ALGO: Bear Flag Beneath Broken Support — Short 0.211 Supply, Target the 0.201 Liquidity Sweep

Overview

• Instrument: Algorand (ALGO)
• Current price: 0.2084
• Timeframes analyzed: Daily, 4H proxy (from daily + hourly context), and 1H (intraday series provided)
• Data window: 2025-06-29 to 2025-09-26 (daily) and 2025-09-25 21:00 to 2025-09-26 20:58 (hourly)
• Objective: Predict next-24h move, determine bias, set optimal open and close (take-profit) levels

Tools and Techniques Used

• Market Structure (higher highs/lows, breaks of structure) and Trendlines
• Support/Resistance and Price Action Zones (supply/demand, liquidity pools, order blocks)
• Moving Averages: 20D/50D SMAs (approx), 1H short MAs
• Momentum: RSI (daily/hourly regime), MACD (slope/histogram bias)
• Volatility: Bollinger Bands (20,2) and ATR (approx)
• Fibonacci Retracements/Extensions (multi-swing)
• Volume Analytics: Relative volume, OBV trend, volume nodes
• VWAP/Anchored VWAP (from the 9/22 dump)
• Ichimoku Cloud (qualitative regime)
• Wyckoff lens (distribution/markdown vs accumulation)
• Pattern recognition: Bear flag/channel, mean-reversion vs trend continuation
• Scenario and probability-weighted outlook

Step-by-Step Analysis

1. Market structure and trend

• Daily structure: Clear lower-highs and lower-lows since the July peak (0.3348 on 7/18). After the mid-July spike, price trended down through August (0.25 → 0.23 area), then in early September oscillated 0.23–0.25, before breaking lower 9/22–9/25 to the 0.20–0.21 handle. The break of the 0.231–0.234 shelf (multiple daily touches 8/29–9/11 and 9/19–9/21) confirms a bearish continuation.
• Most recent break: 9/25 daily candle closed 0.20245 after making a 0.20098 low, a decisive bear candle through prior range support. Today (9/26) price bounced intraday to ~0.2107 but failed to reclaim 0.212–0.214 resistance, settling back to 0.208s. That keeps the daily market structure bearish and rallies suspect.
• Intraday (1H): From 0.2005–0.201 (9/25–26) price stair-stepped up toward 0.2107, then failed to extend, rolling back to 0.208. This forms a rising channel/flag against the dominant daily downtrend. The intraday structure shows a developing lower high vs 19:00–18:00 prints, suggesting flag breakdown risk in next session.

2. Key support/resistance (confluence)

• Overhead supply/near-term resistance: • 0.210–0.212: 1H supply created by 9/26 17:00–19:00 push and immediate fade; also within yesterday’s intraday breakdown zone. Expect sellers on retests. • 0.214–0.218: 9/22–9/23 daily reaction highs (post-dump). A stronger cap unless reclaimed. • 0.223–0.226: 50%–61.8% of the minor 0.2505→0.201 swing, and prior daily congestion.
• Supports / liquidity • 0.205–0.206: lower 1H BB support area and micro shelf from 9/26 morning. • 0.200–0.201: round-number liquidity pool; 9/25 low 0.20098. Stop clusters likely below 0.200. • If 0.200 gives way, next daily supports emerge 0.196–0.198 (measured move, see below), then 0.190–0.192 (older pivots).

3. Moving averages (directional filter; approximate on daily)

• 20D SMA ≈ 0.235–0.237 (constructed from the last 20 closes which were largely 0.23–0.25 until the last few days). Price is well below the 20D, confirming bearish momentum and that rallies toward the mean are sellable unless reclaimed.
• 50D SMA ≈ 0.258–0.262 (weighted by July/Aug higher closes). 20D < 50D and price < 20D: full bearish alignment.
• 1H short MAs (not explicitly computed): Price briefly rode above very short MAs during the bounce, but roll-over near 0.210–0.211 shows those MAs likely flattening/turning down again as momentum stalls.

4. Momentum (RSI, MACD)

• Daily RSI: Bear regime, likely mid-30s to low-40s after the breakdown. It bounced slightly today but remains below neutral 50, consistent with trend continuation rather than reversal.
• 1H RSI: Pushed into low- to mid-50s during the bounce, now curling down toward 50 as price failed at 0.210–0.211. This is classic for a weak, counter-trend bounce losing steam near resistance.
• Daily MACD: Below zero with negative histogram post 9/22–9/25 slide. The histogram may be narrowing slightly with today’s limp bounce, but signal remains bear-biased unless daily closes reclaim 0.214–0.218.
• 1H MACD: Flipped positive into the bounce, then started rolling over as 0.210–0.211 rejected; supports a near-term fade setup.

5. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• Daily BBs (20,2): With 20D mean near ~0.236, lower band has expanded down into ~0.203–0.205. Yesterday tagged the lower band; today mean-reverted a touch. Staying pinned near/below the lower band often leads to grinding continuation, with shallow bounces getting sold.
• 1H BBs: Contraction then mild expansion into the intraday pop; now contracting again while price sits under the 1H mid-band around 0.208–0.209. A fresh expansion from here, given trend context, likely favors a downside break to test 0.205 then 0.200.
• ATR (14D, approximate): ~0.011–0.013. A 24h swing of 5%–7% (about 0.010–0.014) is typical; thus a 0.210 short can reasonably target 0.201–0.200 within 24h.

