BCH at the Brink: Fade the 507–511 Bounce, Aim for a 495 Test

Summary view

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bearish-to-range. Expect a reflex bounce into 507–512, then fade toward 495–493 if 500 breaks and holds below.
• Key levels: Resistance 507–509 (intraday supply/VWAP zone), 512–516 (20D SMA≈516), 521–523 (session high, overhead supply). Supports 503–501 (38.2% retrace of 465.8→523.3 leg), 500 psych, 495 (50% retrace), 489 (61.8% retrace), 481–472 (daily swing supports).

Step-by-step, multi-tool analysis

1. Trend and structure (multi-timeframe)

• Daily: Since early Oct, lower highs/lower lows. Big liquidation 10 Oct to ~485, then late-Oct relief rally to ~559, then November rollover to new low (~466 on 6 Nov). Bounce off that low hasn’t reclaimed the 20D/50D averages; structure remains distributive beneath resistance.
• 1H (intraday 9–10 Nov): Impulse up to 523 at 13:00 UTC, then steady lower highs and lower lows into 22:00. That sequence suggests the 523 spike was exhaust/stop run; sellers reasserted control. Price now hovering just above 503–504 pivot with momentum waning.
• Market structure takeaway: Downtrend on daily, corrective bounce intraday that is losing steam. Until 516–520 is reclaimed on a closing basis, rallies are sellable.

2. Moving averages

• 10D SMA ≈ 505.5 (est). Price ~504, marginally below: short-term momentum neutral-to-weak.
• 20D SMA ≈ 516.4 (est). Price below: medium-term down bias.
• 50D SMA likely in high 540s–560s given Aug–Sep prints: well above price; broader trend down.
• 1H EMAs (qualitative): Post-523 pullback, price is trading below intraday 20/50-EMA ribbon, indicating intraday down drift.
• Read-through: Multiple timeframe MA alignment is bearish/neutral; rallies into 507–516 likely face supply.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) ≈ 36–37 (est from last 14 closes). Below 40 implies bearish momentum, but not oversold; room to fall.
• 1H RSI: rolled over post 523 and failed to regain 50 decisively, consistent with distribution intraday.
• Stochastics (qualitative): From intraday overbought after 523 spike now cycling lower, supporting a fade on bounces.
• MACD (daily, qualitative): Below zero with a small improvement after 6 Nov, histogram flattening; still sub-zero—rallies vulnerable.

4. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily est ≈ 24–28. Implies typical 24h swing ≈ ±5%. From 504, that’s roughly 480–529 envelope.
• Bollinger Bands(20): Midline ≈ 516; price below midline, closer to lower half; not a squeeze. A drift along lower band context often persists.

5. Volume/flow signals

• Distribution days: 10 Oct selloff (very high volume) set the tone; late Oct up days also heavy but were sold into into early Nov.
• 7 Nov up-thrust had very high volume (accumulation attempt), yet follow-through stalled under 520–523 and rolled over—suggesting overhead supply remains thick.
• OBV (qualitative): Sideways since late Oct after a sharp drop; no decisive accumulation footprint post 7 Nov.
• Intraday today: Rising into 523 on healthy flow, then declining volume on the pullback that stayed below key MAs—typical for a bear flag resolution lower if 500 snaps.

6. Support/Resistance map (confluence)

• 523–521: Today’s spike high; prior supply shelf.
• 516–512: 20D SMA ≈516, 1H supply; pivot band. Failure there keeps bears in control.
• 509–507: Prior 1H support turned resistance; 20:00–21:00 rejections clustered here; near classic R1 from pivots (see below).
• 503–501: Intraday pivot box, also 38.2% retrace of 465.8→523.3 move (~501.3). A sustained break below increases odds of 495 test.
• 500: Psychological round number; often first reaction zone.
• 495: 50% retrace of 465.8→523.3; strong magnet in breakdowns.
• 489: 61.8% retrace; next high-probability demand if 495 fails.

7. Fibonacci mapping

• Most recent swing: Low 6 Nov 465.77 to high 10 Nov 523.32. Retraces from 523.32:
  • 38.2% ≈ 501.3 (currently holding marginally)
  • 50% ≈ 494.5
  • 61.8% ≈ 487.7
• Current price 504 just above 38.2%. Break-and-hold below ~501 favors a drive into 494–488.

8. Pivot points (classic, derived from 9 Nov H/L/C ≈ 505.03/489.37/503.32)

• P ≈ 499.24, R1 ≈ 509.11, R2 ≈ 514.91, S1 ≈ 493.45, S2 ≈ 483.57
• Price rejected around R1–R2 band intraday and is now below R1; the path of least resistance favors tests of P then S1 (≈493.5) if 500 breaks.

9. Ichimoku (directional bias, qualitative)

• Daily: Price below Kijun baseline (~520s by proxy) and below cloud; Tenkan likely below Kijun; lagging span beneath price—bearish regime.
• 1H: Slip under conversion/base lines after 523 spike; thin future cloud likely tilted down; signals favor selling rips.

10. Candlestick/price action reads

• 7 Nov: Wide-range bullish candle off new swing low (short covering). 8–9 Nov: Inside day and modest up close—indecision. 10 Nov: Small-bodied candle near 504 after intraday failure at 523—spinning top/doji-like at resistance rejection, often preceding continuation lower if support snaps.
• 1H: Series of lower highs after 13:00 spike; multiple upper wicks 507–512 show supply.

11. VWAP and mean reversion (intraday)

• Approx VWAP for the session skewed around 511–512 given morning strength; price now below, signaling intraday sellers in control. Reversions toward 507–512 are sell zones unless reclaimed and held.

12. Elliott wave framing (short-term)

• Tentative 5-wave off 6 Nov low: 1 up (to 7 Nov), 2 down (8 Nov), 3 up (intraday 10 Nov to 523), now 4 down unfolding into 503–501; a modest 5th could target 525–530 IF 500 holds and 512 is reclaimed. Failure to reclaim 512 before breaking 500 negates upside count and supports a continuation lower into 495/489.

13. Probability-weighted path next 24 hours

• Base case (~55%): Weak bounce into 507–511 sells; break of 501–500 leads to a probe of 495, potentially a spike to 493 (S1) before stabilizing.
• Alt bullish (~30%): Hold above 501, reclaim 512; grind to 516–520 (20D SMA/pivot R2 area). Requires strong Asia bid and breadth improvement.
• Tail risk (~15%): Loss of 500 with momentum and broader crypto risk-off drives to 489–485 (61.8% retrace/S2) quickly before a reaction bounce.

14. Risk management and invalidation (for a short setup)

• Ideal short zone 507–509 with room to 512; invalidation on a sustained reclaim/close above 516–520.
• Downside targets 495 first, then 493–489. ATR suggests these are reachable within 24h.

Decision synthesis

• Confluences for a short: Price below 10/20D SMAs; daily RSI sub-40; intraday lower highs under 523; failure at R1–R2; VWAP overhead; fib confluence below 501 opens path to 495/489; strong overhead supply 512–523. Buying here would be counter the higher-timeframe trend unless 512–516 is reclaimed.
• Therefore, the tactical edge is to Sell into a bounce toward 507–509 or on a break of 501, with take-profit near 493–495.

24h price prediction

• Expected range: 489–516. Baseline path: bounce to 507–511, rejection, then drift/break below 500 to tag 495–493 before a late-session stabilization.