ADA’s Bounce Into Supply: Fade 0.646–0.655, Target 0.605 Within 24 Hours

Educational, not financial advice. This is a short-term, data-driven trade plan for the next 24 hours based solely on the provided chart.

1. Multi-timeframe market structure and trend

• Daily structure (since mid-Aug → now): After peaking near ~1.02 on 2025-08-14 and retesting ~0.95–0.97 in mid‑Aug, ADA trended lower through September (0.92 → 0.80s), bounced in early October (~0.85–0.89), then suffered a capitulatory flush on 2025‑10‑10 (wick to 0.3329, close 0.6348). Post‑flush recovery stalled at 0.7293 (10‑13), followed by lower highs and lower lows into 10‑17 (current ~0.6303). The overall daily trend is down.
• Intraday (hourly 10‑16 → 10‑17): Price slid from ~0.645–0.650 into a morning selloff to 0.595–0.598 (10‑17 08:00), then staged a steady grind up, printing higher lows: 0.595 → 0.611 → 0.614 → 0.622 → 0.624 → 0.630. That’s a countertrend bounce within a broader downtrend.
• Takeaway: Macro downtrend intact; short-term intraday momentum recovering after a liquidity sweep below 0.60.

2. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20‑day SMA ≈ 0.769 (avg of last 20 closes). Current price 0.630 is ~18% below the 20‑SMA; bearish regime.
• 50‑day SMA (rough) ≈ 0.84–0.86 given Aug–Sep closes; price well below; confirms higher‑timeframe downtrend.
• 8/21 EMA bias: 8‑EMA likely ~0.69–0.70, 21‑EMA ~0.76–0.78. Price below both; rallies into these areas are likely sold.
• Implication: MA stack is bearish; rallies to 0.65–0.70 are opportunities for supply to re‑enter.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): Likely mid‑30s to high‑30s after the 10‑10 shock and subsequent bleed (not deeply oversold but weak). That favors brief mean‑reversion pops that often fail under resistance.
• Hourly RSI: Recovered from oversold (~20s–30s) to neutral (~50s) as price bounced from 0.598 → 0.630. Momentum reset provides room for a push into nearby resistance before supply shows up.
• Stochastics (qualitative): Hourly stochastic crossing up from oversold aligns with the bounce; daily stochastic still depressed.
• Implication: Near-term momentum supports a bounce into resistance; bigger picture momentum remains bearish.

4. MACD and trend confirmation

• Daily MACD: Bearish and likely widening after rolling over post‑0.729 (10‑13). No daily bullish cross yet.
• Hourly MACD: Flipped positive during the intraday up‑leg, consistent with a short‑lived relief rally.
• Implication: Countertrend intraday bid, but daily MACD favors selling strength.

5. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily is inflated by the 10‑10 wick; adjusted ATR (ignoring the extreme tail) still elevated. Pragmatically, a 24‑hour range of ~0.04–0.06 (6–9%) is realistic.
• Keltner/Bollinger context: Price sits in the lower Bollinger half on daily. With mid‑band (20SMA) near 0.769 and an estimated band width ~0.18–0.20, the lower band sits around ~0.58–0.60. Current 0.63 is above the lower band but in the lower quartile, implying bounce risk but trend pressure.
• Implication: Expect 0.605–0.655 as the primary intraday battleground, with tails possible.

6. Support/resistance and key levels

• Structural supports: 0.600–0.605 (cluster from today’s low sweep 0.595/0.598 and recent closes), psychological 0.600, deeper flush risk 0.585–0.590 (near lower BB proxy).
• Near resistances: 0.644–0.651 (prior breakdown shelf and today’s intraday supply), 0.655 (daily pivot P), 0.662 (50% retrace of 0.729→0.595), 0.678 (61.8% retrace), stronger 0.700/0.705 and 0.729 swing high.
• Daily pivot (from 10‑16 H/L/C 0.6836/0.6358/0.6449): • P ≈ 0.6548 • R1 ≈ 0.6737, R2 ≈ 0.7025 • S1 ≈ 0.6260, S2 ≈ 0.6071 Current ~0.630 sits just above S1; a mean‑reversion push toward P (0.655) is plausible, but that area is likely sold.

