APT’s Rally Fizzles: Sell the 1.57 Bounce for a Run at 1.50–1.49

Aptos (APT) – next 24h trading plan built from multi-timeframe confluence

1. Multi-timeframe market structure

• Daily trend: Strong downtrend since early October. Sequence of lower highs and lower lows from ~5.23 (Oct 2) to the current 1.55 area. Recent swing low printed at 1.4216 (Dec 18), followed by a two-day relief bounce into 1.6959 (Dec 20), then resumed selling into 1.55 today. Structure remains bearish; bounces have been corrective.
• 4H/Hourly structure (last 24h): Clear intraday downtrend with lower highs: 1.6504 → 1.6228 → 1.6186 → 1.6101; breakdown at 13:00 with heavy volume to 1.559; weak reactive bounce to 1.576; then lower high 1.5753 and fresh lower low 1.5517 at 21:00. Market is trending down within a descending intraday channel.

2. Moving averages (trend filters)

• Daily 200D/100D SMA (approx): Far above current price (given multi-month slide), confirming macro downtrend.
• Daily 50D SMA (approx): Likely near ~3.0–3.3 given November levels; price is well below, reinforcing trend weakness.
• Daily 20D EMA/SMA (approx): ~2.0–2.1 based on last 20 sessions; price trades materially beneath. This situates price on the lower volatility envelope where trend continuation is common unless a pronounced momentum divergence appears.
• Short-term EMAs (9/12/21-day approx): 9–12 EMA cluster estimated ~1.56–1.60 after the bounce; current 1.5525 is at/below the 9 EMA and below 12/21 EMA cluster → short-term momentum tilted bearish. On hourly, price is below 20/50 EMAs, which are rolling over—signals favor short entries on rallies.

3. Momentum: RSI, Stochastic, MACD

• Daily RSI (14) estimate: mid 30s to low 40s post-bounce, turning down—bearish-to-neutral, not deeply oversold like Dec 18 but weak. Room remains for further downside before oversold constraints kick in.
• Hourly RSI: near 30–35 after the 13:00 breakdown and subsequent drift to 1.5517. Minor chance of a small mean-reversion bounce into 1.57–1.58, but no evidence of a strong reversal yet.
• Daily MACD: Likely below zero and flirting with a failed bullish cross after the brief bounce—bearish bias. Hourly MACD stays negative and declining, consistent with continuation lower.
• Stochastic (hourly): Oversold cycling with shallow upticks—typical in trends; tends to reset via weak bounces rather than full reversals.

4. Volatility and envelopes

• 14-day ATR (approx): ~0.12 (ranges of 0.09–0.18 common recently). A one-day move of 5–8% is well within norms at this price level.
• Daily Bollinger Bands (20,2) estimate: Price is near/below the lower band area following the post-bounce roll-over. This typically allows either: (a) a small band-mean retest (1.57–1.60) that invites fresh sellers, or (b) a walk-the-band decline into prior swing supports (1.53 → 1.50 → 1.48).

5. Volume, OBV, and VWAP context

• Volume character: The sharp 13:00 sell candle carried heavy volume (~6M), confirming supply dominance at/after 1.61 breakdown. Subsequent upticks had lighter volume, indicating lack of committed dip buyers.
• OBV (qualitative): Sloped down for weeks, briefly stabilized during the bounce, and now rolling over—distribution persists.
• Intraday anchored VWAP (approx from today’s Asia open): Likely above price (~1.58–1.60); price holding below anchored VWAP is a bearish tell. Rallies toward VWAP are sell opportunities.

6. Ichimoku (trend + equilibrium)

• Daily: Price below cloud; Tenkan below Kijun; bearish alignment. Kijun (baseline) above price (~1.7→1.9 context), implying mean reversion room exists but still a headwind.
• 1H/4H: Price below cloud; cloud is thickening and angled down. Tenkan/Kijun resistance band likely ~1.57–1.60. Rejections expected on first tests.

7. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing measured: Dec 18 low 1.4216 → Dec 20 high 1.6959 (range 0.2743).
  • 38.2% retrace: 1.5911 (price lost this intraday)
  • 50% retrace: 1.5588 (now below)
  • 61.8% retrace: 1.5264 (next magnet)
  • 78.6% retrace: ~1.4803 (secondary magnet if momentum accelerates) Current trade sits between the 50% and 61.8%; typical path is a test of 61.8% (1.526) and, if weakness persists, a probe toward 78.6% (~1.48). This aligns with structural supports and ATR capacity.

8. Horizontal support/resistance map

• Supports: 1.551–1.553 (intraday; currently probing), 1.526 (Fib 61.8%), 1.505–1.50 (psych), 1.483–1.486 (Dec 17 low cluster), 1.422 (Dec 18 spike low).
• Resistances: 1.568–1.575 (intraday sell zone), 1.590–1.600 (Fib 38.2%/VWAP vicinity), 1.620–1.638 (prior highs), 1.659–1.696 (Dec 19–20 highs). The 1.57–1.60 band is a confluence shelf of EMA/Tenkan/VWAP/Fib—high-probability re-sell area.

9. Candles and patterns

• Hourly: Post-breakdown bear flag from ~14:00–19:00 followed by further weakness; now tracking a descending channel. No bullish engulfing or capitulation wick has printed at new lows; sellers remain in control.
• Daily: The bounce produced two green candles, then two red bars reclaiming >50% of the bounce range—classical failed rally structure.

10. Pivot points (classic, based on 12/20 H/L/C = 1.6959/1.5935/1.6107)

• Pivot P ≈ 1.6334; R1 ≈ 1.6733; S1 ≈ 1.5709; S2 ≈ 1.5310. Today’s action slipped below S1 and is drifting toward S2. This corroborates a 1.53 test if selling persists.

11. Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• The advance 1.4216 → 1.6959 fits as an A-B-C corrective rally against the broader downtrend. Loss of 50%/38.2% retracements without impulsive buy follow-through suggests corrective rally likely ended; now a C’/impulsive leg down is unfolding targeting 1.526 then 1.48.

12. Scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (60%): Fade bounces into 1.568–1.575; price rolls over toward 1.526 (61.8% Fib) with an extension wick 1.50–1.49 if momentum accelerates. Close near 1.50–1.53.
• Rebound case (30%): Oversold bounce expands toward 1.590–1.600 (Fib 38.2%/VWAP/EMA cluster); sellers re-assert there; day ends 1.55–1.58.
• Squeeze case (10%): Strong short-covering through 1.60 → 1.62; invalidates immediate short. Would require reclaim and hold above 1.60–1.62 to challenge 1.64–1.66.

13. Risk management and execution plan

• Bias: Short on strength. Trend, momentum, volume distribution, and Fib structure support selling rallies rather than knife-catching.
• Optimal entry: 1.568 (limit sell) in the 1.568–1.575 supply pocket (EMA/VWAP/Ichimoku/Tenkan confluence) to improve R:R and allow for a small liquidity sweep.
• Take profit: 1.492, just above the 0.786 retrace objective cluster (1.48) and ahead of the Dec 17 low (1.483). This captures the likely extension while avoiding the bid wall that often forms near 1.48–1.50.
• (Not required but prudent) Invalidation/stop: 1.596–1.605 area on a closing or sustained hold above; a reclaim of 1.60–1.62 flips intraday momentum and implies a rotation back to 1.63–1.65.
• Expected move vs ATR: Entry 1.568 to TP 1.492 is ~0.076 (~4.85%); from current price 1.5525 to 1.492 is ~0.0605 (~3.9%). Both sit inside a 1-day ATR, thus feasible within 24h.

Bottom line: With structure trending down, key EMAs overhead, momentum negative, and price below key pivots and VWAP, the path of least resistance remains lower. Best practice is to sell a bounce into 1.568–1.575 and ride to 1.492, with flexibility to scale out around 1.526 and 1.505 if tape accelerates.

24-hour price path projection

• Likely intraday retrace to 1.565–1.575 (sell zone), then a drift lower: 1.555 → 1.540 → 1.528; if broken, extension wicks to 1.50–1.49 before stabilizing. Risk trigger is a firm reclaim above 1.590–1.600.