ADA coiled, broke, and is aiming higher: buy the retest for a run toward $0.89

This is an expert-only deep-dive using multi-timeframe technicals, pattern recognition, and quantitative diagnostics. Instrument: Cardano (ADA). Timestamp context: 2025-08-12 20:59 UTC. Spot ≈ $0.85061.

Executive summary of price action

• Daily structure (May → Aug): June capitulation to the mid-$0.54s, then an impulsive rally to late-July highs near $0.93, followed by a controlled retracement into early August (~$0.70), and now a strong recovery leg breaking back above key mid-range resistances.
• Intraday (today): A clean trend day higher from the $0.77–0.78 base, stair-stepping through $0.80, $0.813, $0.826, $0.836, $0.846 and closing the hour near the session highs at $0.8505–0.8536. Volume expanded into the breakout window (16:00–20:00 UTC), indicative of initiative buyers.

Multi-timeframe trend and structure

1. Market structure (daily)

• Swing High/Low map: June 23 low ≈ $0.541 → July 21 high ≈ $0.9297 → pullback into Aug 1–2 lows $0.6977 → higher swing highs reattempt now. The last corrective leg bottomed in the 61.8% retracement zone (see Fibonacci below), a textbook bullish retrace.
• Current regime: Price has reclaimed the 38.2% retrace and now is challenging late-July supply zones below $0.875–$0.903. Structure is transitioning from “corrective rebound” to “trend continuation” if acceptance develops above ~$0.853–0.858.

2. Market structure (hourly)

• Clear series of higher highs and higher lows since Aug 7, with today’s sequence showing constructive consolidation-breakout behavior. The 1h trend is firmly up.

Momentum and oscillators 3) RSI

• 1h RSI: Rapid squeeze higher on consecutive up-closes today. Based on the 1h progression from ~0.77 → 0.85 with minimal pullbacks, 1h RSI is likely 72–78 (overbought but in a trend). Overbought in trends tends to sustain; pullbacks to RSI 50–55 zones typically get bought in these regimes.
• Daily RSI: Grinding higher from mid-40s post-pullback to an estimated high-50s/low-60s now. That’s not stretched and leaves room for further upside on the daily.

4. MACD

• Daily MACD: The July-to-Aug early decline flipped histogram negative; the rebound from Aug 7 onward strongly suggests a bullish crossover/positive histogram inflection. Momentum is re-accelerating on the daily timeframe.
• 1h MACD: Strong positive expansion today with increasing histogram, consistent with an impulse wave.

5. Stochastics

• 1h Stoch: Likely pinned near 100, which often precedes either continuation or a shallow mean-revert. In trend days, stoch can stay maxed for hours. Watch for a bull reset: a shallow dip that resets stoch while price holds above broken resistance ($0.839–0.842) is constructive.

Trend following baselines 6) Moving Averages (approximations derived from provided closes)

• 20D SMA ≈ $0.781 (computed from last 20 daily closes). Price at $0.851 is ~9% above → bullish.
• 50D SMA (approx) ≈ $0.70–$0.72 given the June/July prints; price is decisively above → medium-term uptrend intact.
• 1h EMA(20/50/200): Price action sits above short and intermediate intraday MAs; any intraday retest of the 20–50 EMA cluster should be near $0.836–0.842 based on the late-session ladder.
• Slope/stacking: Short-term MAs > medium-term MAs > long-term MAs on 1h and daily → bullish alignment.

Volatility and bands 7) Bollinger Bands (daily)

• With 20D mid ≈ $0.781 and typical recent stdev ≈ $0.05–$0.055, upper band ≈ $0.89–$0.891. Price at $0.851 leaves headroom to the upper band. Bandwidth has been expanding from a mid-range contraction, which often precedes multi-session directional follow-through.

8. ATR / range projections

• Daily ATR(14) (est.) ≈ $0.045 ±. With close near $0.85, a 1×ATR move places upside potential toward ~$0.895 and downside retest toward ~$0.805 within 24h in an extreme scenario. Given today’s momentum, skew is to the upside, with a higher-likelihood distribution inside ~$0.836–$0.889.

Support and resistance (confluence-based) 9) Horizontal S/R (derived from daily and intraday turns)

• Immediate resistance: $0.853–$0.858 (today’s high cluster and a pivot-derived R2/R3 zone; see pivots).
• Next resistance: $0.875–$0.890 (late-July supply band), then $0.902–$0.907 (July 22 close/print), and the major $0.929 swing high.
• Immediate support: $0.839–$0.842 (freshly broken intraday resistance; ideal retest-buy zone). Below that: $0.833, $0.826, $0.813–$0.815, and $0.804.

10. Classic pivots (using 2025-08-10 H/L/C: H=0.8327, L=0.7882, C=0.8023)

• Pivot P ≈ 0.8077
• R1 ≈ 0.8272 (cleared)
• R2 ≈ 0.8522 (price currently testing this band)
• R3 ≈ 0.8717 (next pivot extension target if momentum persists)
• S1 ≈ 0.7827, S2 ≈ 0.7632 Observation: The market is pressing R2 into the close of the hourly set, often a signal of potential continuation to R3 after a modest pullback.

