Avalanche Price Analysis Powered by AI

AVAX at $9.19: Intraday Spike Rejected—Sell the Rally Into 9.33–9.42 Supply

1) Market structure & trend (multi-timeframe)

Daily trend (swing context)

Macro direction (Nov → Feb): clearly bearish. AVAX fell from the mid-15s (late Nov/early Jan highs ~14.7–15.2) into a capitulation leg that printed 8.27 (Feb 5 low).
Since that washout, price has been basing between ~8.63 and ~9.70, i.e., a range / weak recovery inside a larger downtrend.
Latest daily close (intraday proxy given current): ~9.19, still well below prior breakdown levels:
- Prior support/now resistance zones: 10.10–10.35, 11.00–11.50, 12.00+.

Short-term trend (last ~10 trading days)

From Feb 11 close 8.63 → Feb 14 close 9.59, there was a sharp bounce, but it failed to hold above ~9.50–9.70.
Subsequent candles show lower highs (9.59 → 9.28 → 9.26 → 9.14 → 8.85) followed by a modest rebound to 9.17–9.19.
This is characteristic of a bear-market consolidation: bounce → fade → attempt to rebase.

Intraday (hourly) structure (Feb 21)

Hourly shows a grind up into ~9.42 (14:00 high) followed by a persistent fade back toward ~9.19.
The move up did not transition into a higher-high/higher-low continuation; instead it looks like intraday distribution (push to 9.42 rejected).

Conclusion (structure): higher timeframe downtrend; near-term range with sellers defending the upper band (9.35–9.45 and especially 9.55–9.70).

2) Support/Resistance mapping (price-action, pivots, supply/demand)

Key supports

9.15–9.20: current micro support (multiple hourly opens/closes around here).
9.05–9.10: minor support from recent hourly basing.
8.88–8.95: demand area (recent daily closes around 8.89–8.90).
8.63–8.70: stronger base support (Feb 11–12 region).

Key resistances

9.33–9.42: intraday supply (today’s spike high ~9.42 and subsequent rejection).
9.55–9.70: range top / major near-term resistance (Feb 14 high/close region).
10.10–10.35: major breakdown/overhead supply (late Jan/early Feb).

Interpretation: reward-to-risk is better selling into resistance than buying into it, unless price breaks and holds above 9.42/9.70.

3) Momentum & mean reversion (RSI/MACD-style inference from swings)

(Exact indicator values aren’t computed here, but the swing behavior strongly implies the following momentum state.)

The Feb 5 crash to 8.27 followed by a fast rebound to 9.27 suggests oversold → relief rally.
The failure to sustain above 9.50–9.70 and the subsequent drift back to 8.85 suggests momentum exhausted and reverted to range.
Hourly sequence today: push to 9.42 then fade to 9.19 indicates intraday momentum divergence (buying pressure couldn’t sustain new highs).

Momentum bias next 24h: mildly bearish/neutral; expectation of range rotation rather than clean breakout.

4) Volatility & range expectations (ATR-style, candle ranges)

Recent daily ranges (high-low) have often been ~0.25–0.60 in price terms (~3%–7%).
Today’s hourly high-low span (~9.42 to ~9.12) is ~0.30 (~3.3%).

24h expected move (practical trading band): roughly ±2.5% to ±5% from 9.19 → approx 8.95 to 9.65 as a reasonable envelope, with tails possible toward 8.85 or 9.70.

5) Volume / participation read

Daily volume spiked heavily on the selloff (late Jan–Feb 6), consistent with capitulation.
The rebound days had solid volume, but the market has not reclaimed major overhead levels; that often implies distribution into supply.
On the hourly today, there is a very large volume burst at 14:00 while price set the day’s high near 9.42, then price weakened afterward—often a local blow-off / supply absorption signature.

Volume bias: favors sellers near 9.35–9.45.

6) Pattern read (classical technical analysis)

Range (rectangle) base: ~8.85–9.70 with midline ~9.25–9.30.
Today’s action resembles a failed breakout attempt above the midline into supply (9.33–9.42) followed by rejection.
Overall downtrend + range = commonly a bear flag / bearish continuation unless price breaks and holds above 9.70.

7) Scenario forecast (next 24 hours)

Base case (higher probability): Range rotation lower then stabilize

Price likely to retest 9.05–9.10, possibly sweep 8.95–9.00, then attempt to bounce back toward 9.25–9.33.
This fits: downtrend context + rejection at 9.42 + mean reversion.

Bullish alternative (lower probability): Break above intraday supply

Requires acceptance above 9.42, then follow-through to 9.55–9.70.
Given today’s rejection and broader downtrend, this is less likely in the next 24h.

Bearish continuation (tail risk): Break of 8.85

If 8.85 fails, next magnet is 8.63–8.70, and below that the panic low zone.

Directional call (24h): slight bearish bias; favor selling rallies into resistance.

8) Trade plan (decision, entry, target)

Decision: Sell (Short Position)

Rationale: broader downtrend + intraday rejection at 9.42 + overhead supply at 9.33–9.45 and 9.55–9.70.

Optimal open price (limit sell)

Best risk/reward is to sell into resistance, not at the current mid-range price.
Open (Sell) Price: 9.36
- This sits inside the nearest supply band and below 9.42 (improves fill probability while still selling strength).

Close (take profit)

First meaningful demand/rotation target: 9.05–9.10, deeper support at 8.95.
Close Price (TP): 9.06
- Captures the likely range rotation without needing a full breakdown.

(Risk note: a sensible invalidation is a sustained push/acceptance above ~9.45–9.55, and especially above 9.70, but you only asked for open/close.)