AVAX coiled beneath 31.3: ascending triangle primed for a 24h push toward 32

Comprehensive multi-timeframe, multi-indicator review for AVAX (spot)

Context and recent path

• Trend regime (daily): AVAX rallied hard into mid-late September (peak ~35.33 on Sep 18–19), then corrected to 28.66 on Sep 25, and has been basing and climbing back toward the low-30s. Current price 30.921 with today’s range 29.664–31.330 and strong late-session bid.
• Microstructure (hourly, today): Early strength to ~31.33, liquidation sweep down to ~29.77 around 14:00 UTC, then persistent buy-the-dip behavior back above 30.90 into the close. This forms a higher-low against Oct 1 low (~29.65) and respects the 29.7–30.0 demand shelf.

Market structure and key levels

• Support: 29.65–29.80 (higher low cluster: Oct 1 low 29.65, Oct 2 low 29.77), 30.00–30.20 (round-number and prior acceptance), 30.25–30.30 (intraday balance), 29.05–29.10 (S2 zone from prior pivots), 28.66 (swing low, Sep 25).
• Resistance: 31.20–31.35 (38.2% retrace + R1 pivot cluster; today’s high 31.33), 31.90–32.05 (R2/50% Fib confluence), 32.75–32.85 (61.8% Fib), 33.65–33.90 (late-Sept supply), 35.2–35.7 (swing high supply).
• Pattern: Ascending triangle developing since Sep 27 with rising swing lows (28.79 → 29.65 → 29.77) capped by horizontal resistance ~31.3. This often resolves upward if the base holds and volume expands on the break.

Moving averages and trend filters

• 10-day SMA ≈ 30.75 (computed). Price 30.92 > 10D SMA: short-term trend supportive.
• 20-day SMA ≈ 31.14 (computed). Price just below: price is “pinched” between 10D and 20D, often a pre-move zone. A sustained reclaim of 31.14 would be a momentum confirmation.
• 50-day SMA (qualitative): likely below price given July–Aug trading in the low-to-mid 20s and the September surge; slope turning up. Constructive medium-term.
• 200-day SMA (qualitative): likely below current price given months of lower prices; longer-term structure supportive.
• Interpretation: Short-term > medium-term slope alignment is improving; price is coiling under the 20D which sits just overhead near first resistance.

Ichimoku (daily, qualitative approximations)

• Tenkan (9-period midpoint) ~32.3 from the recent high/low window; price 30.92 is below Tenkan → near-term momentum still recovering.
• Kijun (26-period midpoint) ~29.3; price above Kijun → intermediate trend remains bullish.
• Cloud: After September thrust, price likely above/near the cloud; Senkou A likely above B, indicating a supportive cloud beneath price. A Tenkan reclaim would strengthen the bullish case.

Momentum oscillators

• RSI (14D): Neutral-to-bullish bias, likely in the 50–55 zone after rebound; held the midline on the pullback and is curling up, consistent with continuation attempts.
• Stochastic (14,3,3): Recovering from mid-range; no overbought signal yet; supportive of another push into resistance.
• MACD (12,26,9): After the Sep 18 peak and late-Sep pullback, MACD likely approached/briefly dipped below the signal. Histogram is stabilizing/rising; a bullish cross is plausible if price sustains >30.8–31.0 in coming sessions.

Volatility and bands

• ATR (14D) estimate ~1.8–2.0. Today’s range 1.67 fits. Expect a ~1.7–2.0 range over the next 24h.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band ~20D SMA ≈ 31.14. Upper band in the mid-35s, lower band mid-26s (given September volatility). Price has reclaimed the mid-zone after tagging lower-mid band last week; mean reversion toward 31.1–31.3 is underway, and a decisive mid-band reclaim often precedes an upper-band test on continuation days.
• Keltner Channels: Price near middle line; slope turning up; a break above 31.3 should expand the channel.

Fibonacci mapping (swing Sep 18 high 35.33 → Sep 25 low 28.66)

• 38.2%: 31.21 (tested/rejected intraday today)
• 50%: 31.99
• 61.8%: 32.79
• Read: The 31.2–31.3 zone is a precise Fib confluence and behaved as resistance today. Clearing it opens a cleaner path into 32.0 and then 32.8.

