Fade the Pop: Shorting BCH Into 510–516 Supply While Momentum Stays Heavy

Comprehensive, step-by-step multi-technique read-through of BCH (USD)

1. Market context and timeframe alignment

• Instrument: Bitcoin Cash (BCH), USD
• Current price: 499.59
• Data windows used: Daily bars (Aug 18 → Nov 15) and hourly bars for Nov 14–15 for execution timing and intraday structure.
• Primary trading horizon: Next 24 hours, with intraday triggers aligned to daily context.

2. Trend structure and market regime

• Daily structure: A series of lower highs since the Oct 26–29 rebound (~558–566 zone) and failure to reclaim the mid-550s. Post-Nov 1, the sequence produced: lower high (Nov 10 ~523), another lower high (Nov 12–13 ~531/530), and an even lower intraday high Nov 15 (~516.9) with a selloff back under 500. This is a classic short-term downtrend/descending channel behavior.
• Higher-timeframe support: 480–485 has repeatedly acted as demand (Oct 10–12 and Nov 4/14 reactions). Deeper anchor low: 462.6 (Nov 4). Overhead supply is stacked 505–517, then 523–531.
• Regime: Weak-bearish with mean-reversion bounces that fail at resistance. “Sell-the-rip” tends to outperform “buy-the-dip” unless 516–523 is reclaimed.

3. Moving averages (daily)

• 20D SMA ≈ 518.8 (approximate from last 20 closes). Price < 20D: bearish slope and location.
• 50D SMA (approx) sits well above current price given the long August–September period around 560–600 followed by the October breakdown: bearish.
• Price below short and mid MAs → rallies are more likely to be sold until a base forms above the 20D/50D.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (approx): ~33. This is weak but not extreme. It allows bounces, but momentum remains negative. Note that today’s intraday pop to 516 did not flip RSI into neutral/bullish territory.
• Stochastic daily: Likely near the lower band attempting a tentative curl-up; however, the failure at 510–517 on Nov 15 hourly bars hints the stochastic crossover on lower TFs is rolling down.
• MACD daily: Sub-zero and likely below or near the signal line. Histogram stabilizing but still negative. No confirmed bullish momentum shift yet.

5. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily ≈ 32 (derived from last 14 TRs). Expected 24h envelope ≈ ±1.0×ATR around spot implies a probabilistic band near 467–532.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid near the 20SMA ≈ 518.8. Lower band estimated ≈ 467 (broadly consistent with ATR and S1). Price sits between the lower band and the mid-band; Friday’s close kissed the lower edge, Saturday’s pop faded below the mid.
• Keltner Channels: Price holding below mid-channel; volatility expanded on down days (Oct 10, Nov 4, Nov 14), a bearish sign.

6. Support/resistance and market profile cues

• Immediate resistance: 504–507 (intraday supply/vWAP region), then 510–517 (session high 516.9). Confluence cluster: R1 from pivots sits ~504.6, the intraday VWAP region today likely centered in the 504–506 band, and prior sell impulses originated there. This is a prime fade zone.
• Immediate support: 495–496 (intraday), stronger 490–492, and then 480–485. Below 480 opens 470 and 466–468 (S1 and Bollinger lower estimate) quickly.
• Daily pivot (from Nov 14 H/L/C): P ≈ 491.25; R1 ≈ 504.56; S1 ≈ 466.49. Price oscillated above P but failed to hold above R1/R1+ today, validating that 504–507 cluster as supply.

7. Intraday structure, VWAP and tape

• Hourly prints Nov 15: bounce from ~480s to 516.9 by 13:00Z, then a controlled bleed to sub-500 by 21:00–22:05Z. This is a classic “rally into supply then fade,” keeping VWAP overhead (approx 504–506 by day’s distribution). Price closing beneath VWAP is bearish into the next session, favoring pops to be sold.

8. Volume and money flow

• Post-October breakdown days saw heavy distribution (Oct 10, Oct 17, Nov 4, Nov 14). Rallies on lighter volume with subsequent heavier sell days indicate sellers in control.
• OBV/CMF (inferred): Net-negative drift since early November. No evidence of sustained accumulation in the 505–517 area.

9. Ichimoku (qualitative read)

• Price below cloud, and Tenkan likely below Kijun with the Kijun flat/up near ~517–520 region, acting as a magnet/resistance. Cloud overhead = headwind for trend reversal.

10. DMI/ADX (qualitative)

• Negative DI likely above Positive DI; ADX a moderate 20–25 and rising post the midweek selloff, indicating trend resumption risk to the downside if 495 breaks decisively.

11. Fibonacci mapping (near-term swings)

• From the Nov 10 swing high (~523.3) to Nov 14 low (~477.9), the 50–61.8% retrace lies ~500–505 and ~508–510. Today’s session pressed 510–517 and was rejected, reinforcing the 505–510 fib confluence as sell territory.
• From the Nov 4 extreme low (462.6) to the Oct 26 high (558.7), the 50% sits ~510–511, adding another layer of resistance confluence around 510–516.

12. Candles and patterns

• Daily: A string of lower closes with failed follow-through on bounces. Nov 15 intraday produced a “pop-and-fade” with a long upper excursion and close back near session lows, which is distributional.
• Pattern: Short-term descending channel / emerging descending triangle with a flat-ish base at 480–485 and compressing lower highs. A break of 480 would target 470/466.

13. Statistical edge and scenario analysis (next 24h)

• Base case (55%): Range trade with bearish bias: 490–508. Pops into 504–507 get sold; a drift toward 491–492 likely, with 485–490 tested if liquidity thins.
• Bear extension (25%): Clean break <490 brings 482–485 quickly; if 480 gives way, 470–472 then 466–468 (S1/BB lower) becomes reachable within 1×ATR.
• Bull surprise (20%): Reclaim 507 and hold above 510; a squeeze toward 516–517. Only sustained acceptance >517–523 flips the tape bullish for 525–531 retest.

14. Trade thesis and execution plan

• Thesis: The dominant short-term structure is sell-the-rip into 504–507 and especially 510–516, with momentum and MAs aligned bearishly. The intraday VWAP overhead and pivot confluence bolster the edge for a tactical short.
• Entry (optimal): Use a limit sell on a bounce into 504.8 (proximate to R1/VWAP band and the 50–61.8% retrace area of the last leg down). If the market’s weak and doesn’t reach 505, an alternative is sell a breakdown/retest under 495; however, the optimal risk-reward is at 504–507.
• Take profit (24h realistic): 491.0 (near daily pivot P = 491.25 and above local shelf at 490). This locks gains before 485–480 major support where buyers may defend.
• Invalidation (not an order, but risk guide): Above 517–523 sustained acceptance. A wick is tolerable; multiple hourly closes >517 invalidate the short bias.
• Risk/Reward: Entry 504.8 → TP 491.0 = ~13.8 pts (~2.8%); a discretionary stop would be ~517.5 (risk ~12.7 pts). R:R ≈ 1.1:1 on the first target with high fill probability; extended target toward 485 would improve R:R to ~1.6:1, but TP at 491 is chosen for higher hit rate within 24h.

15. What would flip me bullish in the next 24h?

• A reclaim and acceptance above 510 with VWAP flip to support, then a push/hold >517. If that occurs with rising volume, the path opens to 523–531 and would invalidate this short setup.

Bottom line: Probability-weighted play is to fade a bounce into 504–507 with a take-profit just above the stronger bid zone at ~491. Unless 517–523 is reclaimed, the path of least resistance remains mildly down to sideways-down in the next 24 hours.