APT Reclaims the 1.90s: Post-Impulse Bull-Flag Setup Aiming for a 2.00 Retest

Market snapshot (APT)

• Current price: 1.918
• Last daily candle (2026-01-13): O 1.766 / H 1.983 / L 1.765 / C 1.918
  → Strong bullish expansion day (+~8.6% close-to-close from 1.766), with a high-volume impulse.
• Context (multi-month): Clear downtrend from mid-Oct (~3.5) into mid-Dec (~1.45 low), then a base + rebound into early Jan (~1.96–2.01 highs), followed by a pullback to ~1.77, and today a momentum re-acceleration.

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1) Trend, structure, and market regime

1.1 Higher-timeframe structure (daily)

• The Oct→Dec sequence shows lower highs + lower lows (primary bearish).
• From Dec 18 low ~1.42 to Jan 2 high ~1.91: a recovery leg.
• Jan 6–12: pullback / consolidation (1.96 → 1.77) without breaking Dec lows.
• Jan 13: breakout from the short-term pullback channel, reclaiming ~1.90s.

Interpretation: The longer-term trend is still “repairing,” but the intermediate swing is attempting to flip bullish (higher low vs Dec, then strong impulsive push).

1.2 Intraday structure (hourly)

• Price stepped up from ~1.77–1.82 base to 1.95–1.98 spike, then mean-reverted to ~1.89–1.92 and stabilized.
• This is typical of an impulse → retrace → consolidation pattern (often a bull-flag / pennant behavior) rather than immediate trend exhaustion, provided support holds.

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2) Support/Resistance mapping (price action)

Key supports

• 1.90–1.89: intraday pullback low/acceptance area after the spike.
• 1.87–1.85: prior intraday breakout zone.
• 1.82: pre-breakout consolidation shelf.
• 1.77–1.76: major near-term swing support (Jan 11–13 base).

Key resistances

• 1.95–1.96: post-impulse supply (where price faded).
• 1.98–2.01: major resistance band (today’s high ~1.983 and early-Jan highs ~2.00–2.01).
• 2.05–2.10 (projection/next): if 2.01 breaks with continuation.

Implication: The market is currently compressed under a major ceiling (1.98–2.01). Next 24h likely hinges on whether it retests and fails (pullback) or retests and breaks (continuation).

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3) Momentum & mean reversion signals (multi-technique)

3.1 Candle/impulse analysis

• Daily candle has a large real body and wide range (1.765 → 1.983). Such range expansion days often lead to:
  • a continuation attempt (second leg up) or
  • a “cool-off” (sideways to slightly down) before continuation.

Given the close near 1.92 (well above open, but below the high), it suggests profit-taking near 1.98 but still bullish control.

3.2 Volatility / Range logic

• Today’s daily range is ~0.218 (~11–12% of price). After volatility expansion, markets commonly contract the next session.
• For the next 24h, the higher-probability path is chop/consolidation with an upward bias unless 1.89 fails.

3.3 Breakout quality (volume confirmation)

• Daily volume on Jan 13 is high relative to recent days, aligning with a breakout attempt.
• Intraday, the largest volume cluster coincides with the run into ~1.95–1.98 (momentum participants). That often creates a support “volume shelf” on pullbacks around 1.90–1.92.

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4) Moving-average style inference (no full calc, structure-based)

• Price has recently traded 1.76–1.96 over the last ~week; current 1.918 implies price is likely above short-term averages (e.g., 5–10 day) and battling around intermediate averages.
• Reclaiming the 1.90–1.92 area after spending days below ~1.85–1.88 is typically a bullish recapture.

Net: short-term trend up; medium-term is transitional.

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5) Fibonacci / measured-move framing

Using the visible swing Jan 12 low ~1.735 → Jan 13 high ~1.983:

• 38.2% retrace ≈ 1.888
• 50% retrace ≈ 1.859
• 61.8% retrace ≈ 1.830

Price holding ~1.91–1.92 means it is above the 38.2% retrace, consistent with a strong impulse.

Measured move idea: If price clears ~2.01 with acceptance, a next leg of similar magnitude (~0.25) from ~1.83–1.85 base can target roughly 2.05–2.10 region.

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6) Scenario forecast (next 24 hours)

Base case (higher probability): bullish consolidation then retest highs

• Expect range: ~1.89 to ~1.97
• Likely behavior: pullbacks bought near 1.90–1.89, then grind back to 1.95–1.98.

Bull case: breakout continuation

• Trigger: sustained trade above 1.98, then break 2.01.
• Path: 1.98 → 2.01 → 2.05–2.10.

Bear case: failed breakout / bull trap

• Trigger: loss of 1.89 (38.2% retrace) and especially 1.85.
• Path: mean reversion toward 1.83, potentially 1.77.

Overall 24h bias: slightly bullish (continuation attempt), but with high odds of chop under 1.98–2.01 resistance.

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Trading plan (decision + levels)

Decision: Buy (Long)

Rationale: Strong daily impulse with volume, reclaim of 1.90s, structure suggests bull-flag behavior unless 1.89/1.85 breaks.

Optimal open (entry)

• Open Price: 1.895
  (pullback entry near the 38.2% retrace zone / post-impulse acceptance; also near intraday support around 1.89–1.90)

Take-profit (close)

• Close Price: 1.995
  (just below the major resistance band 1.98–2.01 to improve fill probability)

(Risk note for execution: if price fails to hold ~1.89, the bullish setup degrades quickly and the market can revisit ~1.83/1.77.)