BCH coiling under $505: ascending-triangle setup targeting $517–522 in the next 24 hours

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis for BCH (next 24 hours)

Context and market structure

• Timeframe blend used: Daily (trend and regime), 4H/1H (execution and pattern), 15m (timing via intraday structure). Current price: $502.61.
• Regime summary: After an October breakdown to the $460–480 area, BCH put in a reaction low on Nov 6 (~$462.6) and is now in a countertrend recovery. The last three daily closes show a reversal thrust (Nov 7), a digestion day (Nov 8), and a constructive follow-through today (Nov 9) back above $500.
• Structural read: Short-term higher lows since Nov 6 (≈$462.6 → $472.4 → $489–493 → ~$498), with repeated tests of $503–505. This forms an ascending triangle/coil under resistance. A sustained break >$504–505 can open a path toward $511–518.

Support/resistance (confluence map)

• Immediate support: $498–500 (hourly volume shelf and prior breakout attempts); then $492–494 (50% retrace of 462→520 swing); deeper $488–490 and $481–483 (daily pivot S1 proximity).
• Immediate resistance: $503.5–505 (hourly supply/neckline); $511–514 (classic pivot R1 ≈$511.6 and Nov 7 supply); $520–522 (61.8% retrace of 10/26 high → 11/6 low; prior distribution shelf). A clean reclaim of $505 often targets R1 ($511.6) next.

Momentum and oscillators

• RSI (daily): Neutral-bullish, estimated mid- to high-40s/low-50s, lifting from oversold on Nov 6. Room to extend upward before overbought; supports a push into $511–518 if resistance breaks.
• RSI (1H): Range-bound 45–60 with mild positive slope; supports an ascending triangle breakout scenario on a push above $504–505.
• Stochastics (1H/4H): Reset during intraday pullbacks while price held higher lows—constructive, signaling potential energy for a measured leg higher.

Trend and moving averages

• Daily 20-SMA: Estimated ~520–525; price below it, implying broader downtrend remains, but mean-reversion pull toward the 20-SMA favors upside room ($515–525) if momentum persists.
• 50/200-SMAs: Well above price (50-SMA likely mid-/high-500s), confirming macro downtrend intact, but not impeding a 24h countertrend pop.
• Short EMAs (5/9/12 daily): Curling up with price now near/above the shortest EMAs—early-stage momentum turn.

Volatility and ranges

• ATR (daily) estimated ~$24–$30 after October’s spike. A 24h 1x-ATR expansion from $502 implies feasible spans $488–$532. A conservative target band for the next session is $510–520, with tail odds toward $522 if momentum accelerates.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band near ~$520; lower band ≈$490–495. Price bounced off/near the lower band on Nov 6 and is migrating toward the mid-band—classic mean-reversion pathway to ~$520.
• Keltner vs Bollinger: BB width > KC width post-volatility event shows ongoing expansion potential; a controlled grind higher is consistent with today’s steady bid.

MACD and histogram

• Daily MACD: Below zero but inflecting upward; histogram contracting toward positive. This typically precedes a push to test the 20-day moving average region (i.e., ~$520).
• 4H/1H MACD: Positive or crossing positive; supports near-term continuation above $505 with momentum follow-through into $511–518.

Ichimoku (daily)

• Price below Cloud (bearish regime), but Tenkan (≈$498–505) crossed/lifting over price on intraday pullbacks; Kijun (est. mid-$530s) is flat and can act as an upside magnet over multiple sessions. In 24h, the Tenkan hold above ~$498 is constructive; a close >$505 strengthens the setup.

Fibonacci analysis (key swings)

• Oct 26 high ($558.7) → Nov 6 low ($462.4):
  • 38.2% = ~$499 (now reclaimed)
  • 50% = ~$510.5 (first target)
  • 61.8% = ~$522.1 (stretch target)
• Nov 6 low ($462.6) → Nov 7 high ($520.0):
  • 38.2% pullback ≈ $498.1 (recent floor)
  • 50% ≈ $491.3 (next downside guardrail) Confluence: price holding >$498 strengthens the case for a C-leg toward $515–522 (an ABC corrective rally).

Classical patterns and candle context

• Ascending triangle on the 1H under $503.5–505 with higher lows at ~$497–499: bullish continuation probability if resistance breaks with volume.
• Possible inverse head-and-shoulders on intraday: L-shoulder (Nov 4–5: $481–489), Head (Nov 6: $462), R-shoulder (Nov 8–9: $492–498). Neckline ≈$505; measured move into $520–525 aligns with Fib and BB mid-band targets.
• Daily candles: Nov 7 long-bodied bullish candle from extreme oversold; Nov 8 indecision doji; Nov 9 green follow-through reclaiming $500—classic continuation sequence.

Volume and participation

• Volume spike during late-Oct/early-Nov liquidation; recent sessions lighter but constructive on green hours, with increasing prints during tests of $503–504—suggesting supply absorption.
• Volume shelf/Point of Control region near $500 creates a strong battleground; once decisively above, the next high-volume node is around $511–514, then lighter volume into $520 (where supply may re-emerge).

Intraday execution metrics

• VWAP (today) approximates just under/around $500–501; price sustaining above VWAP into the close is a positive sign for continuation.
• Classic daily pivots (computed from Nov 8 H/L/C: 514.80/486.50/495.84):
  • Pivot (P) ≈ $499.0
  • R1 ≈ $511.6
  • R2 ≈ $527.3
  • S1 ≈ $483.3 Price is above P and coiling below R1. Typical path is a test of R1 if the consolidation breaks up.

Elliott-wave micro framing

• Likely 5-down into Nov 6, now in an ABC corrective structure:
  • A: 462 → 520
  • B: 520 → 496–498 retrace
  • C: unfolding now, projected into 0.618–1.0 extension cluster around $516–522 (fits pivots/Fib/BB mid-band).

Risk scenarios and invalidation

• Bullish invalidation (near-term): sustained move below $498 negates the immediate ascending triangle impulse and reopens $492–494 and $488–490. A daily close back below $495 increases odds of retesting $491 and possibly $483 (pivot S1 zone).
• Upside failure zone: $511–514 is first significant supply; rejection there without follow-through could cause a fade back to $500–502 before another attempt.

24-hour path expectation (probabilistic outline)

• Base case (bullish, ~60%): Break and hold above $504–505, extension to $511–514 (R1), and a continuation probe toward $516–518. Stretch to $520–522 if momentum accelerates and broader crypto tone is supportive.
• Alternate (range, ~25%): Continued chop $498–505, false breaks both sides, net close around $503.
• Bear case (~15%): Loss of $498 leads to a quick test of $492–494; deeper if broad market weakens, toward $488–490, before stabilizing.

Synthesis and trade thesis

• Multiple tools point to a constructive 24h bounce continuation: price above intraday VWAP and daily pivot, positive short-term MACD, RSI neutral with upside room, ascending triangle under $505, and strong confluence targets at $511–518 and $520–522. While the macro daily trend is still down (below 20/50/200 SMAs and below the Cloud), the mean-reversion magnet toward the 20-SMA (~$520) supports a tactical long.

Decision and execution

• Bias: Buy dips into the $499–501 area or a decisive breakout through $505. For a single optimal entry, a limit near the volume shelf ($500 zone) offers the best risk-adjusted profile toward $517–518 within 24h.
• Profit objective (24h): $517–518 (R1-to-0.618-Fib confluence).