AVAX Coils Above the 38.2% Fib: Primed for a 24h Push Toward $32.6

AVAX multi-timeframe technical read and 24h trading plan

1. Market structure and context

• Daily trend: From early July (~$18) AVAX built a persistent uptrend into mid-September, peaking on 2025-09-18 at $35.23. A corrective leg followed into 2025-09-25 at $28.66, then a basing phase and a renewed grind higher. Recent closes: 9/30 $30.00, 10/1 $30.70, 10/2 $31.02, current $31.20 — a 3-day sequence of higher highs and higher lows suggests momentum rebuild.
• 24h intraday (hourly): Today printed a push to $31.52 (16:00 UTC), then a controlled pullback to the low $31.1–31.2 area. The last several hours show tight consolidation between ~$31.17 and ~$31.28 with shallow dips bought — a constructive bull-flag/ascending consolidation just below minor resistance.
• Key swing points: High $35.23 (9/18), reaction low $28.66 (9/25), secondary swing low $27.96 (9/28), subsequent higher lows: 9/30 $28.85, 10/1 $29.65, 10/2 $29.62, 10/3 intraday ~$30.05 — a rising trough sequence for the last four sessions.

2. Support/resistance mapping

• Immediate resistance: $31.36–$31.52 (today’s intraday supply), then $31.93–$32.00 (round-number and 50% Fib retrace of the 35.23→28.66 drop), then $32.65–$32.80 (61.8% Fib + upper daily band area), larger resistance $33.18–$33.77 (late-Sep caps), and $35.2 (cycle high).
• Key supports: $31.00–$31.05 (intraday pivot, 10/2 close area), $30.70 (10/1 close and prior pivot), $30.00 (psychological, 9/30 close), $29.40–$29.60 (9/10 breakout print and two-day lows on 10/1–10/2), $28.66 (9/25 capitulation low).

3. Fibonacci framework (swing high 35.23 to swing low 28.66)

• 38.2%: 31.17 — price is perched exactly here, making it a decision zone; acceptance above typically opens a glide-path to 50%.
• 50%: 31.95 — aligns with prior local highs; expect supply on first touch.
• 61.8%: 32.68 — confluence with projected upper band/extension. A logical 24–48h upside objective if momentum confirms.

4. Moving averages and trend filters

• 8–10 day EMA (approx): ~$30.6–$30.8. Price above: short-term bullish.
• 20 day SMA (approx): ~$31.0. Price marginally above and riding the mid-band — suggests positive but not overextended posture.
• 50 day SMA (approx): mid-to-high $26s given July–Aug prints; price well above — medium-term uptrend intact.
• MA posture: Short MAs > medium MAs, slope turning up after the late-Sept pullback. Bullish alignment favors dips being bought.

5. Momentum suite

• Daily RSI (est.): mid-50s to high-50s. Post-correction reset from likely >70 at the 9/18 high, now rebuilding. Room to run before overbought.
• Hourly RSI: mid-50s, consistent with consolidation; mild positive divergence vs early-session lows.
• MACD (daily): Histogram contraction bottomed post-9/25; signal is curling up with a likely or imminent bullish cross since 10/1–10/2 — supportive of continuation.
• Stochastics: Daily rising from neutral; Hourly oscillating in mid-zone with room for a thrust on a breakout above $31.5.

6. Volatility and bands

• ATR (daily, est.): ~$1.7–$2.0 recently. From $31.2, a 24h typical range projects $29.4–$33.0, bracketing our targets.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Midline near ~$31.0; upper band estimated ~$33.4–$33.8; lower band ~$28.3–$28.6. Price hovering slightly above the midline suggests upside room toward the upper band if momentum persists.
• Keltner Channels: Price near/just above the midline; an expansion toward the upper KC aligns with a push into low-$32s.

7. Volume/flow analytics

• Volume surged on the rally days (9/10, 9/18–9/23) and on 10/2’s advance (~1.56B vs ~1.01B on 10/1), indicating renewed participation on up-moves. Today’s intraday pop to $31.52 occurred on elevated hour volume, and pullback volumes faded — classic bullish behavior.
• OBV (qualitative): Recovering post-9/25, consistent with accumulation on dips.
• MFI (qualitative): Mid-zone bias up; no overbought stress near current level.

8. Pattern read

• Daily: A textbook corrective A→B→C off the $35.23 high appears to have completed into the $28.66–$27.96 zone. The ensuing higher-low staircase is characteristic of a fresh impulse or at least a B-to-C retrace phase higher. A break and hold above $31.5–$31.9 pivots the structure to a more decisive bullish stance.
• Hourly: Bull flag/ascending triangle under $31.5, with higher lows squeezing against static resistance; measured move would target roughly the flagpole length (~$0.90–$1.00) added to the breakout, implying ~$32.3–$32.5 potential within 24 hours.

9. Ichimoku (directional read, approximate)

• Price is above Tenkan and likely near/above Kijun on the daily after reclaiming $31 — constructive.
• Cloud: After the late-September drawdown, the cloud ahead likely flattened; with price reclaiming above baselines, the bias tilts bullish as long as $30.7–$31 holds.

10. DMI/ADX (directional strength)

• Daily ADX likely rebuilding from sub-20 into the low 20s with +DI crossing over −DI post 10/1. This supports a budding trend, though not yet in a strongly trending regime — ideal for a breakout from consolidation.

11. Pivot levels (classic, qualitative)

• R1 cluster aligns near ~$31.5, R2 around ~$31.9–$32.0; S1 ~$30.7, S2 ~$30.0. Current price sits between PP and R1 with upward tilt.

12. Risk matrix and confluence

• Bullish confluences: reclaim of 20D mid-band, 38.2% Fib reclaimed (~$31.17), rising short MAs, positive MACD turn, higher lows on both daily and hourly, volume supports up-moves, intraday bull flag under resistance.
• Bearish/risks: Immediate overhead supply $31.5 and especially $31.9–$32.0 (50% Fib) may cause stalls; a loss of $31.0 would invite tests of $30.7 then $30.0. Failure back below $30.7 would postpone the move and risk range reversion.

13. 24-hour outlook (base case and alternates)

• Base case (60%): Break/hold above $31.5 triggers a run toward $31.9–$32.2, with extension to $32.5–$32.7 if momentum and volumes expand. Close in the upper third of the day’s range likely.
• Pullback-first (30%): Wick down to $31.05–$31.10 (or a quick liquidity probe to ~$30.95) then buyers step in, driving a later-session breakout toward $32.0–$32.4.
• Bearish fade (10%): Failure at $31.5 and a decisive loss of $31.0 turns the day into a range fade back to $30.7–$30.0; odds currently lower given improving momentum and higher-low structure.

14. Trade plan logic and pricing

• Strategy: Buy the dip into local support to optimize R:R, targeting the next Fibonacci/structural confluence below major resistance.
• Entry (limit): $31.05 — sits just under intraday pivot and 38.2% retrace reclaimed level ($31.17), increasing probability of fill while keeping structure intact.
• Take profit (24h objective): $32.60 — just shy of the 61.8% retracement ($32.68) and within the hourly flag measured move range; also below a known supply band (32.65–32.80) to improve the chance of execution.
• Invalidation concept (not placed here but for context): A clean break and 1–2 hourly closes below $30.70 would weaken the setup and suggest standing aside.

Bottom line: Momentum is rebuilding above key retracement and mid-band levels, hourly structure is constructive, and volume behavior supports continuation. The path of least resistance for the next 24 hours is a grind higher with a breakout attempt toward the low-to-mid $32s. Prefer buying minor dips vs. chasing into the $31.5 break.