ADA: Sell the Bounce Into 0.69—Target the 0.63 High-Volume Shelf Within 24 Hours

Summary view and thesis

• Regime: After the 10/10 flash-crash (intraday low ~0.333) ADA staged a reflex rally to 0.729 on 10/13, then rolled over. Price is now 0.6749 and pressing into layered supports around the 61.8% retracement of the post-crash rebound. Intraday momentum is bearish with rallies being sold.
• Bias next 24h: Mildly bearish-to-range. Base case is a drift/lower grind into 0.655–0.645 with reactive bounces toward 0.69 sold; tail risk probes to 0.635 where high-volume support sits.
• Trade stance: Favor selling strength (short on a bounce) rather than chasing, with take profit into 0.635–0.645.

Step-by-step technical breakdown

1. Price action and market structure (Daily → Hourly)

• Daily structure: July–Aug uptrend peaked mid-Aug (~1.016). September formed a distribution with lower highs and rising tails. The 10/10 shock reset the regime; since then: A-wave rebound to 0.729 (10/13), then a lower high sequence and expanding upper wicks (supply).
• Key levels from the tape: • 0.729 (10/13 swing high) – post-crash rally cap. • 0.713 (today’s intraday high) – supply emerged quickly after a brief push above 0.71. • 0.699–0.703 – former intraday support (10/14–10/15) now turned resistance; also a round-number magnet. • 0.688–0.692 – intraday pivot cluster where rallies stalled on lower timeframes; ideal sell zone. • 0.671–0.672 – 61.8% retracement support from the pre-crash swing (see Fib below) and today’s reaction area. • 0.666–0.667 – today’s low; weak hands support. A clean break opens 0.65s. • 0.634–0.635 – 10/10–10/11 close region and high-volume node; strong support candidate.
• Hourly micro-structure (10/15): Lower highs from 0.713 → 0.706 → 0.699 → 0.676 with sequential lower lows (0.679 → 0.671 → 0.666). This is classic intraday down-channel behavior. A minor bounce printed into the US afternoon but failed below 0.68.

2. Moving averages (trend filters)

• Daily: Price trades below the 20/50/100-day EMAs after the crash. The 20D EMA likely resides ~0.78–0.80, 50D ~0.83–0.85, both overhead → bearish higher-timeframe regime. Expect rallies toward 0.73–0.76 to meet sellers.
• Hourly: Price is below 50/200-hour EMAs (visual inference from the stair-step lower). Typically this locks price into a “sell-rallies” flow until a base forms; 200H EMA likely ~0.70–0.71, 50H ~0.69–0.695.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI (Daily): Post-crash rebound likely lifted RSI out of oversold, but given the roll-over and closes under 0.70, RSI is in a bear-range regime (think 35–50). No daily bullish divergence printed yet.
• RSI (Hourly): Persistent lower highs imply RSI holds sub-50; sequence of lower lows without a clear higher-low in RSI suggests momentum not yet exhausted. Expect RSI to probe mid-30s on another push to 0.655–0.645 before mean-reverting bounce.
• Stochastics (Hourly): Likely low and attempting to curl, but within a downtrend this tends to produce shallow rallies that fail under resistance.

4. MACD

• Daily MACD below signal and below zero after 10/10, with histogram likely negative to flat. No cross back above signal yet → bearish bias persists.
• Hourly MACD beneath zero, histogram printing small negative bars with occasional contraction during pauses; each contraction has been sold. No durable positive cross sustained above zero line yet.

5. Bollinger Bands

• Daily bands expanded violently on 10/10. Price has migrated from lower band to mid-band and is rolling back down. In a volatility-compression phase after shock, price often oscillates mid-to-lower band until a fresh impulse. Expect a “band walk” along the lower half unless 0.70–0.71 is reclaimed convincingly.
• Hourly bands: Price hugging/below middle band; lower band support roughly mid-0.66s. Touches of lower band have produced only weak bounces.