Pivot framework

• Using Oct 1 H/L/C (31.08/29.65/30.70): P=30.48, R1=31.31, S1=29.88, R2=31.91, S2=29.05. Today’s low slightly undercut S1 then price rallied to R1 and closed between P and R1 → classic bullish response to S1 test.
• Estimated pivots for next session (based on today’s provisional H/L/C 31.33/29.66/30.92):
  • Pivot P ≈ 30.64
  • R1 ≈ 31.61, S1 ≈ 29.95
  • R2 ≈ 32.30, S2 ≈ 28.97
• Trade logic: Buying near P (30.6–30.7) with targets into R1/R2 aligns with the ascending triangle thesis and offers favorable R:R.

Volume, OBV, and profile

• Volume: Late-day recovery printed healthy volume; today’s aggregate high relative to prior 3–4 days, supportive of the rebound. The 14:00 flush likely cleared weak longs below 30 before buyers stepped in.
• OBV (qualitative): Rising off Sep 27–30 base; today’s positive close should add to OBV, signaling accumulation.
• Volume profile/acceptance: Heavy acceptance around 30.0–30.4 from late September; this is now acting as a value area and springboard for tests of 31.2–31.3.

Pattern diagnostics and candles

• Ascending triangle: Higher lows into a flat(ish) 31.3 lid; an upside break typically carries to the measured move height (~31.3 − 29.8 ≈ 1.5), projecting ~32.8 on breakout alignment with 61.8% Fib.
• Candlestick (daily): Today’s close near highs with a long lower shadow resembles a bullish hammer/hammer-like recovery from support; it often leads to continuation if the next candle opens firm and holds above 30.5–30.6.
• Hourly: The 13:00–14:00 capitulation to ~29.77 and quick reclaim of 30+ is a classic liquidity sweep; subsequent higher lows through 20:00 confirm demand.

Regression and channels

• Linear regression (Sep 25 → today): Up-sloping channel; current price sits near the mid/upper half after the late-session rally, leaving room to tag the upper boundary near 31.6–32.0 within 24h if momentum persists.

Elliott wave framing (tactical)

• From 28.66 (Sep 25), a 1–2–3–4 structure appears with Wave-3 into Oct 1 highs (~31.08) and Wave-4 intraday low today (~29.77). A final Wave-5 push commonly retests/overcomes the 31.3 cap, targeting ~31.9–32.1 before a small ABC.

ADX and trend strength

• ADX (14D) likely in the mid-20s after the large September impulse and consolidation; not exhausted. Rising DI+ on today’s recovery suggests buyers regaining control.

VWAP (intraday, qualitative)

• Today’s price closed above an estimated session VWAP (~30.6). Holding above tomorrow’s VWAP early in the session would favor continuation and breakout attempts of 31.2–31.3.

Risk factors and invalidation

• Invalidation for the bullish path occurs on an hourly close back below 29.9–30.0 (loss of pivot and value area), opening room to 29.4–29.1 (S1/S2 cluster) and potentially re-testing 28.66.
• Macro crosswinds: If BTC/majors weaken overnight, AVAX’s triangle may delay breakout; however, the well-bid 29.7–30.0 shelf and rising short-term MAs offer cushion.

24-hour outlook and path probabilities

• Base case (≈60%): Early dip finds support near tomorrow’s pivot 30.6–30.7, then rotation up to 31.2–31.3. A breakout and hold above 31.35 targets 31.6 (R1) and 31.9–32.0 (R2/50% Fib) before consolidating.
• Alternative (≈30%): Another probe of 30.2–30.4; holds above 29.95; range-bound 30.2–31.2 if momentum stalls.
• Bear case (≈10%): Failure at 31.2 followed by loss of 30.0 leads to 29.4–29.0 sweep; would postpone the triangle resolution.

Synthesis and trade plan

• Confluences favoring upside continuation: ascending triangle setup, higher lows, bullish S1→R1 reaction today, price >10D SMA and above Kijun, OBV improving, reclaimed session VWAP, and a strong close. The primary cap is the 31.2–31.35 resistance. Given ATR and pivot math, an optimal entry is on a controlled pullback into 30.6–30.7 (tomorrow’s pivot zone) with targets into 31.9–32.0 within 24 hours.

Decision: Buy (Long) on dip toward 30.6–30.7; alternate trigger buy on breakout >31.35 if no dip. Target 31.9–32.0 within the next 24 hours. Invalidation (for planning): a decisive break <29.9 suggests stepping aside.