BCH Rejected at 0.382: Short the Pop to 522, Target the 500 Break

Executive summary

• Direction next 24h: Mildly bearish to range-bound. Expected range 495–525 with bearish skew; base case is a fade of rallies into 521–523 back toward 500.
• Rationale: Rejection at Fibonacci 38.2% (≈529) aligns with intraday supply; price is below the 20D SMA (~519) and beneath a declining 50D trend, while momentum rolls over on 4H. Volume is heaviest near 505–510 (HVN), acting as a magnet; pivots place R1 ≈522 and S1 ≈497, matching observed rejection/support.

1. Multi-timeframe price action and structure

• Larger swing context (daily): Mid-September peak at 650.36 (9/18) followed by a persistent downtrend to the 10/17 capitulation low at 454.59. A reactionary rally topped near 558–559 (10/26–11/1 cluster), then a series of lower highs. The current 508 area sits inside a broad 480–560 consolidation, but under key moving averages and below the rally midpoints.
• Recent daily sequence (late Oct → now):
  • 10/26 thrust to 558.7 failed to extend; multiple closes in the mid-550s were sold.
  • Early Nov troughs (11/3: 505.53; 11/4: 481.15; 11/6: 472.38) established a demand belt 472–481. A bounce reclaimed 500–520, but 11/11 produced a long upper wick and a close back at 505.4.
  • Today (11/12) intraday: impulsive pop to 531.5 in Europe/London hours, faded sharply to 499.4, then stabilized ~508. That’s a classic “sell the rip” day rejecting resistance and closing back under the 20D mean.
• 4H/1H microstructure:
  • 4H shows a descending channel from the 10/26 high. Today’s 531.5 print kissed the channel top and the 0.382 retracement (see below) and was rejected. Subsequent candles made a lower high and faded toward 505, maintaining bearish structure.
  • 1H shows supply stacked at 528–531 and local resistance around 521–523. Bids appear 500–505 with a thin pocket into 496–498 (potential stop-sweep zone).

2. Key levels and confluence

• Fibonacci retracements (swing 9/18 high 650.36 → 10/17 low 454.59):
  • 38.2%: 529.4 — today’s rejection zone (high 531.5). Strong confluence.
  • 50%: 552.5 — prior rally caps in late Oct/early Nov (multiple failures in the 554–559 band).
  • 61.8%: 575.6 — far overhead; unlikely in the next 24h absent a regime shift.
• Classic daily pivots (using 11/11 H/L/C = 530.57/504.67/505.41):
  • Pivot P ≈ 513.55; R1 ≈ 522.43; S1 ≈ 496.53; R2 ≈ 539.45; S2 ≈ 487.65.
  • Price today tagged above R1 early, failed to hold, then gravitated back under P. Expect ping-pong between P and S1 with tests of S1 likely if 505 gives way.
• Horizontal supply/demand zones:
  • Supply: 528–532 (fib 0.382 + channel top + intraday high), 541–546 (late Oct congestion), 557–560 (50% fib neighborhood and prior highs).
  • Demand: 505–500 (HVN and psychological), 496–498 (pivot S1 pocket/stop run), 490–492 (extension target), 481–472 (major demand from early Nov lows).
• Volume profile/VWAP:
  • Visible range HVN centered 505–510 from late Oct → present; this is the mean-reversion magnet.
  • Light volume node around 515–518 contributes to fast moves through the pivot; another LVN just under 500 implies if 500 breaks, a swift tag of 496–492 is plausible.
  • Anchored VWAP (from the 10/17 capitulation low) estimates near 510–512; we’re oscillating around/below it — slightly bearish bias while under AVWAP.

3. Trend and moving averages

• 20D SMA ≈ 518.6 (est.): Price at 508 is below the short-term mean → bearish tilt.
• 50D SMA (est.) ≈ mid-550s, declining: Confirms broader downtrend still intact; 20D < 50D (short-term weakness vs intermediate trend).
• 200D SMA (context) likely above 560 given prior regime; still bearish on longer horizon.
• Slope: 20D flattening after early-Nov bounce, now curling down post 11/11 rejection.