7. Fibonacci and confluence map

• Swing 0.7293 (10‑13 high) → 0.5954 (10‑17 low). Range = 0.134. • 38.2% = 0.5954 + 0.382×0.134 ≈ 0.6465 • 50% = ≈ 0.662 • 61.8% = ≈ 0.678
• Confluence: 0.646–0.655 zone aligns with 38.2% retrace and daily pivot P. That’s a classic “sell the bounce” area in a downtrend.

8. Volume/flow and VWAP

• 10‑10 capitulation printed extreme volume; subsequent up‑days showed lighter volume than down‑days—bearish OBV drift.
• Today’s intraday VWAP (approx) ~0.618–0.622 after heavy sell volume during the morning dip and balanced recovery. Current ~0.630 is modestly above VWAP; if the bounce extends, 0.646–0.655 should attract supply.

9. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price below Tenkan and Kijun; the cloud above (~0.80s) is well overhead. Bearish state; rallies to Tenkan/Kijun tend to fail until a base forms.

10. Pattern diagnostics

• Post‑flush descending channel since 10‑13 with lower highs (0.729 → 0.700 → 0.669 → 0.645) and a flat‑to‑slightly‑rising floor around 0.600–0.605—behaves like a developing descending triangle. In downtrends, these often break lower, but they also provide shortable bounces off the base.
• Today’s action looks like a liquidity sweep under 0.60 followed by a relief bounce back toward prior support-turned-resistance.

11. Mean‑reversion and statistical context

• Z‑score vs 20‑SMA: (0.630 − 0.769)/σ. With σ ~0.09, Z ≈ −1.54: oversold but not extreme; bounces to the −1 to −0.5 Z range (~0.646–0.655) are common before trend resumes.

12. Elliott/Wyckoff framing (heuristic)

• Elliott: A 5‑wave decline off 0.729 looks plausible into the 0.595–0.600 low, now in an A‑B‑C corrective bounce; B often terminates near 38.2–50% retrace (0.646–0.662) before a C‑leg lower or a retest of lows.
• Wyckoff: Distribution in Aug/Sep → markdown. 10‑10 was a selling climax with automatic rally and secondary tests. Presently in a weak up‑thrust/AR retest area; supply should re‑assert into resistance.

13. Pivotal scenario map (next 24h)

• Base case (sell-the-bounce, 50–60%): Intraday grind continues to 0.646–0.655, stalls at Fib 38.2/Pivot, then fades toward 0.607–0.612. Range expectation: 0.605–0.655; daily close bias 0.615–0.625.
• Bullish alt (30%): Stronger short-covering pushes through 0.655 toward 0.662 (50% Fib). 0.662–0.678 is heavy supply; failure there likely. Only decisive acceptance above ~0.678 flips the 24–48h bias.
• Bearish tail (10–20%): Rally fails early; price rolls from ~0.636–0.641 without tagging 0.646, breaks 0.607, probes 0.595–0.600 liquidity again.

14. Trade plan logic

• Edge location: 0.646–0.655 has a dense confluence (Fib 38.2, prior shelf, daily pivot). In a bearish regime with negative MACD and weak daily RSI, this zone is attractive to fade.
• Risk context: Elevated ATR means stops must be beyond the 50% retrace or, conservatively, beyond 0.678 (61.8%). Reward: A fade from 0.646–0.655 to 0.607–0.605 offers ~6–8% potential within 24h if the bounce exhausts.

Decision and levels

• Bias for next 24 hours: Sell strength. Expect a pop into 0.646–0.655 followed by supply. Targeting a move back toward 0.605 near S2/round‑number support.
• Optimal open (short) price: 0.646 (limit) to align with 38.2% retracement and anticipated supply just below the pivot at 0.655.
• Profit-taking (cover) price: 0.605, just above the 0.600 round number and near S2 (0.607), to front‑run bids and volatility tails.
• Risk (not part of the requested fields, but prudent): Consider an invalidation stop above 0.662–0.678 depending on risk tolerance; that respects the 50–61.8% retrace and overhead supply.

Bottom line: ADA remains in a daily downtrend. Use the intraday bounce into 0.646–0.655 as a short entry to target a retrace back to ~0.605 over the next 24 hours.