AVAX reclaims the pivot: Buy the dip at 29.90 for a run at 31.15

Executive summary and bias

• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish (grind higher) as AVAX reclaimed the daily pivot and printed a V‑shaped intraday recovery with improving momentum. Expect a test of 30.60–30.80 and a probe toward 31.10–31.20 (first fib/pivot confluence). Pullbacks to ~29.7–29.9 likely get bought unless 29.5 fails.
• Plan: Buy the dip into 29.7–29.9 with profit-taking into 31.1 area. Invalidation on sustained trade below 29.5.

1. Multi-timeframe price structure

• Higher-timeframe (daily) context: Strong impulsive advance from late Aug lows (~22–26) to a mid-Sep spike high at 35.23 (2025-09-18) on the largest volume of the sequence (2.21B), followed by a corrective pullback to 28.66 (2025-09-25). The 28.66–28.80 zone has acted as a reaction low with higher low at 28.79 (2025-09-27), suggesting the first constructive base after the selloff.
• Intermediate trend: From 9/25 low (28.66) price rebounded to 30.45 (9/29), pulled back intraday to 28.85 today (9/30 16:00), then reclaimed 30.00 and the session VWAP region, closing currently ~30.21. Structure shows a potential change of character: sequence of higher lows (28.66 → 28.79 → 28.85) and attempts at higher highs (30.01 → 30.45). A push through 30.60–30.80 (9/29 high band) would confirm continuation toward 31.1–31.2.
• Intraday (hourly) structure: Today printed a morning fade to 28.85 S2 region, followed by steady bid back above the daily pivot (~30.15). The reclaim suggests dip absorption and a positive close vs the mid of today’s range.

2. Key levels (confluence)

• Supports: 29.90 (round + intraday shelf), 29.70–29.80 (VWAP cluster/4h demand), 29.51 (classic S1), 29.10 (9/26 close), 28.66–28.80 (swing low and 20‑day Donchian low).
• Resistances: 30.60–30.80 (9/29 supply), 31.09–31.20 (R1 31.09 + 38.2% retrace from 35.23→28.66 at 31.17), 31.73 (R2), 32.72 (61.8% fib), 33.65 (9/23 POC area), 35.23 (swing high).
• Pivots (based on 9/29 H 30.79 / L 29.21 / C 30.45): P=30.15, R1=31.09, R2=31.73, S1=29.51, S2=28.57. Price currently sits just above P—bullish if held.

3. Moving averages and trend filters

• Daily SMA(20) ≈ 31.08 (computed from last 20 closes). Price 30.21 is just below the mid-band → room to mean-revert higher.
• Daily EMA(9) ≈ 30.3–30.4 (weighted to recent weakness). Current price is straddling EMA9; a close above supports momentum continuation.
• Daily SMA(50) ≈ 26.5–27.0: Trend still decisively above medium-term baseline—primary trend remains up despite the pullback.
• Implication: Short-term neutral-to-bullish with scope to rotate back toward the 20SMA (31.08) if 30.15 pivot holds.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14, daily): Neutral bias (~47–52 by estimation). Coming off a pullback from overbought mid-Sep; curling higher—bullish inflection if it reclaims 55 on a push to 31+.
• Stochastic (daily): Crossing up out of neutral after briefly dipping—supports upside follow-through.
• MACD (daily): Bearish cross occurred during the 9/18→9/25 unwind; histogram is contracting toward zero as price stabilizes above 30. A bullish cross is plausible on a 31 break, favoring upside continuation.
• ROC(10): Still negative vs 9/20 close but improving; short-term momentum is turning.

5. Volatility, bands, and ranges

• ATR(14, daily) ≈ ~2.0. Expect ±1.8–2.2 swing potential in 24h. From 29.9 entry, a reach to 31.1–31.3 lies well within a 1x ATR move.
• Bollinger Bands(20,2): Mid ~31.08; estimated lower ~26.9 and upper ~35.2 (using recent variance). Price below mid-band with space to tag the mid near 31.1.
• Keltner Channels(20EMA, 1.5*ATR): Mid ~30.7; upper ~33.7; lower ~27.7. Price near mid; bandwidth supports a controlled drift up.
• Donchian 20‑day: High 35.33; Low 28.66; price in lower-mid quartile—room to rotate up.

