ATOM: Mean-Reversion Long off 2.78 Fib Support — Targeting a Push to 2.98

Executive summary and 24h bias

• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish (mean-reversion and higher-low structure). Expect oscillation within 2.82–2.98 with a drift toward 2.94–2.98. Key inflection: 2.90–2.95.
• Plan: Buy pullbacks into 2.84–2.86 with take-profit near 2.98. Invalidation on a decisive break below 2.78.

1. Market structure and trend (multi-timeframe)

• Higher timeframe (daily): Post-Oct 10 capitulation (low 2.01 intraday, close ~2.96), price carved a major swing low Nov 3 at 2.505, then staged a relief to 3.101 (Nov 10) and has been correcting. The Nov 13 intraday low at ~2.78 is a higher low versus 2.505, preserving a nascent up-structure within an overarching primary downtrend from late August highs ~4.9.
• Intermediate structure: Since Nov 10’s 3.10 local top, a downward ABC corrective leg appears to have bottomed at 2.78 (Nov 13), aligning with key Fibonacci retracement (see below). Current price 2.86 is reclaiming prior intraday breakdown zone (2.84–2.85), suggesting demand re-emergence.
• Intraday (hourly): Persistent selloff 17:00–19:00 UTC on Nov 13 into 2.78 was followed by a basing sequence with higher lows (2.78 → 2.786 → 2.796) and a push to 2.87–2.88, then orderly pullback holding above 2.85. That sequence signals stabilization and accumulation near session VWAP.

2. Support and resistance map

• Immediate support: 2.84–2.85 (intraday shelf), then 2.80–2.82 (minor), and 2.78 (pivot low, Fib confluence). Deeper: 2.67 (Nov 5 close/Nov 6 pivot), 2.64–2.65.
• Immediate resistance: 2.90 (psychological + micro supply), 2.95 (pivot/VPVR node), 3.00 (round number), 3.04 (Nov 7 closing pivot), 3.10 (Nov 10 close/pivot high).
• Takeaway: The 2.84–2.85 zone is an attractive risk-defined entry with a logical invalidation just under 2.78; overhead, 2.95–3.00 is where supply likely reappears.

3. Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI: Likely mid-40s after a pullback from the Nov 10 swing. Not oversold, but below neutral—room to mean revert toward 50 without being overbought.
• Hourly RSI: Recovered from sub-30 prints at the 2.78 low to mid-40s; minor bullish divergence into the low (price lower low vs RSI higher low) supports the rebound case.
• MACD (daily): Negative but histogram has been contracting since early Nov, consistent with a maturing correction following the Nov 3 low. Any bounce above ~2.95–3.00 could flip histogram positive.
• MACD (hourly): Bullish crossover printed during the 2.78 → 2.86 rebound; momentum now plateauing but above signal—favoring shallow dips being bought.

4. Moving averages and mean reversion

• 20D SMA ≈ 2.96 (computed from the last 20 daily closes). Current price (2.86) is ~3.3% below this mean, creating a mild positive mean-reversion pull toward 2.95–2.96.
• Longer MAs (50D/100D) remain above price given the August–September range near 4+, confirming the bigger downtrend. Short-term long setups should target nearby resistances rather than trend reversals.

5. Volatility and ranges

• Recent daily ATR ~0.16–0.20. With price at ~2.86, a typical 24h range is ~5–7%. That frames a probabilistic band of roughly 2.76–3.05. Given fresh support at 2.78 and heavy supply near 3.00, a tighter working band 2.82–2.98 is reasonable for the next session.
• Bollinger Bands (daily, 20/2): Mid-band ≈ 2.96 (same as 20D SMA). Price below mid, well above prior lower-band extremes from Nov 3; supports a mean-reversion push toward the mid-band.

