-25, partial/in-progress): O 155.98 / H 156.46 / L 145.74 / C 147.40
- Immediate context: AAVE has been in a clear downswing since the early-January peak area (~$179–$176), with successive lower highs and a sharp intraday selloff today.
1) Trend & structure (multi-timeframe)
Daily structure (swing trend)
- From 2026-01-13 to 2026-01-14 price printed ~$179.4–$179.7 (swing high region).
- Since then, daily closes stepped down: 171.6 → 175.4 (lower bounce) → 169.1 → 163.8 → 153.1 → 159.3 → 157.1 → 156.9 → 156.0 → now 147.4.
- This is a textbook bearish sequence: lower highs + lower lows, with bounces failing to reclaim prior resistance zones.
Implication: Daily trend bias remains bearish until price reclaims at least the $156–$160 breakdown shelf.
Intraday structure (hourly)
- Hourly shows a range-to-breakdown pattern: price held ~154–156 for most of the day, then a capitulation leg started around 16:00, driving to ~150, then 148, then ~146.
- The bounce into 147.37–147.40 is weak relative to the sell impulse, suggesting bear-flag / dead-cat bounce characteristics rather than a reversal.
Implication (next 24h): Higher probability of retest of lows (145.7) and potentially a continuation toward lower supports.
2) Support/Resistance mapping (price action)
Key supports
- $145.7–$146.0: today’s low zone + immediate intraday demand reaction.
- $143.7–$146.2: confluence with 2025-12-31 low ~143.67 and nearby early-Jan base.
- $140–$142: psychological + likely next liquidity pocket if 143.7 breaks.
Key resistances
- $150.0–$150.7: breakdown pivot from the impulsive drop (16:00–18:00 region).
- $153.1–$154.8: prior intraday consolidation floor; now overhead supply.
- $156.0–$157.8: last two daily sessions’ range; major reclaim level to neutralize bearish continuation.
Interpretation: Price is currently below multiple former supports, meaning rallies are likely to be sold into until proven otherwise.
3) Volatility & range analysis
True range expansion (day + hour)
- Today’s session expanded range dramatically (~156.46 to ~145.74, ~6.9% intraday span). That is a volatility regime shift after several relatively tighter days near 155–160.
- Such expansion days often lead to either:
- Continuation (after a brief consolidation/bear flag), or
- Mean reversion (if the move was a washout and quickly reclaimed).
Given price did not reclaim 150/153 and is closing near the lower third of the day’s range, the odds favor continuation / second leg down rather than immediate full mean reversion.
4) Volume & “effort vs result”
Daily volume
- 2026-01-25 volume ~301.9M is elevated versus recent days (often ~150M–360M, with spikes earlier). The key is that the high volume coincided with a large red candle.
Effort vs result: Strong selling effort produced decisive downside result → supports a bearish narrative (distribution / stop-run).
Hourly volume spike
- Notable volume burst at 16:00 (very large) during the breakdown from ~153 to ~150.
Interpretation: That hour likely represented liquidation / heavy institutional sell flow. These zones often act as future resistance on retests.
5) Candlestick & pattern read
Daily candle characterization (in-progress)
- Large bearish body from ~156 down to ~147 with only modest bounce.
- No clear hammer / reversal signature (would require strong recovery toward 153–156).
Pattern hypothesis
- Bear flag: Post-drop consolidation likely between 146–150.
- Breakdown continuation target often approximates the flagpole size; while exact measurement needs tighter intraday structure, a practical target becomes the next daily support cluster (~143–142, then ~140).
6) Fibonacci / measured move (practical levels)
Using the recent swing high area ~179.6 to swing low area ~153.1:
- 38.2% retrace ≈ 163.2 (already rejected recently)
- 23.6% retrace ≈ 159.3 (also rejected)
Now, the market is below the prior swing low (153), which is bearish “range breakdown confirmation.” In breakdown conditions, fib retracements above tend to function as sell zones on pullbacks.
7) Momentum (RSI/MACD-style inference from structure)
While exact RSI/MACD values aren’t computed here, price behavior implies:
- Momentum has flipped negative on both daily and hourly (series of lower closes + impulse drop).
- Intraday drop likely pushed hourly RSI into oversold temporarily; however, oversold in a downtrend frequently leads to sideways-to-down rather than immediate reversal.
Base case: A shallow bounce, then continuation lower.
8) 24-hour forecast (scenario-based)
Base case (higher probability): bearish continuation
- Expect consolidation between 146–150, followed by a retest of 145.7.
- If 145.7 breaks, next magnet becomes 143.7–144.0, then 140–142.
Alternative (lower probability): mean reversion bounce
- If price reclaims 150.7 and then 153.1, a short squeeze could push into 154.5–156.0.
- This would require sustained acceptance above 153 (not just a wick).
Probability tilt: bearish continuation > mean reversion, given the breakdown and close location.
Trade plan (24h tactical)
Decision: Sell (Short)
Rationale summary:
- Confirmed daily downtrend + intraday breakdown below 153 support.
- Elevated sell volume and wide-range bearish candle.
- Overhead supply zones stacked at 150.7 / 153–155 / 156–158.
Optimal open (entry)
- Prefer shorting on a pullback into resistance rather than chasing:
- Open Price (short): $150.60 (near the breakdown pivot/resistance band 150.0–150.7)
Target (take profit)
- First strong support cluster below: $143.80 (confluence of today’s break continuation potential + 2025-12-31 low vicinity)
- Close Price: $143.80
Note: If price fails to bounce to ~150.6 and instead breaks below 145.7 with momentum, continuation shorts can work, but the risk/reward is typically worse without a pullback entry.