APT: Fade the $2.00 Wall — Short the 38.2% Bounce

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis for Aptos (APT)

Timeframe context and data sanity

• Dataset spans daily candles from 2025-09-04 through 2025-12-02 (intraday hours for 2025-12-01 to 2025-12-02). Current spot is $1.9015 at 2025-12-02 12:15 UTC.
• Structure: prolonged downtrend from early October highs (~$5.55) into a cascading decline, now sub-$2.00 with an intraday pop to ~$1.953 before fading.

1. Trend structure and market regime

• Primary trend (daily): Strongly bearish. A sequence of lower highs and lower lows: LHs ~3.58 (Oct 26) → 3.33 (Nov 1) → 3.29 (Nov 10) → 3.03 (Nov 12) → 2.91 (Nov 18) → 2.74 (Nov 20) → 2.35 (Nov 24–27) → 2.16 (Nov 28) → 2.05 (Nov 30). LLs ~3.19 (Oct 17) → 2.78 (Nov 3) → 2.39 (Nov 21) → 1.872 (Dec 1).
• Intraday (hourly): A micro-bounce from ~1.848–1.874 toward 1.95 at 06:00–07:00 UTC, rejection at 1.95–1.953, then mean-reversion to high 1.87s and back to ~1.90.
• Regime: capitulatory, heavy-distribution downtrend with intermittent bear-rally pops; current action looks like a relief bounce within a dominant bearish channel.

2. Moving averages and slope analysis

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~2.51, meaning price is ~24% below the 20D mean. The slope is decisively down. This magnitude of downside deviation typically implies two possibilities within 24h: (i) a short, sharp relief rally toward nearby resistance, or (ii) continued band-walk lower with low-tide retests. The violent down-slope favors selling bounces into resistance rather than bottom-fishing.
• 50-day SMA (qualitative): well above price (>3), reinforcing strong higher-timeframe bearish pressure. No bullish MA crossovers in sight.

3. Momentum: RSI, Stochastics, MACD

• Daily RSI(14) estimate: extreme oversold (~4–7 range by calculation), after a long string of net down closes (only 3 small up days in the last 14). This screams “bear-market bounce risk,” but not a confirmed trend change.
• Stochastics (qualitative): buried sub-20 with a tentative turn up—typical of early-stage relief rallies that often stall at first resistance (R1/38.2% fib/round numbers).
• MACD (daily, qualitative): deeply negative with histogram contracting slightly today—momentum loss in the selloff, but signal below zero and below signal line historically favors fade-the-bounce setups.

4. Volatility and range: ATR, Keltner, Bollinger

• Recent daily true ranges hover ~0.17–0.20. ATR(14) likely ~0.20–0.23. Expectation for next 24h: a 8–12% realized range is plausible around $1.90 (roughly $0.15–$0.23 absolute). That places a typical envelope from ~$1.78 to ~$2.05.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2, qualitative): Price hugging/sub-lower band. Today’s spike tagged near the lower band underside and reverted; continued band-walk is common in strong downtrends. Mean reversion attempts often stall near the 20D mid-band (far above) or interim resistances (R1/fib/round levels).
• Keltner Channels (ATR-based): price near/below lower channel limit—a textbook area to expect countertrend rallies that are optimal to fade into structure.

5. Support/resistance mapping and levels confluence

• Immediate support: 1) $1.87–1.875 (Dec 1 close/pivot zone and today’s session base); 2) $1.85 (today’s intraday low vicinity); 3) $1.82 (Dec 1 low area / S1-S2 projection risk zone).
• Overhead resistance: 1) $1.95–1.97 (today’s high $1.953 and daily pivot R1 confluence); 2) $2.00–$2.05 (psychological + fib 50–61.8% of the last leg + daily R2 cluster); 3) $2.16–$2.27 (prior breakdown shelf, unlikely in 24h without a squeeze).
• Key observation: Today’s high rejected the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the Nov 28–Dec 1 downswing and landed just shy of daily R1—clean confluence rejection.

6. Fibonacci analysis

• Last impulse leg: ~2.158 (Nov 28 close/prox) down to ~1.819 (Dec 1 low). Retracement map: 38.2% ≈ $1.949, 50% ≈ $1.989, 61.8% ≈ $2.028. Today tagged ~1.953 (38.2%) and failed—a typical spot for a bear-rally fade. If price overshoots, 50–61.8% at $1.99–$2.03 is the next likely sell zone.

