BCH: Bearish Drift Toward 514 — Short the Bounce, Not the Knife

Snapshot and context

• Asset: Bitcoin Cash (BCH)
• Current price (last print): 522.02
• Timeframe coverage: Daily candles (Aug 6 to Nov 3), Hourly candles (Nov 2–Nov 3)
• 24h objective: Identify directional bias, key levels, and a precise entry/exit for a tactical trade.

1. Market structure and trend Daily structure

• From the Oct 17 swing low (469.95) BCH rallied to Oct 26 swing high (558.70), then carved a multi-session distribution between ~536–570 and rolled over late October/early November.
• The 536–541 zone acted as a busy acceptance area through Oct 29–Nov 1; yesterday’s close at 537.28 and today’s drive to 522 represent a decisive break below that shelf — a change of character toward bearish.
• Post-breakdown path of least resistance is lower, toward the mid-retracement cluster around 514–515 and, if momentum persists, the 503–510 band.

Hourly structure

• Clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows from 23:00 Nov 2 (537.32) through 14:00 Nov 3 (~521.78). Price hugged a descending channel with weak bounces at 529–533 and 526–527 failing each time.
• Notable intraday supply: spikes in activity at 23:00 and 03:00 on down moves; subsequent rallies have been shallow and sold.
• Price currently trades below session VWAP (approx mid-high 520s), reinforcing short-term bearish intraday bias.

2. Key levels and confluences High-timeframe (daily) levels

• Resistance/supply: 536–541 (broken support/now resistance), then 555–558 (supply from Oct 26–29), 570–575 (late Sept/early Oct topside).
• Support/demand: 524.76 (38.2% retrace of 469.95→558.70), 514.33 (50% retrace), 503.89 (61.8%), 500.00 psychological, 493–489 (78.6% ret), 485 and 470 (prior swing extremes).

Classical pivot points (from Nov 2 H=555.11, L=525.34, C=537.28)

• Pivot P = 539.24
• R1 = 553.14, R2 = 569.01
• S1 = 523.38 (now lost intra-day), S2 = 509.47 (next pivot target) Confluence: Price is below S1 and moving toward S2. The 50% fib (514.33) sits just above S2 (509.47), creating a 509–515 demand cluster.

Intraday (hourly) levels

• Immediate resistance: 525.5–527.0 (local LH supply), then 531–534 (hourly cluster and prior bounce highs), then 536–541 (daily broken shelf).
• Immediate support: 520–521 (minor), 515 (major fib/cluster), 510 (pivot S2), 504–505 (61.8% fib neighborhood), 500 (psychological).

3. Moving averages and trend filters Daily

• SMA10 ≈ 541 (recent rally pulled it up). Price at 522 is below SMA10 → short-term trend down.
• SMA20 ≈ 515 (influenced by mid-Oct lows). Price is slightly above this, suggesting we’re in the vicinity of the 20-day mean; however, slope alignment still favors caution given recent breakdown beneath the 536–541 structure.
• SMA50 likely well above current price (mid/high 500s) given September levels → intermediate trend still down/neutral-to-bearish. Interpretation: Price is below the fast MA (10D) and near the 20D mean, with the 50D overhead — a corrective downswing inside a broader, still-heavy regime.

Hourly

• EMAs (8/21/55) are aligned bearishly (price under all, slopes down). Each bounce has stalled beneath the 21/55 EMA cluster, consistent with trend continuation.

4. Momentum and oscillators RSI

• Daily RSI: likely mid-to-high 40s slipping toward low 40s (consistent with a pullback off late-Oct highs). Not yet deeply oversold on daily, leaving room lower toward 40/35 before strong mean-reversion pressure.
• Hourly RSI: repeatedly pressed into low/mid 30s during the slide, producing minor bounces that failed — classic bear trend behavior. MACD
• Daily MACD has rolled over from the late-Oct upmove; the histogram is likely negative/softening and the signal cross is bearish or near-bearish → downside momentum bias.
• Hourly MACD remains sub-zero with shallow bull attempts quickly reverting.

