BCH ignites from a triple-bottom base — aiming for the 560 handle on a buy-the-dip setup

Summary view

• Regime shift today: BCH reversed from a multi‑week base around 480 and ripped into the 540s on expanding volume, reclaiming key moving averages and breaking above the neckline of a multi‑touch base (517–523). The tape now favors upside continuation toward 555–565 over the next 24 hours, with a high likelihood of a tactical pullback/retest first.

1. Multi‑timeframe market structure

• Daily trend since mid‑September: a sequence of lower highs from 650 (Sep 18) to ~559 (Oct 26) to ~555 (Nov 1) defined a descending trendline. Price action then carved a base with repeated defenses of 480–485 (Nov 4, Nov 14, Nov 20).
• Today’s break: The surge above 512–517 and 523 (prior supply shelf/neckline) shifts structure from distribution to accumulation. That’s a classic Wyckoff “Sign of Strength” (SOS) post “Spring” (Nov 20 low 480.16) with follow‑through.
• Intraday (hourly 2025‑11‑21): Progressive higher lows/higher highs from 10:00 through 22:00, a strong expansion candle 21:00 (508.9 → 540.6) on heavy volume confirms initiative buying/short covering.

2. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20‑day SMA ≈ 501.1 (computed from last 20 closes). Price = 541.5 is well above the 20‑SMA; short‑term trend is up.
• 50‑day SMA (estimated) ≈ 545 ±3, given September’s 590–600 prints and October’s slide to ~500s. Price is approaching but not decisively through the 50‑SMA; a daily close above ~548–550 would confirm a mid‑trend regime change.
• 9‑EMA (estimated low 510s to high 510s after today’s jump). Price > 9‑EMA and > 20‑SMA = bullish alignment.
• Slope: 9‑EMA turning up > 20‑SMA; 20‑SMA flattening/turning up—a constructive sequence for continuation.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) (est.): moved from sub‑50 to ~60 area on today’s thrust. Bullish but not overbought; room to 65–70 before typical stall.
• MACD (12/26/9): Histogram inflecting positive; a signal‑line cross up is likely imminent/just occurred, consistent with the breakout.
• Stochastic: Fast K > D and both rising out of mid‑range—supports near‑term upside, but after a big day a minor intraday fade is common before next leg.

4. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) (est.) ≈ 26–32, with a large expansion today (true range >90 due to washout to ~450s intraday). Expect elevated but mean‑reverting intraday volatility next 24h.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Middle ≈ 501; upper band estimated high‑540s. Price in the upper band but not a full band‑rider yet—scope to push toward upper 550s if momentum persists.

5. Volume, OBV, and order‑flow context

• Volume: Today’s daily volume (~831M) ranks at/near the top of the recent distribution, rivaled only by major pivot sessions (Oct 10 crash, late‑Oct rebound). Breakouts on expanding volume have higher persistence.
• Breakout quality: The 21:00 hour surge (large spread, high volume) suggests real demand and likely short covering. Follow‑through hours held >540, confirming acceptance above the neckline.
• VWAP: Session anchored VWAP likely in low‑510s; price holding above is supportive. A retest of 528–533 or even 518–523 would be a buyable check‑back if it occurs.

6. Pattern analysis

• Triple‑bottom / inverse H&S variant: Lows on Nov 4 (~481), Nov 14 (~480), Nov 20 (~480) with a relatively flat neckline 517–523. Measured move: 523 − 480 ≈ 43. Target ≈ 523 + 43 = 566. This aligns with the 558–565 resistance cluster.
• Fibonacci confluence:
  • From Oct 26 high 558.7 → Nov 20 low 480.2: 61.8% = ~529; 78.6% = ~541.7 (where price is now); 100% = 558.7. Sitting at 78.6% fib often produces a brief pause before the 100% test—consistent with a small pullback then push to ~558–565.
  • From Sep 18 high 650 → Oct 17 low 469.9: 38.2% ≈ 532, 50% ≈ 560, 61.8% ≈ 588. Price reclaimed 38.2% and is magnetized toward the 50% at ~560.
• Trendline test: Down‑trendline from Sep 18 through late‑Oct/early‑Nov highs likely intersects around 550–555. A decisive break/close above ~555 would mark a trend break and open 580–600.

7. Support/resistance map (nearest levels)

• Supports: 533–535 (intraday shelf), 528–530 (fib/recent congestion), 523 (neckline), 517 (gap shelf), 505, 495, 480.
• Resistances: 545–547 (local supply), 552–555 (trendline zone), 558–565 (swing highs/cluster), 580, 600.

8. Statistical context and mean reversion

• 20‑day Z‑score ≈ (541.5 − 501.1)/σ. Using a rough 20‑day σ ≈ 22–24, Z ≈ +1.7 to +1.9: stretched but not extreme. Expect a modest pullback toward 533–535 or 528–530 before continuation.

9. Wyckoff/Elliott/DeMark color

• Wyckoff: Spring (480) → SOS (break above 523) → potential Backup (BUEC) retest likely near 528–533. Successful backup favors markup to ~560.
• Elliott (tactical): Today’s thrust resembles Wave 3 of a small 5‑wave from 480. A Wave‑4 shallow pullback to ~0.236–0.382 of the thrust (approx 12–20 points) targets 533–529, then Wave‑5 to 555–565.
• DeMark (qualitative): Large range expansion after a completed down‑count often flips to an upside setup; would expect a short exhaustion window only into 555–565.

10. Intraday playbook for next 24 hours

• Base case (60%): Early dip/retest to 533–535 or 528–530, then push to 555–565. Close near 558.
• Momentum extension (25%): Minimal dip; break >545/547 quickly and run into 560 with only shallow flags.
• Failure (15%): Rejection at 78.6% fib (~542) and loss of 523 neckline sends a larger retrace toward 505–510. Less likely given volume/structure but must be respected.

11. Trade plan

• Bias: Buy dips; avoid chasing strength into 558–565 resistance without a pullback.
• Optimal entry: 533 area (midpoint of 533–535 support and just above the 38.2% retrace from the intraday impulse), with contingency interest down to 528–530 if deeper check‑back occurs.
• Profit target (next 24h): 558–560 (below the 558.7 reference high and near the 50% fib from the Sep‑Oct leg). I will set 558.6 to increase fill probability.
• Invalidation/stop (for risk planning): A daily/hourly close back below 523 (neckline) compromises the breakout; a hard stop could be 521–522. This is not part of the requested output but is essential for risk control.

Conclusion

• The breakout above 523 on strong volume after a triple‑bottom at 480, alignment of short‑term MAs, RSI momentum shift, and fib/trendline targets collectively favor further upside within 24 hours toward 555–565. Expect a tactical dip first; the optimal plan is to buy a pullback near 533 and take profits into 558–559, reassessing a secondary push only after a confirmed daily close above ~560.