AVAX: Sell the Bounce Into Broken $20 Support as Bear Trend Resumes

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Bearish continuation with weak bounces. Base case expects a relief pop toward broken support, then a fresh leg lower into the high-18s, with risk of an overshoot toward 17.8–18.0 if momentum accelerates.
• Trade plan: Sell a retracement into the 19.9–20.4 supply zone. Optimal entry chosen: 20.15 (sell limit). Primary take-profit: 18.25. Invalidation for the idea sits above 21.05–21.20 (hourly swing and fib confluence).

1. Price action and market structure

• Regime shift: On 2025-10-10 AVAX printed an extreme wide-range down day (low ~10.64, close ~20.73) on very high volume, breaking the entire late-Sep/early-Oct uptrend. Since then, the market staged a three-day reaction bounce (to ~23.84 on 10-13) and has carved a sequence of lower highs/lows into today.
• Post-bounce distribution: Daily closes have stepped down from 23.84 (10-13) → 22.77 (10-14) → 21.92 (10-15) → 20.96 (10-16) → 19.50 (current 10-17 intraday). Price is now pressing new post-bounce lows and has lost the psychologically important 20.00 handle.
• Intraday (hourly) structure 10-16 to 10-17: A clear stair-step of lower highs: 22.34 → 21.97 → 21.37 → 21.19 → 21.01 → 20.98 → 20.75 → 20.66 → 19.95 → 19.50; and lower lows. Break-and-hold below 20.70, then below 20.00, confirms active supply. Momentum selling accelerated into 06:00–07:00 UTC today.
• Pattern: Classic crash → bear-flag bounce → continuation. The bounce from 10-11 to 10-13 resembles a flag against the prior impulse. The breakdown since 10-15 validates the continuation leg.

2. Support/resistance mapping

• Immediate resistance (supply): • 19.90–20.10: Broken round-number shelf; first retest likely to attract sellers. • 20.50–20.75: 23.6% retrace of the 23.84 → 19.49 leg (≈20.51) + intraday pivot cluster (20.74–20.76 highs). Stronger sell zone if tagged. • 21.10–21.25: 38.2% retrace from 19.49 (≈21.16) + recent hourly swing failure (21.19–21.20). Invalidation area for short-term shorts.
• Nearby support (demand): • 18.80–19.00: Psychological shelf and initial measured move objective. • 18.20–18.40: Measured move and extension confluence (see below). Primary TP zone. • 17.80–18.00: Round number and possible momentum overshoot/capitulation zone if selling accelerates. • 16.4–16.6: 23.6% retrace of the Sept high → Oct crash low range (longer-horizon level; secondary if cascade extends).

3. Volatility and ranges

• True range has expanded materially post-crash. Recent daily intraday spans have been 1.7–2.5+; today already printed ~1.7 before 08:00 UTC. A 24h swing of ~2.0–3.0 is plausible, easily covering a 20.15 → 18.25 move.
• Bands behavior (conceptual): 20D Bollinger center line likely in the mid/high-20s after the Sep rally; lower band projected near high-teen/low-20 zone. Price is hugging/submerging the lower band—typical in trend phases; “oversold” can persist while drifting down the band.

4. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20D SMA/EMA (approx): Mid/high-20s given a heavy concentration of 29–31 handles pre-crash; decisively above price → bearish.
• 50D: High-20s to ~30; firmly above price and sloping down → bearish trend confirmation.
• 100–200D: Likely in mid/high-20s. Price well below all major MAs; any rallies into declining MAs should be faded.
• Alignment: Bearish stack (price < 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA) by inference → pro-trend short setups favored.

5. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI (inferred): Crashed below 30 on 10-10, rebounded into mid-30s on the bounce, and is rolling back toward/below 30 as closes step lower. In a downtrend, sub-40 RSI regime suggests rallies fail.
• Hourly RSI (inferred): Regime ~20–35 across the last 24h with repeated inability to sustain above 40–45 on bounces—consistent with intraday trend continuation.
• MACD (daily, inferred): Negative and widening histogram post 10-15; signal line turned down—bearish momentum building again. Hourly MACD also below zero with shallow/failed crosses.