5. Volatility and ranges ATR (14D) rough context: 25–30 is common recently (e.g., multiple 25–45 range days late Oct). Expect ±20–30 of realized 24h move. Bollinger Bands

• Daily: Price is near the 20D mean; bands are moderately wide after October’s shock, allowing room for a 509–515 test without breaching extreme conditions.
• Hourly: Price rides lower band in a trend regime — tendency is to walk the band, oscillate to mid-band (~VWAP/EMAs), then continue down.

6. Volume, VWAP, and flow

• Post Oct 26 pop to 558+, net flow has shown distribution: heavy prints into strength followed by heavier sell days (Oct 30–Nov 2).
• Today’s intraday price < session VWAP implies sellers control; typical pattern is to fade rallies to VWAP/EMA clusters.
• OBV/accumulation-distribution by eye suggests supply on upticks and larger prints on down candles → distribution rather than absorption.

7. Ichimoku perspective (directional filter)

• Daily price is likely beneath the cloud; Tenkan and Kijun above spot with bearish stack. Chikou lagging under price/cloud → net bearish filter. Any bounce toward Kijun/Tenkan (~535–550 region) remains sellable until a decisive reclaim.

8. Fibonacci mapping (Oct 17 low → Oct 26 high)

• 23.6%: 537.74 (was broken)
• 38.2%: 524.76 (now violated intraday)
• 50.0%: 514.33 (primary magnet)
• 61.8%: 503.89 (secondary)
• 78.6%: 488.99 (stretch) Interpretation: Once the 38.2% gives way, the 50% often attracts. The 50% (514.33) aligns with prior daily pivots and sits just above S2 (509.47) — a strong first target zone for shorts.

9. Pattern diagnostics

• Descending channel/flag on the hourly following the late-Oct drop: repeated failures at lower highs (533–534, 529–530, 526–527) indicate persistent supply.
• Break of the 536–541 shelf shifted the regime from range to trend-down. Expect “sell the rallies” to outperform “buy the dips” until the shelf is reclaimed.

10. Probability-weighted next-24h scenarios

• Base case (≈60%): Bounce toward 526–528 stalls; price trends to 514–515 (50% fib), with risk of extension to 510–509 (pivot S2). Close near 512–516.
• Bear extension (≈25%): Only minor bounce; decisive sweep of 514 leads to 504–505 (61.8%) or even a psychological 500 test on elevated volatility.
• Bull recovery (≈15%): A stronger squeeze reclaims 531–534, then probes 536–541. Only a firm daily close back above ~541 would neutralize the immediate downside and shift to range-rebuild.

11. Trade plan (tactical, 24h) Bias: Sell the bounce in a downtrending intraday regime with daily structure broken beneath 536–541.

• Entry: Prefer a patience entry on a retrace into 526–528 (overhead hourly supply/VWAP/EMA confluence). This optimizes risk-reward vs. shorting the absolute low.
• Target: First target at 514.0 (just above the 50% fib at 514.33 to front-run bids); if momentum is strong, consider scaling remainder into 510.0 (pivot S2) — but the core 24h take-profit is 514.
• Invalidation/stop (for risk framing): A protective stop above 534.6 (above the recent intraday LH/EMA cluster). A more conservative stop is above 541 (broken daily shelf), but that broadens risk.
• Alternative trigger if no bounce: A sell-stop continuation entry below 519.8 toward 514, though this reduces R:R; the preferred plan remains “sell the rally.”

12. Why short, not long

• Momentum: Intraday trend down beneath VWAP/EMAs; daily momentum rolling over.
• Structure: Breakdown below a heavy 536–541 shelf; S1 (523.38) lost, opening a path to 514–510.
• Confluence: Fibonacci 50% (514.33) + Pivot S2 (509.47) create a natural magnet/support test area in the next 24h.
• Risk/reward: Shorting 526–528 toward 514 provides a clear, nearby invalidation and multi-confluence target.

24-hour price outlook

• Expect BCH to probe the 514–515 area within 24h, with risks skewed to a 510 test if sellers remain dominant. Any pop into 526–528 is likely to encounter supply.