AVAX: Dip-Buy Setup Aiming for Pivot R2 — 31.5 in Sight Within 24 Hours

AVAX multi-timeframe technical playbook (24h outlook)

1. Market structure and trend context

• Daily trend (last ~3 months): A strong July–mid‑Sept advance from ~18 to 35.23 (9/18), followed by a corrective downswing to 28.66 (9/25), then a rebound to 30.01 (9/28) and 30.73 now. Structure is transitioning from correction to recovery: higher low at 28.79 (9/27) above 28.66 (9/25), and successive higher closes since 9/27.
• 4H/Hourly trend (last 24–36h): Clear sequence of higher highs/higher lows. Today lifted from ~29.35–29.45 to a 20:00 UTC high at 30.78, closing the last hourly prints around 30.73. Buyers defending shallow pullbacks (30.15–30.20, 30.35–30.48 zones).
• Key levels from daily chart: • Support: 28.66 (9/25 swing low), 28.79 (9/27 close), 29.11 (9/26 close), psychologically 30.00.
  • Resistance: 31.17 (Fib 38.2% retrace from 35.23→28.66), 31.95 (Fib 50%), 33.65–33.73 (9/22–9/23 closes), 35.23 (cycle high).

2. Moving averages (trend filters)

• Daily 20SMA (approx): ~30.81 based on the last 20 closes (9/09–9/28). Price at 30.73 sits fractionally below/near the midline, suggesting a test/reclaim attempt.
• Daily 50SMA (approx): Likely below price given months-long uptrend after July; medium-term trend remains constructive.
• Hourly EMAs (qualitative): Price action above fast/medium EMAs intraday (20/50), with persistent pullback buying—momentum tilt up.
  Interpretation: Near the daily 20SMA inflection; intraday MAs favor continuation to next resistance band (31.1–31.2).

3. Momentum indicators

• RSI (daily, qualitative): After the 9/18 overbought spike, RSI cooled during the correction; the rebound toward 30 now likely pushes RSI back toward the mid‑50s range—bullish improving momentum without being overbought.
• RSI (hourly, qualitative): Rising with price, showing strong momentum but not showing classic bearish divergence into the 30.78 print; shallow pullbacks imply healthy uptrend.
• MACD (daily, qualitative): Histogram likely turned up after the 9/25 low; signal line cross near/underway—supports early stage of a fresh daily upswing.
• MACD (hourly): Positive and expanding on today’s push—bullish for the next session. Conclusion: Momentum backdrop supports further upside probing toward 31.17 first.

4. Volatility and ranges

• Daily ATR (recent): Large expansion into 9/18–9/25, then moderating; recent daily ranges ~1.5–2.5. A 24h move of +/−1.0–1.8 is reasonable.
• Bollinger Bands (daily, qualitative): Price is migrating from lower band area back toward the mid‑band (near the 20SMA). Room exists to tag upper half of the envelope (31–32) if momentum persists.
  Interpretation: Volatility supports a push of +0.8 to +1.5 from current, sufficient to test 31.2–31.7 within 24h, while allowing intraday dips to ~30.2–30.4.

5. Fibonacci mapping (9/18 high → 9/25 low)

• Swing: H = 35.232, L = 28.661, Range ≈ 6.571.
• Retracements from L:
  • 23.6% ≈ 30.21
  • 38.2% ≈ 31.17
  • 50% ≈ 31.95
  • 61.8% ≈ 32.72
  Current price (30.73) is above 23.6% and below 38.2%, suggesting the next magnet is 31.17. A clean break of 31.17 would open 31.95 (50%).

6. Classical pivots (derived from 9/28 H/L/C)

• H = 30.126, L = 27.964, C = 30.008 → Pivot P ≈ 29.366.
• R1 ≈ 30.768 (tapped at 30.78 today), S1 ≈ 28.606, R2 ≈ 31.527, R3 ≈ 32.929.
  Interpretation: Price has broken above P and met R1. The next attractor within 24h is R2 ≈ 31.53, aligning with Fib cluster (just under the 50% retrace at 31.95) and prior horizontal supply. A tactical target near 31.5 has strong confluence.

7. Volume, breadth, and accumulation read

• Daily volume: Spiked on 9/10–9/23 advance; pullback into 9/25 on heavy participation; rebound since 9/27 accompanied by steady participation—typical of accumulation after a correction.
• OBV (qualitative): Recovering, consistent with rising price and higher lows.
• Hourly flows today: Dips were bought quickly around 30.15–30.20 and 30.35–30.48, indicating demand stepping in ahead of round‑number support at 30.00. Conclusion: Accumulation footprint supports an upside continuation attempt.

8. Intraday VWAP and mean‑reversion

• With today’s session opening near 30.01 and multiple hours spent below 30.2 before trending up, an estimated session VWAP is around the low 30s. Current price at 30.7+ sits above VWAP and above the day’s developing value—bullish.
• Expect mean‑reversion dips to be defended around 30.3–30.5 if trend remains intact.

9. Price patterns

• Daily: Bullish wide‑range day on 9/28 following the 9/27 low—resembles a bullish engulfing of the prior day’s body; follow‑through today adds credence.
• Hourly: A rounded base from 9/28–9/29 with a handle-like consolidation near 30.2, then breakout to 30.78—akin to a small cup‑and‑handle. Breakouts often retest the handle area (~30.3–30.5) before next leg higher.

10. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Intraday price is above a likely rising conversion/base line cluster; the cloud backdrop post‑rebound is supportive. This matches the observed higher‑low structure.

11. Wyckoff framing

• 9/25 Selling Climax (28.66) → Automatic Rally → Secondary Test (28.79) → Sign of Strength (9/28 wide‑range up) → Backing up to support intraday and continuing higher today. This is a classic early Markup sequence.

12. Scenario analysis (next 24h)

• Base case (bullish continuation, ~60%): Retest 30.35–30.50, then push to 31.15–31.25 (Fib 38.2%), and extend to 31.45–31.55 (Pivot R2) with potential tails toward 31.7.
• Alt case (range fade, ~30%): Failure at 30.75–30.85 leads to rotation toward 30.00–30.15. Buyers likely defend 29.85–30.15; deeper weakness to 29.60 would threaten the bullish structure.
• Bear case (low probability, ~10%): Break below 29.60 reopens 29.10 then 28.80–28.65; would invalidate the immediate long setup.

13. Trade plan synthesis

• Edge: Confluence of hourly uptrend, reclaim of daily mid‑band, Fib magnet at 31.17 and pivot R2 at 31.53.
• Optimal entry: Stalk a pullback into the breakout retest zone 30.35–30.50 to improve R:R rather than chase the 30.75 print.
• Profit objective: Scale near 31.15–31.25 (first resistance) and hold for 31.45–31.55 (R2 confluence). Given the requirement for a single target, we anchor at 31.52 (near R2).
• Risk consideration (not requested but prudent): A protective stop would sit below 29.85 (below round number and intraday value), preserving favorable R:R.

Bottom line

• Bias: Buy dips. The path of least resistance over the next 24 hours is a continuation toward 31.2 first and 31.5 next, provided 30.15–30.35 holds on pullbacks.