6. Fibonacci mapping

• Major swing: 0.3348 (7/18 high) → 0.20098 (9/25 low). Range = 0.13383. • 23.6% = 0.2326, 38.2% = 0.2529, 50% = 0.2679, 61.8% = 0.2837. • Current price 0.208 is far below 23.6%; any bounce into 0.232–0.253 would be a counter-trend rally and sell zone unless accompanied by strong reclaim.
• Minor swing: 0.2505 (9/18 high) → 0.20098 (9/25 low). Range = 0.0495. • 38.2% = 0.2199, 50% = 0.2257, 61.8% = 0.2316. • The intraday bounce failed below even 38.2% (0.2199), underscoring weakness.
• Measured move from the flag: Flagpole ~ 0.214 → 0.201 ≈ 0.013. If the rising flag from 0.201–0.210 breaks lower near ~0.208, extension projects ~0.195–0.196. In 24h, a full extension may be ambitious, but a sweep of 0.200–0.201 is realistic.

7. Volume and OBV

• Daily: 9/25 sell-off expanded volume, consistent with distribution/markdown phase. 9/26 bounce volume is inferior to the breakdown, typical of a corrective climb.
• OBV trend (qualitative): Lower highs since mid-July and fresh lower low into 9/25; no meaningful bullish divergence vs price lows. This rejects the case for sustained reversal.
• Intraday: 17:00–20:00 prints show higher activity into the stall by 0.210–0.211, signaling supply appearing overhead.

8. VWAP and Anchored VWAP

• Intraday session VWAP 9/26: Near ~0.206–0.208 (given early prints 0.203–0.206 then push to 0.210 and fade). Price oscillating around VWAP late session with sellers capping above suggests distribution near the mean.
• Anchored VWAP from the 9/22 breakdown bar (start of the sharp daily markdown) is likely around 0.213–0.215. Price remains below that anchor and earlier attempts to push up were rejected under it. As long as ALGO stays sub-AVWAP(9/22), rallies are suspect.

9. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Daily: Price below Kumo; Tenkan below Kijun; lagging span likely below price and cloud. Full bear regime. Any rebound to the Kijun (often near the 20–26 period mean) would be in the 0.23 area and should attract sellers unless a strong catalyst emerges.
• 1H: Price likely below/at a thin cloud with repeated rejections pushing Tenkan/Kijun flat-to-down. A bearish TK-cross and price below cloud favors continuation lower.

10. Wyckoff lens and liquidity

• Behavior since mid-July looks like distribution → markdown. The break of 0.231–0.234 confirmed markdown continuation.
• Current 1H pattern is a classic weak rally (automatic rally/test) after an aggressive downswing; failure below prior breakdown and under AVWAP marks it as a likely upthrust after distribution (UTAD on micro timeframe) into 0.210–0.212.
• Liquidity: Obvious round-number stops lie below 0.200. A sweep/wick sub-0.200 to 0.198–0.199 would not be surprising if the flag breaks in the next 24h.

11. Pattern synthesis

• Bear flag: Rallied from 0.201 to 0.210 within a rising channel and now losing momentum at resistance, indicating increased odds of breakdown.
• Mean reversion: While a push to 0.212–0.214 is possible, failure to reclaim that band keeps daily mean reversion incomplete and sellers in control.

12. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (≈55%): Fade the 0.210–0.212 supply, break 0.205–0.206, probe 0.200–0.201 liquidity. Close likely 0.203–0.206 after a stop run.
• Alternate bullish (≈25%): Squeeze through 0.212, tag 0.214–0.218 (post-dump shelf), possibly 0.219–0.226 (Fib 38.2%–50% of minor swing) if momentum expands. Requires strong volume and 1H close above 0.214.
• Range/indecision (≈20%): Hold 0.205–0.212 band, compressing BBs before Sunday open. Probability reduced by the dominant daily trend and fresh breakdown.

Trade Plan and Execution Logic

• Bias: Short rallies into supply consistent with multi-timeframe downtrend, weak bounce quality, and proximity of untapped liquidity below 0.200.
• Optimal entry (sell/short): 0.2108 (limit) within the 0.210–0.212 supply band that repeatedly rejected today; aligns with 1H resistance and below the 9/22 AVWAP.
• Take profit (24h tactical): 0.2015, just above the 0.200 round and 9/25 low area (0.20098) to capture a likely liquidity probe without getting too greedy. Allows for partial fills on a sweep and accounts for typical 24h ATR.
• Risk control (not required by prompt but prudent): A protective stop could be set near 0.2148–0.2155 (above intraday supply and approaching the AVWAP cluster). That yields an R multiple ~ (0.2108–0.2015) / (0.2149–0.2108) ≈ 0.0093 / 0.0041 ≈ 2.3R, acceptable for a 24h tactical short.

Final Synthesis and 24h Prediction

• The preponderance of evidence (trend, structure, MA alignment, momentum regime, volume, VWAP, bear flag) supports selling into 0.210–0.212 with expectation of a retest/sweep of 0.200–0.201 in the next 24 hours.
• Predicted 24h range: 0.199–0.214, with bias toward a downside flush followed by minor mean reversion into 0.203–0.206 at period end.

Conclusion

• Decision: Sell (Short Position)
• Open (limit): 0.2108
• Close (take-profit): 0.2015
• Rationale: Aligns with multi-timeframe bearish context, overhead supply confluence, weak bounce quality, and proximity to downside liquidity at the 0.200 handle.