7. Classical chart patterns

• Descending channel / falling wedge variants on daily: price riding the lower boundary. Intraday pop resembles a “bear flag”/rising wedge that already met resistance at ~1.95. Probability-weighted path is a lower-high near 1.95–1.98 followed by a retest of 1.85–1.87.

8. Candlestick signals

• Nov 30: small-bodied candle near lows (no strong reversal). Dec 1: long red close near the low (impulsive). Today: green rebound into resistance with upper-shadow rejection intraday. This reads as a bear-rally day, not a reversal day (so far).

9. Volume analytics

• Down days (Nov 21, Nov 28, Dec 1) show elevated volume—distribution profile on weakness. Today’s bounce printed a volume spurt on the 06:00–07:00 UTC breakout, then tapered—consistent with short covering rather than new strong demand. Overhead supply likely reloads at $1.95–$2.05.

10. Intraday reference tools: Pivot points, VWAP, micro-structure

• Daily floor pivots using Dec 1 (H/L/C = 1.9884/1.8189/1.8720): • Pivot P ≈ $1.8931; price is oscillating just above P (neutral-intraday bias).
  • R1 ≈ $1.9673; today’s rejection at ~1.953 sits right below R1—classic sell zone.
  • R2 ≈ $2.0625; only reachable on a strong squeeze, where sellers likely re-engage.
  • S1 ≈ $1.7978; S2 ≈ $1.7237 (risk tail if trend resumes hard).
• Intraday VWAP (qualitative): Price popped above VWAP on the morning spike then mean-reverted; current action hovers close to VWAP/P—classic setup to sell strength back into the R1/fib/round-number stack.

11. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Daily: price below Tenkan and Kijun with a thick overhead Kumo—bearish. 1H/4H: Tenkan may have ticked above Kijun on the bounce but price remains below/near cloud base; expect cloud resistance between ~$1.95 and $2.02.

12. Elliott wave framing (tactical)

• From the late-November impulse lower, Dec 1 likely marks a minor wave-5 exhaustion low. Today’s move is consistent with an ABC corrective bounce. A textbook ABC often terminates around the 38.2–61.8% retracement before the dominant downtrend resumes. That maps to $1.95–$2.03—ideal fade zone within 24 hours.

13. DeMark/Sequential (qualitative)

• Extended downside likely completed a 9-count or nearing it; today’s relief fits a perfected exhaustion bounce but without confirmation of a trend reversal. High-probability tactic remains to sell into first resistance.

14. Risk/reward and scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Price tests $1.95–$1.97 (R1/38.2%) again, stalls, and fades toward $1.85–$1.87.
• Squeeze case (25%): Momentum pushes through $1.97 → tags $1.99–$2.03 (50–61.8% + round $2.00) before supply caps it; fade likely from that higher band.
• Breakdown case (20%): No retest of resistance; drift under pivot $1.893 leads directly to $1.85 and potentially $1.82 if risk-off accelerates.

15. Strategy synthesis and execution plan

• Bias: Sell strength (fade the bounce) in a structurally bearish tape.
• Optimal entry: Layer shorts into resistance where multiple tools converge:
  • Primary entry: ~$1.955 (just below today’s 38.2% retracement tag and under R1).
  • If overrun, secondary adds near $1.995–$2.025 (50–61.8%/round $2.00).
• 24h Profit target focus: $1.85 area (near today’s session base and visible support); deeper extension could see $1.82, but $1.85 is the higher-probability objective in one session.
• Why not chase here? With price ~$1.90, reward improves by letting it rally back into the confluence band; trend traders capitalize on fading into structure rather than shorting mid-range.

16. Key confirmations/invalidation to watch intra-session

• Confirming weakness: Another rejection wick between $1.95–$1.97, falling back under pivot/VWAP; hourly momentum rolling over, MACD histogram turning more negative.
• Invalidation risks: A sustained hold above ~$2.03 (61.8% fib + round number) would warn of a larger relief leg toward $2.06 (R2) or even $2.16. That would not invalidate the bigger downtrend, but it would delay the short’s timing; for the next 24h, it reduces the probability of immediate fade.

Bottom line

• The dominant trend is down; today’s bounce is corrective and already rejected at a textbook confluence (38.2% fib / under R1 / sub-$2 round). The higher-probability, higher-quality trade in the next 24 hours is to Sell (short) a retest of $1.95–$1.97 and target a move into $1.85.