BCH: Shallow Dip, Then Drive — Targeting a 565–580 Re-Test Within 24 Hours

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish continuation with shallow pullbacks
• Expected path: Intraday fade toward 550–546 area, then reattempt 565–575. Break and hold above 566–571 opens 578–585 extension
• Key invalidation: Clean hourly close below 545 (23.6% Fib and micro shelf) would delay the move and risk a deeper 533 retest

1. Price action and market structure

• Daily context (Aug–Nov): After the October washout (10/10–10/19) to the 470s, BCH carved higher lows through November, culminating in a strong impulse 11/21–11/22 that reclaimed the 530s and tagged 566. Structure is transitioning from range to nascent uptrend
• Recent swing: 11/20 low 480.16 → 11/22 high 566.18 (+17.9%), current 554.49. Today’s daily candle (long lower wick to 522, close near highs) shows demand stepping in on dips — a classic bullish rejection/absorption signature
• Hourly tape (11/22): Impulse leg 538 → 565, consolidation 560 → 554. Micro trend remains higher highs/higher lows, with a pullback that’s (so far) shallow and orderly
• Support/resistance pivots (derived from repeat touch and volume nodes):
  • Resistance: 566–571 (today’s high/late-Oct cluster), then 578–585 (pre-breakdown supply pocket); stretch 591–604 (R2/early Oct supply)
  • Support: 549–551 (intraday shelf), 545–546 (23.6% Fib of 480→566 and HVN), 533–535 (38.2% Fib and breakout retest), 522 (session low — tail risk pivot)

2. Trend diagnostics (multi-timeframe)

• Daily MAs (approx):
  • 20-SMA ≈ 502 (price > 20-SMA by ~10%) — short-term trend up
  • 30-SMA ≈ 515 (price > 30-SMA) — confirms strengthening trend
  • 50-SMA (approx mid-540s to low-550s) is being reclaimed/approached — constructive for intermediate trend if held
• Hourly EMAs: Price oscillating just above the 20/50-EMA zone (low–mid 550s), a healthy pullback after a band ride. As long as price holds above 545–551, the short-term uptrend remains intact
• Ichimoku (daily, qualitative): Price above cloud; Tenkan > Kijun; lagging span above price — bullish stack. On lower timeframes, Tenkan/Kijun supports cluster in the 548–552 band

3. Momentum indicators

• RSI (daily, est): 58–62. Momentum positive but not overbought — room to run
• RSI (hourly, est): Mid-50s after cooling from overbought — classic reset within an uptrend
• MACD (daily): Line above signal, histogram positive and recently expanding — momentum shift confirmed. Minor intraday histogram contraction is consistent with consolidation, not reversal

4. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (daily): 20-SMA ~502; upper band ~561–563 (est). Price is just under the upper band after tagging it — typical of a trending phase with periodic mean reversion to rising mid-band. Pullbacks toward 545–551 are normal while trend persists
• ATR(14) daily (est): ~30–35. Expected 24h swing width ≈ ±25–35. Current 554 implies a plausible range 530–585; base case: 546–579 given supports/resistances

5. Fibonacci and classical pivots

• Fib of 11/20 low (480.16) → 11/22 high (566.18):
  • 23.6%: 545.9 (key first-support; shallow retrace consistent with strong trend)
  • 38.2%: 533.3 (breakout retest)
  • 50%: 523.2 (deeper, but still constructive while above 520)
• Floor pivots from today (H 566.11/L 522.11/C 554.49):
  • Pivot P: 547.57; R1: 573.03; R2: 591.57; S1: 529.03; S2: 503.57
  • Price above P biases upside toward R1. R1 at 573 aligns with visible resistance band; R2 is a stretch target if momentum re-accelerates

6. Volume, VWAP, and accumulation

• Volume: Two-session surge (11/21–11/22) materially above prior days — suggests genuine demand, not a thin liquidity pop
• Intraday VWAP (11/22): Estimated around 551–552 after heavy buy flows during the 11:00–20:00 UTC push. Current 554 is modestly above VWAP — a constructive bias. Dips toward VWAP (≈551) should attract buyers provided broader crypto risk remains stable
• OBV (qualitative): Rising over the last two sessions — accumulation footprint

7. Chart patterns and setups

• Double bottom / higher-low structure in mid-November (480–486 zone), followed by neckline reclaim in the 520s/530s. Target zone from the base width projects into mid/high 570s — closely matching R1 and the 578–585 supply pocket
• Intraday bull flag/ascending consolidation from 560 → 554 atop the 549–551 shelf. A push back through 560–565 with rising volume likely resolves higher
• Elliott wave (tactical): From 480, a 1–2–3 advance likely saw wave-3 local high near 566, with a shallow wave-4 pullback ongoing (toward 550). Wave-5 projection 578–585 fits confluence zones

8. Confluence map (what matters most)

• Bullish: Higher time-frame reclaim of key MAs; price above daily pivot; shallow Fib retracement; strong volume; daily candle shows rejection of lows; RSI not stretched; MACD positive
• Neutral to mildly bearish: Immediate resistance 566–571 overhead; failure to hold 545–551 would turn the current dip into a range retest at 533

9. 24-hour scenarios and probabilities (subjective)

• Base case (60%): Early dip toward 550–546, then a rotation higher to 565–575. Close near/above 565. If 571 breaks on momentum, print 578–582
• Bear case (25%): Lose 545 on an hourly close → accelerate to 538–535 (38.2% Fib). Buyers defend 533; range continues 533–560
• Stretch bull (15%): Quick reclaim 560 → break 566–571 → extension 579–585, with intraday spikes toward 588–592 (near R2), followed by late-day consolidation above 570

10. Trade plan (tactical) — precision levels

• Entry logic: Prefer a limit buy into the pullback at 549–551 (confluence of intraday shelf, near VWAP, just above 23.6% Fib). This optimizes reward-to-risk while participating in the prevailing impulse
• Initial take-profit focus: 579 (beneath 580 round and below 585 supply) to capture the next leg without demanding a full breakout to R2
• Invalidation/stop (risk control; not part of the required fields but vital): 542–545 zone. Clean hourly close below 545 (or a wick below 542) suggests a deeper retrace toward 533; I would step aside
• Risk-reward (indicative): Entry 551, TP 579 (+28); risk to 542 (−9) → R:R ≈ 3.1:1

11. What would change my mind

• A heavy-volume rejection from 565–571 combined with an hourly close below 545 would negate the immediate continuation and shift bias to a 533 retest. Conversely, a decisive break and hold above 571 with rising breadth would invite a momentum add-on into 585–592

12. Bottom line

• The higher-timeframe trend is turning up, momentum is positive, pullbacks are shallow, and volume confirms accumulation. The path of least resistance is a buy-the-dip toward 549–551 targeting a 579 test within 24 hours, with 545 as the key line in the sand