Fade the Rip: Shorting BCH Into 495–498 With Eyes on 476

Summary view

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bearish-to-sideways. Expect a 24h range roughly 476 – 498 with a base case drift back toward 480–482 before stabilizing.
• Trade plan: Sell a pop into the 495–498 supply band; take profit into 475–478 demand.

Step-by-step multi-method analysis

1. Price action and market structure (Daily and 1H)

• Daily trend: Since mid-September’s 650 high, BCH has traced a series of lower highs and lower lows. A sharp selloff on Oct 10 pushed price to ~485 intraday, then a reflex rally peaked around 558–566 on Oct 26–29, followed by renewed weakness to 505 (Nov 3). Current 489 is below the late-Oct support band (500–505), implying supply overhead.
• Recent regime: Volatile downtrend with intermittent squeezes that fade under resistance zones. The late-October squeeze into mid-550s was rejected aggressively; the bounce failed to clear the prior lower high, keeping the broader downtrend intact.
• 1H structure (Nov 5): • Impulse up 462.6 → 493.8 from 01:00 to 17:00, then a stalled advance with a clear double-top around 493.8 and mild lower highs into the US afternoon. • Pullback found support near the 38.2–50% retrace of the 462.6–493.8 leg (481.9–478.2). Rebounds have been labored and sold near 492–494, confirming supply density just below 495–498. • A rising intraday trendline off the 01:00 low now comes in around 484–485; a decisive break below that opens 480–482 quickly.
• Key horizontal levels from the tape: • Resistance/supply: 492–494 (intraday sellers), 495–498 (round-number, recent offer stack), 500–505 (broken support now resistance), 527–535 (daily R1/50% of prior swing; less relevant for 24h). • Support/demand: 485 trendline, 482–480 (intraday demand shelf), 474–475 (earlier session pivot/low cluster), 462–465 (session extreme; unlikely in base case without a shock).

2. Classical pivots (derived from Nov 3 OHLC: H 537.26, L 502.53, C 505.53)

• Pivot P ≈ 515.1; R1 ≈ 527.7; S1 ≈ 493.0; S2 ≈ 480.4; S3 ≈ 458.2.
• Price is oscillating below S1 (~493) and close to S2 (~480.4). Trading below S1 and failing to reclaim it is typically bearish-to-neutral with magnetism toward S2. This aligns with the idea of fading rallies under ~493–498 and covering near ~480.

3. Moving averages (Daily)

• 20D SMA/EMA: Roughly in the 525–540 zone given the late-Oct spike and early-Nov slide. Price at 489 sits well below the 20D, indicating persistent short-term bearish momentum.
• 50D SMA: Likely in the high 540s to low 560s, also well above price; 200D SMA even higher. The stack (price < 20D < 50D < 200D) is classic bearish alignment.
• 1H EMAs (intraday): Price has been oscillating around short EMAs through the US afternoon, losing follow-through on pushes >492. That non-trending microstate inside a macro downtrend favors shorting into nearby resistance, not chasing longs.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): Estimated in the upper 30s to low 40s after a sequence of lower closes from Oct 31 to Nov 3 and today’s sub-500 trade. That’s weak, but not deeply oversold—there’s room to slip toward 480 without an immediate mean-reversion mandate.
• 1H RSI: Showed improvement on the 462 → 494 impulse but registered a bearish divergence into the double-top near 493.8 (weaker RSI on the second top), foreshadowing the afternoon fade. That supports sell-the-rip rather than buy-the-dip within the next day.
• Stochastic (Daily): Likely hovering near 20–30, i.e., early oversold region, but without a trigger cross back up yet—consistent with drift/bleed risk.

5. MACD (Daily and 1H)

• Daily MACD: Below zero with a negative histogram since the post-October bounce peaked. While the histogram compression signaled slowing downside in late Oct, the renewed roll-over into early Nov keeps the MACD sell mode intact.
• 1H MACD: Crossed up during the early session push, then flattened/rolled near zero into the US afternoon as price failed to expand above ~494. That loss of momentum at resistance favors a fade.

6. Bollinger Bands

• Daily BB (20,2): Mid-band near the 20D SMA (low 530s). Lower band likely in mid-to-high 470s. Price is between lower band and mid-band, hugging the lower half—typical of a controlled downtrend. Room remains to test 476–480 without band breach.
• 1H BB: Bands narrowed into the afternoon; price is oscillating around the mid-band with upper band capping near 493–495. A volatility expansion from compression near 489 more often resolves in the direction of the higher-timeframe trend (down) unless 495–498 is reclaimed swiftly.

