ADA Coils Then Strikes: Pullback Entry Targets a Run to $0.91 Within 24 Hours

Executive summary

• Bias: Bullish over the next 24 hours; favor a pullback long.
• Path: Expect a brief dip toward 0.874–0.876 to retest breakout support, then a push into 0.900–0.912. Risk of chop if 0.869 fails; deeper pullback risk to 0.857–0.860.
• Trade idea: Buy the retest; target first resistance cluster near 0.912.

1. Market structure and trend regime

• Multi-week context (daily): ADA bottomed near 0.54 on Jun 22, impulsed to 0.9297 on Jul 21, corrected into Aug 1–2 (0.686 low), and is now in an upswing of higher highs and higher lows. The correction held above the 61.8% retracement (≈0.673), keeping the larger July uptrend technically intact.
• Recent structure (daily to 4H/1H):
  • Higher lows: 0.686 (Aug 2) → 0.711 (Aug 6) → 0.768 (Aug 11) → 0.834 (Aug 13 early).
  • Higher highs: 0.804 (Aug 8–10) → 0.832 (Aug 10) → 0.8866 (Aug 13).
  • Today’s action cleared the 0.87–0.88 supply shelf and is consolidating just below 0.89.
• Conclusion: Bullish market structure across timeframes with price re-approaching late-July resistance bands.

2. Key levels (confluence of S/R and liquidity)

• Immediate resistance:
  • 0.892–0.907: prior supply and minor double-top zone from intraday pushes; includes hourly resistance near 0.886–0.889 and psychological 0.900.
  • 0.929–0.933: July swing high area; likely heavy liquidity resting above.
• Support on retest:
  • 0.874–0.876: breakout-retest band from today’s London/NY session handoff; intraday VWAP proximity.
  • 0.869: prior hourly pivot and mid-channel; failure here risks range re-entry.
  • 0.857–0.860: volumetric shelf from early session; below here opens 0.846 and 0.834.

3. Moving averages (trend breadth)

• Daily EMAs/SMA (estimates from recent closes):
  • 20D EMA ≈ 0.78–0.80 and rising.
  • 50D SMA ≈ 0.70–0.72 and rising.
  • Price at 0.884 sits above both, indicating a positive trend regime with supportive slope.
• 1H EMAs: Price is above rising 20/50-period EMAs; recent bullish kisses/retests were bought (e.g., at 0.869–0.874). This favors buying pullbacks rather than fading strength.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI: Likely recovered into 58–63 region after bouncing off golden pocket support; room to push into high-60s before overbought extremes. Positive momentum but not yet stretched.
• 1H RSI: Poked into overbought on the thrust to 0.886; now consolidating with mild reset while price holds near highs—bullish “overbought and staying” behavior typical of trend continuations. Watch for any bearish divergence on a push >0.89; not present at the time of writing.
• MACD (daily and 1H): Histogram expanding above zero on both, signaling improving upside impulse. 1H MACD lines crossed up on Aug 13’s early session and continue widening—supports continuation after shallow dips.

5. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (1H/4H): Price is walking the upper band on 1H; upper-band rides often produce stair-step advances. Brief mean reversion to the 20MA/center band (~0.874–0.876) is the high-probability entry before another upper-band tag near 0.895–0.905.
• Keltner Channels (1H): Price frequently at/near outer band, consistent with trend day characteristics; supports buying pullbacks to mid-line.
• ATR:
  • Daily ATR has expanded from June lows; today’s intraday high-low span (≈0.834→0.887) shows a ~5.3 cent range, leaving scope for another 2–3 cents on a continuation attempt into 0.90+.

6. Ichimoku (trend confirmation)

• Daily: Price above cloud; baseline and conversion line below price with bullish stacking; lagging span likely clear of price/cloud—trend-supported.
• 1H: Price comfortably above a thin rising cloud; conversion above base and both rising, indicating momentum. Pullbacks into 0.872–0.876 likely meet the conversion/base zone support on 1H/30m.