6. Ichimoku

• Daily: Price is below Kijun and Tenkan and well below the Kumo; forward Kumo likely bearish. Any Tenkan/Kijun resistance in 0.72–0.75 area should cap rallies near-term.
• Hourly: Price below cloud, with cloud flatness near 0.70 providing an attractor only if momentum changes; otherwise cloud acts as overhead resistance.

7. Fibonacci mapping (post-crash context)

• Using swing high 10/6–10/7 area (~0.8797) to 10/10 low (~0.333): range ≈ 0.5467. • 38.2%: ~0.542 • 50%: ~0.606 • 61.8%: ~0.671 • 78.6%: ~0.763
• The rebound topped at 0.729 (below 78.6%), then pulled back to test the 61.8% (~0.671) today. This 61.8% is classic decision support. A sustained break and hourly close below 0.671/0.666 increases odds of a drive toward the 50% (~0.606). Before 0.606, high-volume shelf at 0.634–0.635 is the first magnet.

8. Volume and profile

• 10/10 volume spike (largest in series) indicates a capitulation/transfer of ownership. Subsequent rally volume was lighter and diminishing into 10/13–10/14 → reactive rather than impulsive demand.
• High-volume nodes: 0.63–0.68 region likely hosts the post-crash POC. Price oscillating within this node often leads to whipsaw; edges (0.634 support / 0.699 resistance) matter most. Current position is mid-lower of this node, favoring a test of the lower shelf.

9. Pattern recognition

• Bear flag: Post 10/13, structure resembles a flag breakdown with lower highs and controlled descent—typical post-capitulation mean-reversion leg failing and transitioning to consolidation/basement-building.
• Intraday head-and-shoulders (10/13–10/15): Left shoulder near ~0.706, head 0.729, right shoulder ~0.706–0.713; neckline ~0.699. Breakdown yields measured move ~3c to ~0.669, which has been achieved; extensions often reach 0.656–0.652.

10. Elliott-style count (heuristic)

• Wave A: 0.333 → 0.729 (reflex).
• Wave B: 0.729 → ongoing pullback. Common retrace for B is 38.2–61.8% of A (from 0.729 to 0.333), placing 0.606–0.671 as the primary zone. Price is testing the top of this band; slipping deeper into the band (0.66s → 0.63s) is consistent with a typical B retrace before C-wave attempts.

11. Statistical/volatility context

• 5-day mean close ≈ 0.680; current 0.675 is slightly below mean ⇒ no extreme deviation; room to travel lower without immediate mean-revert pressure.
• ATR (daily) expanded post-crash; near-term realized range likely 5.5–8.0 cents. A 24h envelope around 0.675 suggests 0.645–0.705 is a realistic span, with skew to the downside given structure.

12. Scenarios for next 24 hours

• Base case (55%): Drift lower with failed bounces. Price probes 0.666 → 0.655–0.648; intraday bounces stall 0.688–0.696. Close near 0.655–0.665.
• Bullish alt (25%): Strong squeeze above 0.699–0.703 flips intraday trend; test 0.713 and possibly 0.725, but sellers likely defend sub-0.729.
• Bearish tail (20%): Clean breakdown of 0.666 leads to swift liquidity sweep into 0.640–0.635; knee-jerk bounce follows.

13. Confluence and trade plan

• Confluence for short: • Price below hourly/daily trend filters and under key resistance 0.699. • 61.8% (0.671) being pressured from above; repeated tests weaken it. • Intraday lower high/lower low sequence intact. • Volume profile points to 0.634–0.635 as magnet if 0.666 fails.
• Preferred execution: Sell strength into 0.688–0.696 (prior intraday supply and near 50H EMA). If bounce is weak, a second-chance add on rejection below 0.699 is viable. First target 0.645; stretch to 0.635 at the node.
• Invalidation (risk control, for completeness): Hourly close above 0.703, or daily reclaim above 0.713, would negate the immediate short thesis.

Bottom line

• The path of least resistance for the next 24 hours is a sell-the-rip environment, aiming for the 0.645–0.635 demand band. I favor a short entry on a bounce rather than at-the-market to optimize risk/reward, with profit-taking into the 0.635 shelf.