ADA’s Post-1.00 Rejection: Fading the Bounce Into Supply for a 78.6% Pullback

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bearish-to-sideways after a blow‑off and intraday trend break. Expect a reflexive bounce toward 0.912–0.925 to meet supply, followed by a continuation lower toward 0.880–0.876 if resistance holds.
• Trade idea: Short a pop into the 0.914–0.920 supply pocket; target the 78.6% retracement at ~0.876. Invalidation on a sustained reclaim above ~0.932–0.941.

1. Multi-timeframe price structure

• Higher time frame (daily): From the late‑June swing lows (~0.54) ADA has advanced materially, with an acceleration from early July and a surge into Aug 13–14. Today’s daily candle (Aug 14) printed a long upper wick: Open ~0.906, High ~1.016, Low ~0.895, Close ~0.903 on very high volume. This is classic “buying climax + rejection” behavior (shooting star/upper shadow), often followed by at least a multi‑session digestion or pullback.
• Intermediate context: July 20–22 marked a key resistance shelf near 0.90–0.93 (intraday high 0.9297 on Jul 21, close 0.9029 on Jul 22). Price reclaimed and wicked above 1.00 today, then failed back under that shelf by the close, turning the former resistance band into near‑term supply again.
• Intraday (hourly): The session built a sequence of lower highs after the 06:00 peak (1.016 → 0.997 → 0.995 → 0.941 → 0.930 → 0.910 → 0.907) and lower lows, establishing a clean bearish market structure. Price is parked just above 0.90, a visible pivot.

2. Volume and order flow

• Daily volume spiked to ~6.28B versus 2.36B yesterday and ~2B typical in prior upswing days. This looks like a volume climax accompanying rejection from 1.00–1.02, suggestive of distribution/longs taking profits into strength.
• Intraday, the 12:00–13:00 UTC candles carried heavy sell volume through 0.96 → 0.92, creating a clear supply zone overhead (approx. 0.93–0.95). Subsequent bounces were sold and produced smaller sticks, indicating fading demand into that zone. VWAP for the session (qualitatively) sits well above current price, leaving VWAP as overhead resistance—bearish for the next day unless reclaimed.

3. Key levels (confluence)

• Resistance/supply: 0.912–0.925 (local supply and 50% retrace), 0.932–0.941 (post‑dump retest zone and intraday pivot), 0.95–0.97 (deeper supply, hourly breakdown origin), 1.00–1.016 (liquidity sweep high / psychological round number).
• Support/demand: 0.900–0.895 (pivot/psych), 0.885–0.880 (gap/inefficiency pocket), 0.876 (78.6% retrace of latest upswing), 0.858–0.860 (strong daily shelf from Jul 20), 0.834 (Aug 13 daily low; full round‑trip of the last impulse if things overshoot).

4. Fibonacci map of the latest swing

• Measured leg: Aug 13 low ~0.834 → Aug 14 high ~1.016.
  • 38.2%: ~0.946 (retested/faded intraday)
  • 50%: ~0.925 (aligned with supply pocket)
  • 61.8%: ~0.904 (current price area; loss of this level intraday suggests a further push lower)
  • 78.6%: ~0.876 (prime magnet on further mean reversion)
• Expectation: After failing to hold 61.8% at the close, a relief bounce is typical toward the 50%/golden zone, then a drive to 78.6% if sellers remain dominant.

5. Moving averages (inferred)

• Daily trend MAs (20/50/100) should still slope up given the July–Aug strength; price remains above medium‑term MAs, sustaining the broader uptrend.
• Intraday (1h) fast MAs rolled over post‑top and bear‑crossed through mid‑session. Price closed under short MAs and below an approximate session VWAP—consistent with a bearish 24‑hour outlook unless reclaimed.

6. Momentum indicators (qualitative)

• RSI (1h) likely shifted from overbought in the morning to sub‑50 post‑dump; momentum regime change favors selling bounces rather than chasing breakdowns.
• MACD (1h) histogram likely rolled negative with a bearish cross post‑12:00 dump; daily MACD probably still positive but curling, consistent with a corrective phase within a larger uptrend.

7. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• Daily ATR/true range expanded sharply today (~13% intraday swing). Strong expansion after a run often precedes a mean‑reversion day. With price rejected at/above the upper band intraday, a drift back toward the middle band area (below today’s close) is common—bias to the downside in the short run.

8. Ichimoku read (heuristic)

• 1h: Tenkan has likely crossed below price earlier and price moved toward/under Kijun; cloud ahead could twist/flatten. Typical mean reversion to Kijun occurred and was rejected, keeping bearish bias. Cloud resistance expected near 0.915–0.93.
• Daily: Still supportive (trend up), so we treat this as a corrective pullback, not a macro trend reversal—hence aggressive shorts should aim for tactical targets, not deep trend breaks.

9. Elliott/Wave context

• The thrust from ~0.834 to ~1.016 resembles a 5‑wave intraday impulse. Post‑peak, an ABC corrective structure is playing out: A down (1.016 → ~0.923), B retrace (~0.934/0.941), C in progress. ABC equality from B (~0.941 minus ~0.093) would project ~0.848; 0.618–0.786 of A projects ~0.88–0.87, aligning with the 78.6% fib target. Given the 24h window, the 0.876–0.880 zone is a pragmatic C‑wave objective.

10. Wyckoff/Market profile concepts

• Upthrust after distribution (UTAD) behavior around 1.00–1.016: price swept overhead liquidity and quickly reverted. High volume on the rejection suggests supply overcame demand. A secondary test into 0.915–0.935 is typical; failure there implies markdown toward the next high‑volume node near 0.88–0.876.

11. Liquidity, order blocks, and FVGs

• Liquidity above 1.00 appears swept. Untapped liquidity now sits below 0.90 and around 0.88, where stops from late chasers likely reside.
• Bearish order block: 0.915–0.935 (origin of the 12:00 breakdown). Expect responsive sellers there.
• Fair value gaps: Gaps left by the morning ramp and midday dump likely exist around 0.88–0.90; filling them would harmonize with the 78.6% retrace.

12. Scenario analysis (next 24h)

• Base case (55%): Early bounce toward 0.914–0.925 supply fails; price rolls over to probe 0.885–0.876. Close near the lower third of the day’s range.
• Bear extension (25%): Quick slip through 0.895 with momentum, accelerated move to 0.862–0.858 before a late bounce. Would require another burst of volume.
• Bull recovery (20%): Strong reclaim of 0.932–0.941 and hold above 0.95; that would neutralize the short and put 0.97–1.00 back in play. Not favored without a catalyst.

13. Risk management and execution notes

• Optimal short entries are into supply on a bounce, not on breakdowns, given the day‑after mean‑reversion tendency and high volatility. The 0.914–0.920 pocket offers good R:R versus a protective line around 0.932–0.941 (invalidates the immediate bearish structure).
• Tactical target set near 0.876 (78.6%), which is conservative relative to the deeper ABC projection (~0.848) but realistic within 24 hours.
• If the bounce does not occur, an alternate plan would be a momentum add on a clean break/retest of 0.895; however, the primary plan prioritizes optimal fill quality and R:R.

14. Synthesis and conviction

• Confluences for short: Intraday lower‑highs sequence, daily upper wick on volume climax, failed holds at 0.946/0.925 fibs, close under 61.8% (~0.904), VWAP overhead, and a well‑defined order block at 0.915–0.935. Broader uptrend remains intact, so the short is tactical, aiming to harvest the corrective leg toward 0.876.

Prediction (24h): Price bounces toward ~0.914–0.920 in the next 4–10 hours, then rolls over into ~0.885–0.876 within the 24h window. Sustained reclaim above ~0.932–0.941 would invalidate the short bias and likely lead to a re‑test of ~0.97.

Trade plan

• Direction: Short (Sell)
• Entry: 0.914 (limit in the 0.914–0.920 supply zone)
• Take‑profit: 0.876 (primary objective; aligns with 78.6% retracement)
• Invalidation (not placed in schema but recommended): ~0.936 (above supply; or conservative 0.941)
• Notes: If filled early and price accelerates, consider partials at 0.890–0.885 and let remainder work to 0.876. If no bounce occurs, reassess for a breakdown‑retest entry below 0.895.