7. Market patterns and formations

• Ascending triangle (intraday): Flat-ish lid around 0.885–0.889 with rising intraday lows forms a compact ascending structure. Measured move (height ≈0.016–0.018) targets 0.90–0.905 on breakout.
• Breakout-retest behavior: Initial pop to 0.886 → mild pullback to high 0.87s → re-accumulation. Classic continuation setup.
• Elliott wave read (intraday swing): Probable wave-5 extension off the Aug 11 pullback: 1) 0.774→0.804, 2) 0.804→0.774, 3) 0.774→0.86+, 4) 0.86→0.84–0.85, 5) 0.85→0.886+. Wave-5s can end with momentum divergence; hence preference to enter on dip rather than chase into 0.90s.

8. Fibonacci analysis

• Major swing (Jun 22 low 0.513 → Jul 21 high 0.930):
  • 38.2% = ~0.771; 50% = ~0.721; 61.8% = ~0.673. The August low 0.686 stayed above 61.8% and has reclaimed the 38.2% level—bullish.
• Near-term extension: The move from 0.768 (Aug 11) to 0.886 projects typical 1.0–1.272 extensions into 0.900–0.915 on continuation, aligning with structural resistance.

9. Volume, participation, and confirmation

• Daily participation surged during the July impulse; August rebound shows healthy, rising participation on green pushes and lighter volume on pullbacks—constructive.
• Today’s 1H bars show volume expansion on upswings (e.g., 08:00–10:00 and 19:00–20:00 UTC), and contracting volume during consolidations—bullish volume pattern.
• OBV (qualitative): Sloping higher intraday; no distribution signature near highs yet.

10. Donchian, breakout/momentum systems

• 1H Donchian/price-channel breakout triggered as price set new session highs above ~0.873–0.878. System logic supports staying long while price holds above mid-channel (~0.869) with stops below the lower channel (~0.857–0.860).

11. VWAP and intraday mean

• Session VWAP tracked around high-0.86s to low-0.87s and has turned upward; current price is above VWAP with a small premium. A retest into 0.874–0.876 offers a VWAP-proximate entry with good R:R.

12. Risk scenarios and invalidation

• Base case (bullish, ~60%): Pullback-to-retest 0.874–0.876 holds, price extends to 0.900–0.912 within 24h.
• Neutral/chop (~30%): Range 0.868–0.888 persists; multiple rejections below 0.89 delay breakout to tomorrow.
• Bearish (~10%): Loss of 0.869 leads to deeper mean reversion 0.857–0.860; below 0.857 opens 0.846 and 0.834.
• Invalidation (for the long idea): Hourly close below 0.862–0.865 would negate the immediate breakout-retest and favor a return to range.

13. Strategy synthesis and execution plan

• Why buy dips, not chase: Momentum is positive but overhead supply sits 0.892–0.907. Pullback entries tighten risk and exploit the breakout-retest dynamic visible on 15–60m charts.
• Entry: Limit buy 0.874 (in the retest zone). If momentum continues without a retest, a secondary momentum entry would be a stop-buy above 0.887–0.889, but the primary plan is the pullback fill.
• Target: 0.912 (first resistance cluster/extension confluence). Partial scaling out around 0.900–0.905 may be prudent, but formal TP set at 0.912 for the plan.
• Risk guidance (not required but recommended): Protective stop 0.862–0.865 (beneath retest and intraday mid-channel). R:R to 0.912 from 0.874 ≈ 3:1 if risking ~0.012.

14. 24-hour price path projection

• Asia open: Minor consolidation/dip into 0.874–0.876.
• Late Asia to Europe: Bid returns; push toward 0.895–0.900.
• NY follow-through: Probe into 0.905–0.912; possible wick above 0.91 and fade back to 0.90.

Conclusion

• The multi-timeframe trend, reclaim of the 38.2% retracement on daily, ascending intraday structure, momentum expansion, and supportive volume pattern all favor a continuation higher after a shallow pullback. Optimal execution is to buy the retest at 0.874 with a target at 0.912 over the next 24 hours.