6. Ichimoku Cloud (daily, approximated)

• Price remains above a rising cloud from the summer base. Tenkan near ~30.5, Kijun ~29.5, Span A > Span B. Today’s recovery above 30 keeps price between Tenkan and Kijun. A Tenkan re‑claim + close above 30.6 would be a strong short-term bullish signal.

7. Fibonacci mapping

• From swing high 35.232 (9/18) to swing low 28.661 (9/25):
  • 38.2% = 31.172 (confluent with R1 31.09)
  • 50% = 31.946
  • 61.8% = 32.720
• Base case: First magnet 31.1–31.2; aggressive extension into 31.7 (R2) possible if momentum expands.

8. Volume analytics and flow

• Massive expansion 9/10 and 9/18 defined the uptrend impulse. The pullback saw shrinking volume into the 28.7–29.1 basin, then rising participation on up days (9/28–9/29), hinting at accumulation. Today’s dip was bought with notable prints in the 19–20 UTC hours and a firming close ~30.2, suggesting buyers active above 29.5.
• OBV/Accumulation (qualitative): Stabilizing and beginning to curl higher after the recent drawdown.
• VWAP (session): Reclaimed into the close (~29.9–30.0 region), a constructive intraday tell.

9. Market structure, supply/demand, and liquidity

• Demand zones: 29.7–29.9 (intraday shelf), 29.1–29.5 (multi-day shelf/S1), 28.6–28.8 (swing low and liquidity pool). These areas saw absorption and responsive buying.
• Supply zones: 30.6–30.8 (local high cluster), 31.1–31.3 (R1 + 38.2% fib), then 31.7–32.0 (R2 pre‑supply). Stops/liquidity likely sit above 30.8 and 31.2.
• BOS/CHoCH: Reclaim of 30.0 and push above 30.05–30.20 intraday highs signals a change of character back to bullish micro‑trend; a takeout of 30.80 would confirm a new short-term higher high.
• Fair Value Gaps: The 29.45–29.95 region was tested and largely filled today; price acceptance above this pocket favors a rotation to the next liquidity band at 30.6–31.2.

10. Pattern diagnostics

• Post-breakout bull flag / corrective channel from 35.2 down to ~28.7 appears to be resolving. Today’s V‑recovery is consistent with a flag breakout attempt if 30.8 gives way. Heikin‑Ashi conversions (conceptually) would show smaller lower wicks vs prior sessions—momentum stabilizing.

11. Quantified scenarios (next 24 hours)

• Base case (≈60%): Hold above P=30.15 and S1=29.51; push through 30.60–30.80 and tag 31.10–31.20 (R1 + 38.2% fib). Close near 30.9–31.2.
• Pullback case (≈30%): Retest 29.90 and possibly 29.70–29.80; buyers defend; second attempt to 30.6–30.8 late session.
• Bear break (≈10%): Lose 29.50 (S1) on volume → probe 29.10 and, if conditions worsen, 28.70–28.85 (S2 vicinity). This would defer the bullish rotation.

12. Risk management and trade design

• Entry: Prefer limit buy on dip at 29.90 (within intraday support/VWAP shelf). Momentum alternative: Stop-entry buy on break 30.62–30.80 if you favor breakout continuation; target remains 31.10–31.20.
• Stop (discretionary, not part of requested output): 29.45 (below S1 and intraday swing), risking ≈ -1.5% to -1.7% from 29.90. Tighter stops risk chop.
• Take-profit: 31.15 (first confluence: R1 + 38.2% fib). Stretch target 31.70 (R2) if momentum expands; partials advisable.
• R:R from 29.90 → 31.15 with 29.45 stop ≈ 2.8:1. Within a 1x ATR move, the primary target is realistic.

13. Final synthesis

• With price back above the daily pivot (30.15), improving intraday structure, neutral but rising momentum, and a clear nearby resistance magnet at 31.1–31.2, the path of least resistance in the next 24 hours skews upward. The trade with best expectancy is to buy a controlled pullback to ~29.9 and target the 31.1 area. Invalidation lives below 29.5 (loss of S1 and structure).

Decision: Buy (Long) on dip to 29.90; target 31.15 within 24h; reassess on a 29.50 break.