Step 1: Long-Term Trend Analysis

Looking at the daily chart, AVAX experienced a strong upward move from ~15.99 on 2025-04-06 to a local high at 26.74 on 2025-05-12—a 67% rally in just over a month. Following this, there was a period of sharp volatility and lower highs, with notable distribution volume on the peaks (see 2025-05-10, 2025-05-12, 2025-05-15, and 2025-05-23). Since late May, AVAX corrected sharply down to 18.79 on 2025-06-05 but has since rebounded to current levels around 21.36. Volatility expanded considerably during this period, with a series of lower highs but higher lows forming in recent sessions, suggesting the emergence of a new trading range and potential trend change.

Step 2: Volume Profile and Market Structure

High volume accompanied the major top (May 9–15), signaling heavy distribution. Since then, volume during the down move remained elevated (notably 607M on 2025-05-30), indicating forced liquidations/exits. The bounce off 18.79 on June 5 was supported by strong volume (476M), followed by stable but tapering participation as price recovered to 21.36. This points to initial capitulation followed by buyers absorbing supply, a sign of possible accumulation.

Step 3: Candlestick and Price Action Patterns

The recent drop (late May-early June) was steep but quickly reversed by a bullish engulfing candle (June 6–7), followed by steady gains without major upper wicks—signaling strong buying with little profit-taking pressure. Latest intraday range (June 8 hourly) shows a continuation pattern: higher lows and higher closes per hour, culminating in a breakout through June 8th’s local resistance (~21.15–21.20) and closing above it. No distinct reversal candlesticks formed at the current price—suggesting upside momentum remains intact.

Step 4: Support & Resistance Levels

• Key Resistance (Daily): 21.85 (2025-05-02 high) and 22.19–22.40 (congestion from 2025-04-25 to 2025-05-01).
• Key Support (Daily): 20.00 (psychological), then 19.67 (recent swing low), then ultimate support at 18.80 (2025-06-05 low).
• Immediate Support/Resistance (Hourly): 20.94, then 21.20, then 21.36 (current breakout level). Short-term upside targets: 21.85 (minor) then 22.20–22.40 (major).

Step 5: Moving Averages

• Short-Term (10 & 20 EMA): Price now trades above both hourly and 4-hourly moving averages, which are turning upward, supporting a short-term bullish bias.
• Exponential 50/100 Average: After crossing below during the May dump, price recaptured the 50EMA on June 7 and is currently testing above the 100EMA level, indicating bullish momentum is gaining traction without being overextended.

Step 6: Trend and Momentum Oscillators

• RSI (14-day): After dipping to oversold (30–35) on June 5, it’s now recovered to neutral-bullish (48–55), signaling momentum is positive but not overbought.
• MACD: Active 4-hour and daily MACD lines are crossing bullishly, with the histogram moving into positive territory—further confirmation of an emerging uptrend.

Step 7: Volatility and Range Expansion/Contraction

• ATR (Average True Range): Daily ATR increased during the May down-move but is now declining as price stabilizes and grinds higher, suggesting a trend transition from volatile capitulation to steady reversal.

Step 8: Elliott Wave/Pattern Recognition

• Potential 5-Wave Correction: May’s decline resembles a completed 5-wave (A-B-C) selloff, with the current price action forming a corrective A-B-C or a possible new impulse (1-2) launch phase. Hourly structure supports this hypothesis, with the impulsive leg likely in progress.
• Chart Patterns: Recent hourly breakout above consolidation hints at a successful reversal of the prior downtrend, with upward channeling indicating continuation.

Step 9: Order Flow and Sentiment Confirmation

• Volumes: Healthy participation on up-candles, especially during breakout (latest hourly candles), shows broadening buyer interest.
• Market Sentiment: Current recovery is not parabolic and appears sustainable; volume clusters support the continuation scenario.

Step 10: Combined Signal Assessment & Strategy Formulation

• Short-term technicals (MA, MACD, RSI, ATR) all align bullishly, showing emergent positive momentum after a washout phase.
• Price broke and closed above both recovery resistance levels (20.94 & 21.20), now finding support at broken resistance—classic confirmation of a sustained pivot.
• Despite pronounced recent volatility, the correction looks played out; new higher lows suggest the path of least resistance is higher.

Step 11: Risk Assessment and Trade Plan

• Stop Loss Zone: Just below 20.94 (formerly-resistance-now-support, aligns with recent hourly lows); as an extra precaution, slightly below 20.80.
• Upside Targets: Initial 21.85 (May 2 high), then 22.20–22.40 (major resistance for profit-taking in next 12–24 hours).

Conclusion and Trading Decision

AVAX has completed a healthy correction, undergone a high-volume reversal, reclaimed technical levels, and now shows strong bullish momentum with ample headroom before next major resistance. Bias is for continuation higher over the next 24 hours.

Entry: Buy on a retest or within a small pullback to 21.20–21.35 (current/just-below), exit into 22.20 zone.

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Summary

• Technicals strongly favor another leg up toward the 22.20–22.40 range within 24h.
• Ideal entry is on minor intra-hour dips toward 21.20–21.36 support zone.
• Decision: Buy (Long). Target: 22.20. Suggested stop: Below 20.80.