7. Fibonacci mapping

• Intraday upswing (462.6 → 493.8): 38.2% at ~481.9 and 50% at ~478.2. Dips toward 480 this afternoon respected these levels, which now form tactical demand. A break of 481–482 would likely slide to 478–476 next.
• Last dominant daily swing (Oct 26 high 563.8 → Nov 3 low 505.5): Retracement resistance sits at 38.2% ≈ 527.8, 50% ≈ 534.7, 61.8% ≈ 541.6. The late Oct/early Nov rebound stalled below these, confirming overhead supply and the path of least resistance down in the short term.

8. Ichimoku (Daily and 1H, qualitative)

• Daily: Price below cloud; Kijun/Tenkan likely above price with a bearish span. Chikou lagging beneath past price. Net bearish state with cloud resistance heavy above 520–540.
• 1H: Price is near or inside a thin cloud; flat Kijun around 488–490 acts as a magnet. Unless price clears the top of the cloud near 495–498 and holds, the cloud acts as resistance and suggests fading into that zone.

9. Average True Range and expected range

• Daily ATR(14): Approx 28–35 after recent spikes. From 489, a 1x ATR move implies 24h spans to roughly 459–519; a 0.6–0.8x ATR, more typical without a fresh catalyst, suggests 475–505. Given overhead supply density under 505, skew is to the downside within that band.

10. Volume and participation

• October 10 and Oct 26–29 featured large volume spikes on both selloffs and squeezes. Subsequent sessions show lighter—but persistent—distribution on down days. The recent failure to hold 500–505 came amid decent volume, turning that band into near-term supply. Intraday on Nov 5, volumes tapered into the US afternoon, and pushes above 492 weren’t sustained—more indicative of seller presence.

11. VWAPs and anchoring

• While an exact session VWAP is noisy (missing complete intraday volumes), approximate location near 488–489 aligns with the current price. Trading slightly below VWAP after failing at resistance typically favors fades back toward the session demand shelf (482–480) if the VWAP cannot be reclaimed with momentum.
• Anchored VWAP from the Oct 26 pump would sit materially above current price (in the 540s+), underscoring macro overhead pressure.

12. Pattern diagnostics

• 1H double-top at ~493.8 with seller reaction on both attempts, followed by lower highs—textbook micro bearish continuation setup toward 485/482.
• Daily structure is a descending channel since mid-September. Price is in the lower half of that channel; bounces tend to be shallow and sold.

13. Elliott Wave (light touch)

• The 1H sequence since 01:00 looks like: Wave 1 up (462→488), Wave 2 shallow pullback (to ~482), Wave 3 extension to 493, Wave 4 sideways chop, and potential Wave 5 failure/double-top—often followed by an ABC down toward 481–476. That supports a short into resistance.

14. Confluence checklist (most weight to multi-timeframe alignment)

• Bearish: Daily trend below 20/50D MAs, daily MACD < 0, price below broken 500–505 support, pivot S1 overhead (~493) acting as cap, 1H double-top at 493.8, inability to hold above 492–494.
• Neutral-to-bullish counters: 1H still above an intraday rising trendline (~485) and short-term demand at 480–482; Daily RSI not extreme. Net effect: Rallies into 495–498 are higher-odds sell zones; breakdown through 484–482 accelerates to 478–476.

15. 24-hour outlook and path scenarios

• Base case (55%): Fade to 482–480 after a minor pop to 492–495; hold 476–480 into the following session.
• Bear case extension (25%): Lose 482 early, accelerate to 476 then probe 472–474; only if broader crypto weakens in tandem.
• Bull risk case (20%): Reclaim 498–500 and convert into support; squeeze to 505–510. That would invalidate the immediate short bias.

Risk management notes (for context of the trade idea)

• Optimal short entry: 495.5–498.0 (limit/scale). Stop: 505.5 (above whole-number and supply shelf). Target: 476.0 (front-run 474–475 cluster). Approx R:R ≈ 2:1 if entered near 495.8.
• If price never reaches 495–498 and instead breaks 484–482 first, a momentum short add-on is viable toward 476, but with tighter stops above the breakdown level.
• If 498–500 is reclaimed and held for 1–2 hours, stand aside; that opens a path to 505–510 where a new assessment is needed.

Bottom line

• Macro downtrend + intraday failure at 493.8 + pivot structure below S1 argues for selling strength. The cleanest location is the 495–498 supply band with take-profit into 476–478, aligning with intraday fibs and demand.

Prediction for next 24 hours

• Range: 476 – 498, with a mild bearish skew. Probable close in the 480–486 area barring a broad-crypto squeeze.