6. Fibonacci and confluence

• Swing measured: Nov 3 low 2.505 → Nov 10 high 3.101 (Δ=0.596).
  • 38.2%: ~2.872, 50%: ~2.803, 61.8%: ~2.784.
  • The Nov 13 intraday low at ~2.78 tagged the 61.8% precisely, then bounced—classic corrective completion behavior. Current price ~2.86 sits between 38.2% and 50%, consistent with a recovery path toward 2.94–2.98 (near 23.6% at ~2.94 and prior supply).

7. Volume, OBV, and market profile

• Volume spikes: Oct 10 capitulation and Nov 3 selloff showed climactic activity, often preceding durable lows. Post-Nov 3, down days featured diminishing volume, suggesting seller exhaustion.
• OBV (qualitative): Up from Nov 3 bottom and holding flat-to-up through the latest pullback—accumulation bias.
• VPVR/volume nodes (qualitative from price-memory): Heaviest recent transacted volumes clustered near 2.95–3.05; thin liquidity pocket around 2.85–2.90 suggests quick moves between these areas. A push above 2.90 can swiftly probe 2.95–3.00.

8. Ichimoku (intraday emphasis)

• Price trades near/below a thin hourly Kumo but has reclaimed Tenkan; Tenkan > Kijun cross attempted on the bounce. A firm close above ~2.90 would place price above Tenkan/Kijun and begin a cloud test toward ~2.95–3.00.

9. Elliott Wave framing (tactical)

• Larger ABC from Aug highs likely saw a capitulative C leg into Nov 3 (2.505). The leg from 2.505→3.101 can be counted as i–ii–iii–iv–v, with the drop to 2.78 as an A–B–C correction of that impulse. If valid, a new impulse should target 2.98–3.04 first, with potential extension only if 3.04 is reclaimed on volume.

10. Candlestick/price action tells

• Nov 13 hours around 17:00–19:00 carved a long-tailed probe to 2.78 followed by multiple closes back above 2.80 (demand absorption). Subsequent candles stair-stepped higher with contained pullbacks—constructive basing.

11. Statistical/quant modeling snapshot

• Short-horizon mean reversion: Z-score vs 20D mean ≈ -0.56. Historically, z in [-0.7, -0.3] tends to see a drift back toward the mean within 1–3 sessions, barring trend accelerations.
• Risk skew: Downside tail risk below 2.78 opens 2.67 quickly (thin liquidity), while upside to 2.95–3.00 is nearer and more densely traded—favorable short-term R:R for a bounce trade.

12. Scenario analysis (next 24h)

• Base case (55%): Hold above 2.84; push through 2.90, test 2.95–2.98, stall near 3.00. Close 2.93–2.97.
• Bearish risk (25%): Rejection at 2.90; fade to 2.82; brief liquidity sweep to 2.78 before rebid; closing 2.83–2.87.
• Bullish extension (20%): Strong bid/volume through 2.95; tag 3.00–3.04; only sustained if BTC/market tailwinds present.

13. Trade plan and risk management

• Direction: Buy (long), tactical mean-reversion/bounce.
• Entry (optimal): Buy limit 2.848–2.855 aiming to participate on shallow pullbacks into reclaimed intraday shelf (we use 2.848 as the order price). Alternate trigger entry on strength >2.905 if momentum accelerates (not encoded in open price; described for context).
• Take-profit: 2.985 (front-run the 3.00 round number and the 2.95–3.00 supply band).
• Invalidation/stop (not part of output fields but critical): 2.772 (below 61.8% confluence and the 2.78 pivot). That yields approximate R:R ≈ (2.985-2.848)/(2.848-2.772) ≈ 0.137/0.076 ≈ 1.8:1, improving if fills occur closer to 2.84.
• Position sizing: Adjust so that a stop at ~2.772 risks no more than predetermined % of capital. Avoid over-sizing given broader daily downtrend.

Bottom line

• Confluence of a higher low at the 61.8% retracement (2.784), supportive intraday structure, MACD/RSI stabilization, and 20D mean-reversion target near 2.96 favors a tactical long. Expect a grind toward 2.95–2.98 within 24h, with 2.78 as the key invalidation.