4. Momentum and volatility

• RSI:
  • Daily RSI mid-40s (≈45–47 est.) — below 50; momentum negative but not oversold.
  • 4H RSI rolled over from mid-50s to low-40s after the 531 rejection; consistent with a fresh downswing.
  • 1H RSI oscillates 35–50; rebounds are failing near 50–55 — classic bear-market RSI behavior intraday.
• MACD:
  • Daily MACD below zero line; histogram had improved in early Nov but is flattening — risk of a fresh bear cross if we close sub-508–510.
  • 4H MACD crossed down today; histogram expanding negative post 531 rejection → favors short bias over next sessions.
• Stochastics:
  • Daily stoch turning down from mid-range — room to travel lower before oversold.
  • 4H/1H stoch gave sell signals following the failed breakout.
• ATR/Volatility:
  • 14D ATR ≈ 28–32 (est.). Today’s realized range (~32) matches that; expect continued 25–35 range for next 24h. This supports a tactical fade strategy at the edges.

5. Ichimoku, Bollinger Bands, parabolic and ADX

• Ichimoku (daily): Price below a projected cloud zone (~540–560). Tenkan likely ~514–516; Kijun around ~520. Trading below both and below the cloud → bearish to neutral.
• Ichimoku (4H): Price under Tenkan and Kijun with a bearish cross; span below price reinforces resistance at 521–523.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2 on daily): Mid-band ~20SMA ≈ 519; lower band estimated low-490s; price is below mid-band and has room to probe 497–492 without being statistically stretched.
• Parabolic SAR: Likely flipped above price on 4H following the intraday fade → short confirmation.
• ADX: Moderate, ~18–22 on daily — trend strength not extreme; environment favors mean reversion fades within a bearish channel.

6. Pattern diagnostics and channels

• Descending channel from 10/26 high: Upper boundary intersected ~529–532 today; lower boundary aligns with 492–497 near term. Respect of the upper boundary plus failure at the 0.382 fib adds high-confidence confluence to shorting rallies.
• Candles:
  • 11/11: Long upper shadow near 530 with a weak close — supply signal.
  • 11/12 intraday: Shooting-star/upper-wick sequence on 1H, then lower highs. Price acceptance below pivot P (~513.5) is bearish into the US close/Asia open.

7. Pivot-based playbook and scenarios (24h)

• Base case (≈55%): Fade rallies to 521–523 (R1 area), target 498–500 (S1 zone) with potential extension to 492 on a stop-sweep below 500. Structure/momentum favors this path.
• Range case (≈30%): Chop between 505 and 518 around the 510 HVN; multiple reversion trades but no decisive break.
• Upside break risk (≈15%): Sustained reclaim of 523 and hourly close above 527 would squeeze toward 534–541 (next supply), with invalidation of the short tactical setup. A daily close back above 534 would shift bias to neutral/up for Friday.

8. Risk management and execution

• Optimal entry: Use a sell limit on a reactive bounce into 521–523. This aligns with R1, intraday supply, and the 4H mean. If more conservative, layer 50% at 518.5 and 50% at 522.0 to improve fill odds; average ~520.
• Stop (invalidation): 532–533 (above today’s high cluster and the 0.382 fib zone). Above that, shorts are wrong short-term.
• Targets: First take-profit 505–502; primary TP 498; aggressive runner 492–490 if 500 breaks on momentum.
• R/R example: Entry 521.8, stop 532.5 (risk ~10.7), TP 498 (reward ~23.8) → R/R ≈ 2.2:1; to 492 → ≈ 2.8:1.

9. What flips the view

• Bullish flip triggers: Hourly acceptance >527 and daily close >534 (back over 20D SMA cluster and prior wick highs) opens 541–546; sustained strength could target 552–560 (50% fib). Without that, rallies remain sellable.

10. 24-hour price path projection

• Asia: Drift 506 → 503 with sporadic bounces; risk of quick probe 500–498 if liquidity thins.
• Europe: Mean-revert bounce toward 513–518; if buyers push, fade 521–523.
• US: If 521–523 rejected, momentum carries back to 500 with possible stop-run to 492–495 before rebounding into the 505–510 close.

Conclusion

• Today’s technical confluence (fib 0.382 rejection, under 20D SMA/pivot, 4H MACD roll, BB mid-band resistance, descending channel cap) favors tactically shorting strength rather than chasing downside. Expect a 495–525 range with a tilt to test sub-500. Execute with a sell limit near 522 and take profits near 498, leaving optional runners for 492.