AVAX at a Post-Capitulation Inflection: Bullish Range Break Setup Toward $9.62

AVAX (Avalanche) — 24h Technical Outlook (based on provided Daily + Hourly OHLCV)

Current price: $9.1487 (2026-02-20 22:00 UTC)

1) Multi-timeframe structure (trend, market phase)

Daily trend (primary)

• From 2026-01-13 close ~$14.74 to 2026-02-05 close ~$8.30: a sharp bear trend impulse (~-44%) with heavy volume (notably 1/31 and 2/05), typical of capitulation.
• From 2026-02-06 close ~$9.27 onward: price shifted into a base / range roughly $8.63–$9.70 (seen 2/11–2/20) with lower volatility than the sell-off phase.
• Latest daily candle (2/20): 8.896 → 9.149 close, high 9.340. This is a bullish recovery day following multiple small-bodied indecisive days, suggesting short-term demand re-entering.

Conclusion (daily): primary trend is still down (lower highs from the $14–15 area), but the market is in a post-capitulation basing zone and trying to form a short-term reversal.

Hourly trend (tactical)

• Intraday sequence shows a grind up from ~8.90 to ~9.23 in the early hours, then a pullback to ~8.99, then a second push back toward ~9.15.
• The day’s hourly highs clustered around 9.31–9.34 (09:00–10:00 UTC area) and price failed to hold above that.

Conclusion (hourly): short-term uptrend attempt, but currently below a clear intraday resistance band.

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2) Support/Resistance mapping (price-action + volume memory)

Key supports

• $9.10–$9.12: repeated hourly pivots (11:00–12:00, 18:00–21:00); very near current price, important for immediate direction.
• $9.00: psychological + multiple hourly touches.
• $8.88–$8.90: today’s base area and prior day close region; also near the day’s open (8.896). If this breaks, momentum likely flips bearish for the next session.
• $8.63–$8.67: multi-day swing support (2/11–2/12 lows; 2/19 low 8.683). This is the “range floor”.

Key resistances

• $9.23–$9.25: prior hourly swing highs and stall zone.
• $9.34: today’s high (daily + hourly). Clear “line in the sand” for bulls.
• $9.59–$9.70: prior daily peak zone (2/14 high ~9.70). This is the next major upside objective if $9.34 breaks.

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3) Candlestick & pattern read

Daily pattern context

• The sell-off into 2/05 looks like capitulation (very large range + extreme volume).
• Since then: sideways-to-slightly-up consolidation, with 2/14 producing an impulsive rally day (to 9.59 close) but failing to continue.
• 2/20 prints a bullish day with a higher close vs prior close (8.896 → 9.149) and a meaningful intraday range. This often precedes range expansion attempts.

Hourly pattern

• A rising intraday channel / step pattern early, then mean reversion.
• No clear breakdown structure yet (no sequence of lower lows on the hour). This favors a buy-the-dip posture as long as $8.88–$9.00 holds.

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4) Momentum (RSI/MACD-style inference)

(Exact indicator values aren’t computed here, but we can infer from swings.)

• The move from ~8.63 (2/11–2/12 area) to ~9.59 (2/14) likely pushed short-term RSI into the upper-mid zone; subsequent pullback to ~8.85 reset momentum.
• Today’s recovery from ~8.89 to ~9.34 and close ~9.15 suggests momentum is improving again but not yet breaking the range ceiling.

Interpretation: momentum is turning up, but until a decisive break above $9.34, it’s still “range momentum,” not a confirmed trend reversal.

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5) Volatility & range metrics (practical ATR view)

• Daily ranges recently: roughly $0.25–$0.60 on calm days; larger on impulse days.
• Today’s daily range: 9.3395 - 8.8920 ≈ $0.4475.

Implication for next 24h: a reasonable expectation is a move of about $0.35–$0.55 within the established range unless a breakout triggers expansion.

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6) Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

Base case (most likely): range rotation with bullish bias

• Price holds above $9.00–$9.10, retests $9.23–$9.34.
• If rejected at $9.34 again, expect pullback to $9.05–$9.10.

Bull case: breakout continuation

• Hourly closes above $9.34 open the path toward $9.59–$9.70 (prior daily resistance).
• In this case, next 24h could print a higher high within the multi-day range.

Bear case: failed bounce / range floor test

• Loss of $8.88–$9.00 shifts control to sellers; likely test $8.63–$8.67.

Probability-weighting (qualitative):

• Base/bull continuation slightly favored because: (1) post-capitulation base, (2) today’s bullish daily close, (3) repeated defense of 8.85–8.90 region.

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Trade Plan (24h tactical)

Decision: Buy (Long position)

Rationale: favoring a continuation attempt within the established range, with tight invalidation below the near-term base.

Optimal Open Price (limit entry)

• Open (Buy) at: $9.06
  • This targets a pullback into the $9.05–$9.12 demand/pivot zone rather than buying at the current price directly under resistance.

Take Profit / Close Price

• Close (Take Profit) at: $9.62
  • This aligns with the upper resistance band $9.59–$9.70 from 2/14.

(Risk note for execution discipline: if price breaks and holds below ~$8.88 on the hour, the long thesis is weakened materially; consider a protective stop in that region in real trading.)

24h Price Movement Prediction

• Expected path: dip toward ~$9.05–$9.10 → attempt to retest ~$9.34 → potential extension to ~$9.55–$9.65 if breakout follows through.
• Expected 24h range: roughly $8.95 to $9.65, skewed slightly upward unless $8.88 fails.