6. Fibonacci confluences

• Cycle swing (Sept 18 high 35.33 → Oct 10 crash low 10.64): • 38.2% from low ≈ 20.07; AVAX lost and is now sustaining below it → bearish continuation signal. • 50% ≈ 23.00; the bounce high 23.84 (10-13) failed below 61.8% ≈ 25.85; classic lower-high below the golden pocket.
• Post-bounce downswing (10-13 high 23.84 → today’s low 19.49): • 23.6% ≈ 20.51; 38.2% ≈ 21.16; 50% ≈ 21.66. Expect sellers to defend 20.5–21.2 on any pop.
• Measured move: The 10-13 → 10-16 down leg was ~23.84 → 20.96 = ~2.88. Projecting a similar magnitude from the 10-16 breakdown pivot (~21.0) yields ~18.1–18.2 objective, aligning with the proposed TP.

7. Volume, participation, and OBV feel

• Oct 10–13 volume spike signaled a regime change. Subsequent days show elevated but decaying volume—typical for distribution. Today’s hourly tape shows selling spurts on breakdowns (notably 06:00–07:00 UTC), indicating aggressive supply at new lows.
• OBV (conceptual): Rolling lower since the bounce; no positive divergence versus price on the intraday frames → distribution not exhausted.

8. Ichimoku overview (conceptual)

• Price is far below the Cloud; Cloud is likely thick and descending given the violent pivot. Tenkan below Kijun with both pointing down; Chikou below price/Cloud. No Cloud support nearby. Any Tenkan/Kijun retests (~22±) would be sells under current regime.

9. Anchored VWAP and VWAP considerations

• Anchored VWAP from the 10-10 event (or from the 10-13 bounce) would likely sit well above spot (low-22s to mid-23s depending on anchor and weights), acting as dynamic overhead resistance. Intraday session VWAPs tend to cap bounces in persistent downtrends; selling strength into VWAP/prev-day VWAP retests is statistically favorable.

10. Pattern diagnostics and invalidation

• Bear flag: Flagpole (23.84 → 21.0) with flag (10-14 to 10-15) and breakdown (10-16) points to 18.1–18.4 measured move—convergent with fib and S/R.
• Invalidation: Reclaim and hold above 21.05–21.20 (hourly swing + 38.2% retrace) would signal short-term momentum failure and open a squeeze into 21.6–22.2. That is the risk line for shorts.

11. Scenario analysis for next 24 hours

• Bearish base case (≈60%): Early relief bounce stalls in 19.9–20.4; roll over to 19.0; extension probes 18.4–18.2; possible wick to 17.9–18.0 on stop runs before late-session mean reversion.
• Oversold squeeze (≈25%): Stronger bounce reaches 20.5–20.8 (23.6%/intraday pivots). Failure there likely; only above 21.2 do we consider squeeze risk toward 21.6.
• Range/chop (≈15%): Pin between 19.2 and 20.4 while volatility compresses ahead of a larger break. Even in chop, rallies are sold given overhead supply.

12. Risk management and execution

• Entry: Prefer patience for a bounce into supply. Optimal entry 20.15 (inside 19.9–20.4 zone) balances fill probability with improved RR vs shorting the lows.
• Stop (discretionary, not part of order output): 21.05 hard stop (above hourly LH cluster and fib confluence). Conservative traders can use 21.20.
• Take-profit: 18.25 primary. Consider partial at 18.90–19.00 to harvest into first demand and trail remainder toward 18.2.
• RR math: Entry 20.15, TP 18.25 = +1.90; stop 21.05 = -0.90; RR ≈ 2.1:1. With TP at 18.0, RR improves if momentum persists.

13. What would change my mind?

• Strong reclaim and 4h close back above 20.70 followed by absorption of 21.16 (38.2% retrace) on expanding volume would suggest the leg down is stalling and a larger mean-reversion toward 21.6–22.2 is underway. Until then, the path of least resistance remains down.

Conclusion

• Trend, momentum, failed fib holds, and structure favor selling strength. A tactical short on a bounce toward 20.15 targeting 18.25 aligns with multiple confluences and the current volatility profile. Manage risk above 21.05–21.20.

Note: This is a technical view based solely on the provided data; crypto is highly volatile. Use position sizing and hard stops.