Fibonacci and measured moves 11) Fibonacci retracement (June 23 low ≈ 0.5410 to July 21 high ≈ 0.9297)

• 61.8% ≈ 0.689 → price bottomed near 0.698–0.716 (within the 61.8% zone).
• 50% ≈ 0.735 → reclaimed early last week.
• 38.2% ≈ 0.781 → reclaimed and holding, bullish sign.
• Implication: Having recaptured 38.2%, market often targets the 23.6% (~0.846) and then the origin of the swing (0.93). Today’s push above ~0.846 confirms this roadmap – the next measured objectives are 0.875/0.890.

12. Local swing projection (Aug 1 low 0.6977 → Aug 7–10 base → present)

• A measured move from the base (0.786–0.804 consolidation) to the breakout calculates a local extension target ~0.875–0.889 for this leg.

Profile, flow, and pattern diagnostics 13) Volume/flow

• Intraday volume rose meaningfully from 16:00–20:00 UTC precisely as price traversed prior supply zones, signaling real initiative buying, not just illiquid markup.

14. VWAP (session)

• While precise numeric VWAP isn’t provided, the stepwise buildup implies VWAP trailed in the ~$0.81–$0.82s for much of the session and was reclaimed and held, another institutional support cue.

15. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price appears above the cloud; Tenkan > Kijun after the recent upswing; Lagging span likely above price. Kijun baseline support likely sits near ~$0.80–$0.82. This configuration supports buy-the-dip behavior.

16. Candlestick/price patterns

• Intraday: Bullish trend candles with shallow wicks, classical trend-day behavior. Little to no sign of a distribution top yet. A brief pause around 0.823 and 0.836 turned into support.
• Daily: A sequence of higher closes off the early-Aug lows; today shaping into a strong bullish continuation bar approaching the upper Bollinger band.

17. Elliott wave (tactical)

• Tentatively: From the Aug 1 low, wave 1 to ~0.7548, wave 2 to ~0.726, wave 3 to ~0.804, wave 4 shallow to ~0.786, and we are in wave 5 aiming toward ~0.875–0.89 before a standard ABC pullback. This aligns with the pivot R3 and BB upper band confluence.

18. Regime analysis

• Late-July sellers exhausted around the 61.8% retrace; the bounce has transitioned to an impulse leg with expanding breadth and volume. Momentum/trend indicators are synchronized bullish on 1h and constructive on daily. Volatility expansion favors upside continuation but increases pullback amplitude; thus entries should bias toward retest levels rather than chasing highs, unless employing a defined breakout strategy.

Risk, invalidation, and scenarios (next 24 hours) 19) Base case (≈60%): Bullish continuation with a shallow pullback

• Expected path: Early pullback to retest $0.839–$0.842 (broken R2/vwap-adj zone), then continuation to $0.858 → $0.871–$0.876. Stretch target $0.889 near the daily upper BB/pivot R3-extended confluence. Close in the upper third of the daily range would cement momentum.

20. Alt case (≈25%): Range and fade day

• Path: Overbought 1h RSI induces a fade to $0.833–$0.836, possibly a dip to $0.826. Buyers defend $0.826–$0.833 and reattempt a late-session push; daily finish neutral-bullish.

21. Risk case (≈15%): Deeper shakeout

• Breakdown through $0.826 opens a test of $0.813–$0.815. Loss of $0.804 would jeopardize the current impulse and defer the move to $0.875–$0.89 by several sessions. This is the area for a hard stop on tactical longs.

Trading plan synthesis and decision

• Bias: Long. Momentum + structure + reclaimed Fibonacci + pivot confluence suggest upside continuation likelihood > downside in the next 24 hours.
• Entry tactics: a) Prefer pullback-buy: Limit near $0.842 (retest of broken resistance/1h EMA cluster). This aligns with better reward-to-risk and typical bull-flag retest behavior. b) Optional momentum add: If price accepts above $0.854 with volume, a small breakout add targeting $0.871–$0.889 is justified, given pivot R3 and band confluence.
• Profit targets: Primary TP $0.889 (upper band/extension confluence). Intermediate scale-out at $0.871–$0.876 if momentum stalls there.
• Invalidation/stop (tactical): Below $0.818 (beneath $0.826 and $0.813 supports), or tighter below $0.826 if you accept higher stop-out probability in exchange for tighter risk.
• Indicative R:R: Entry $0.842 → TP $0.889 = +$0.047 (≈+5.6%). Stop $0.826 = -$0.016 (≈-1.9%), R:R ≈ 2.9:1.

Probabilistic 24h price envelope

• Likely range: $0.836–$0.889
• Bull stretch: Spike to $0.902 if momentum snowballs and late-July supply pockets thin out.
• Bear shock: $0.813 test on an adverse risk-off headline or broad-crypto pullback.

Conclusion

• The technical mosaic supports a Buy-the-dip approach with a preferred entry at $0.842, targeting $0.889 within 24 hours, with clear invalidation below $0.826. Momentum breadth, pivot confluence (pressing R2, eyeing R3), Fibonacci reclaim, and band expansion all lean bullish in the near term.

Note: This is a technical analysis-based plan, not financial advice. Always size positions appropriately and respect predefined risk limits.