Aptos Price Analysis Powered by AI

APT Breaks Down From 1.93: Bearish Retest Setup Targets 1.75 Support

Market context (Daily + Intraday)

Current price: 1.7935

1) Higher-timeframe trend (Daily candles)

Primary trend (Oct → Nov): APT peaked around 3.61 (Oct 26), then transitioned into a clear bearish structure with a series of lower highs / lower lows.
Capitulation leg (Nov 3–4): Sharp selloff from 3.38 → 2.78 → 2.57 on very large volume (186M → 220M). This is typically “distribution → breakdown → forced selling.”
Continuation drift (late Nov → mid Dec): Price bled into the ~2.00 → 1.55 area with multiple failed bounces—classic bear-market behavior.
Recent attempt at reversal (late Dec → early Jan): Rally from ~1.66 to ~1.90–1.97 (Jan 1–5). However, it failed to convert into a new uptrend because follow-through stalled and then rolled over.
Latest daily candle (Jan 15): Open ~1.936, High ~1.946, Low ~1.768, Close 1.7935. This is a strong bearish daily candle (large real body down, wide range) and it breaks down from the 1.90+ region.

Conclusion (Daily): Trend remains bearish-to-neutral, with the most recent day acting as a fresh downside impulse.

2) Structure, support/resistance mapping

Using visible pivots from the provided series:

Nearest resistances (overhead supply):

1.82–1.84: Minor intraday pivot zone (multiple hourly closes clustered; also where price attempted to base late day).
1.86–1.90: Prior short-term support now likely resistance (Jan 6–10 congestion + breakdown area).
1.93–1.95: Today’s breakdown origin and intraday highs; strong sell wall region.

Nearest supports (downside demand):

1.77–1.78: Today’s low region and late-hour prints; immediate support.
1.73–1.75: Prior daily lows (Jan 11–12 zone) and psychological/structural shelf.
1.70–1.72: Repeated daily interaction late Dec and Dec 28–30 area.

Interpretation: Price is currently below key resistance shelves (1.86–1.95) and sitting just above 1.77–1.78. That creates a high-probability “bearish retest” setup: bounce attempts into resistance are likely sold.

3) Momentum & rate-of-change (price action proxy)

Even without computing full indicator values, the sequence provides strong momentum clues:

Jan 13: strong bullish expansion (close ~1.969) on high volume (149M).
Jan 14: failed continuation (close ~1.936).
Jan 15: decisive bearish reversal to 1.793.

This is a common three-step pattern:

expansion up,
stalled follow-through,
sharp reversal down.

Implication: Short-term momentum has flipped down, and the market is likely to mean-revert lower or retest the breakdown before any sustainable recovery.

4) Volatility analysis (range/true range intuition)

Today’s daily range: roughly 1.946 − 1.768 ≈ 0.178 (~9–10% of price). That is elevated.
Elevated volatility after a reversal day often implies continuation risk (follow-through selling), especially when the close is near the lower portion of the day’s range.

Implication: Next 24h risk skews to another test of lows (1.77) and possibly a break to 1.73–1.75.

5) Volume / participation

Daily volumes in the dataset show larger participation on down-moves historically (notably Nov breakdowns) and a meaningful recent surge on Jan 13’s rally (149M) followed by still-high prints.
The Jan 15 selloff occurred with ~103M daily volume—still substantial—suggesting the move is not just thin-liquidity noise.

Implication: Selling pressure appears credible; rallies may attract sellers until price reclaims 1.86–1.90 decisively.

6) Candlestick / pattern read

Jan 15 daily: large bearish body after a failed push earlier in the week = bearish engulfing / reversal-type behavior relative to the prior attempt to hold above ~1.90.
On the hourly, the session shows a sequence of lower lows (break from ~1.92 → 1.89 → 1.84 → 1.80 → 1.77) with only weak rebounds.

Implication: Pattern favors sell-the-rip rather than buy-the-dip (until a base forms).

7) Scenario forecast (next 24 hours)

Base case (highest probability):

A corrective bounce toward 1.82–1.84 (possibly up to 1.86) followed by renewed selling.
Retest of 1.77–1.78, with a decent chance of a downside wick into 1.73–1.75.

Bear continuation case:

If 1.77 breaks with momentum, price can slide to 1.70–1.72 quickly (next visible shelf).

Bull invalidation case (lower probability in 24h):

Reclaim and acceptance above 1.86–1.90; then price could revisit 1.93–1.95. Given the heavy breakdown, this would likely require strong catalyst/flow.

Net: Downward bias over the next 24h, with bounces likely sold beneath 1.86–1.90.

Trade Plan (directional)

Given the reversal impulse and overhead resistance stack, the optimal edge is typically short on a bounce (retest) rather than shorting the exact low.

Decision: Sell (Short)
Optimal open (entry): 1.835 (targets the common retest zone 1.82–1.84 after breakdown; improves R:R vs. shorting at 1.793)
Take-profit (close): 1.745 (aligns with the next support band 1.73–1.75 and allows front-running bids)

(Risk note: if price instead reclaims 1.86–1.90 and holds, the bearish thesis weakens in the short term.)