BCH breaks out above 600: targeting 610–624 after a 599–600 dip buy

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) — Full-spectrum, step-by-step technical read and 24h game plan

1. Market structure (Daily timeframe)

• Primary trend (last 3 months): From early September (~618) to mid-October, BCH trended down to an October low near 464–470, then built a base and transitioned to a series of higher lows through November. Today’s session (Dec 3) produced a decisive upside expansion into the low 600s.
• Swing sequence: Higher lows since mid-Nov (≈480 → 483 → 486 → 517 → 518 → 510 → 521 → 544) and now a higher high at 604, breaking the prior ceiling in the 556–566 zone. Structure is bullish and confirms a trend continuation phase rather than just a rebound.
• Regime shift evidence: Today’s candle is a large bullish marubozu-like bar (close at/near the high) on above-average volume, typical of a momentum regime shift and stop-run over prior swing highs.

2. Key levels (Derived from the dataset)

• Immediate supports: • 600/599 (newly minted intraday pivot; round number and retest zone) • 595–596 (intraday shelf from 16:00–19:00 UTC window) • 586–590 (hourly consolidation band; prior balance) • 580–582 (daily cluster; also near 61.8% retrace from the Sep high → Oct low move)
• Deeper supports: • 557–561 (former 50% Fib retrace and multi-week balance area) • 541–549 (late Nov supply-turned-demand block)
• Resistances ahead: • 606–616 (September supply zone; immediate overhead) • 624–625 (daily pivot R1 confluence and prior Sept swing high zone) • 650–651 (Sep 18 high; major overhead if momentum extends)

3. Momentum and trend tools

• Moving averages (approximate): • 20D SMA ≈ 526 (price ≈ 604 is well above; clear bullish impulse above short-term trend) • 50D trend (approx.): upward-sloping or flattening to up; price trades above. Implication: Momentum breakout with room for continuation; mean reversion risk exists but typically follows after a band walk attempt.
• RSI(14) daily (approx. from recent 14 periods): ~59–62. Interpretation: Bullish momentum in a “bull range,” not yet overbought. This leaves scope for a continuation push before a proper pullback.
• MACD daily: Positive cross with widening histogram (given the multi-session advance capped by today’s surge). Implication: Upside momentum acceleration is intact.
• Stochastic: Likely hovering in upper band; bullish but not yet signaling a firm reversal.

4. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily (approx.): ~28–32. Today’s range expanded (~60), indicating a volatility expansion day. Such days often lead to either band-walk continuation or a shallow pullback before the next leg.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily (approx.): • Middle band ~ 20D SMA ≈ 526 • Upper band estimated high 590s. Price closed above/near the upper band, indicating a breakout. Band-walk behavior commonly follows with brief dips to the 595–600 zone.
• Keltner Channels: Price outside upper Keltner implies strong momentum; breakouts often persist short-term.

5. Volume analytics

• Today’s volume is elevated relative to the recent baseline (several hundred million unit prints throughout the dataset). Price closed at session high on high volume—classic trend day profile with demand into the close. This type of day often attracts follow-through in the next session, especially if early dip buyers defend VWAP/POC zones.
• OBV (qualitative): Upwards inflection consistent with accumulation; no sign of distribution into the close.

6. Fibonacci road map (primary and tactical)

• Sep 18 swing high ≈ 650.36 to Oct 18 swing low ≈ 463.84: • 50%: ~557.1 (major cluster where price consolidated) • 61.8%: ~579.2 (recent breakout and retest area) • 78.6%: ~610.4 (next likely magnet/resistance). Current price 604 is approaching this. Implication: 610 area is a natural first upside target and potential pause zone. A clean break/hold above 610 opens 616 then 624.
• Nov 7 low ≈ 472.37 to Nov 22 high ≈ 556.50: • 61.8%: ~509.9 (Dec 1 low ≈510 validated this as a key higher-low). Strong structural support beneath.

7. Ichimoku (qualitative, based on provided prices)

• Price is well above the likely Tenkan and Kijun (both inferred in mid- to high-500s) and above the Cloud. Lagging span would be above price. This is a full bullish stack, typically supporting buy-the-dip rather than fade strategies.

8. Market profile / microstructure (Hourly, last 24h)

• Breakout impulse: 04:00 UTC candle launched from ~560s to ~594; subsequent consolidation 584–591; second push into 600+ with an hourly close near highs.
• VWAP (session-anchored): Post-breakout, price traded above the session VWAP; pullbacks toward 595–600 are likely defended initially.
• Liquidity: The 599–600 area flipped from resistance to support late session (role reversal). Expect first test buyers. Below that, 590 and 586 are next defense zones.

9. Candlestick and patterns

• Daily: Large bullish marubozu/near-marubozu (close at high) on strong volume. This is a trend day close—statistically favors follow-through next day unless immediately negated by a gap-and-crap (less common in crypto 24/7 flow).
• Hourly: Series of higher highs and higher lows, no material reversal print into the close.

10. Pivots (Dec 3 derived from intraday H/L/C)

• H = 604.13, L = 544.29, C = 604.13
• Pivot P ≈ 584.18
• R1 ≈ 624.07, R2 ≈ 644.02
• S1 ≈ 564.23, S2 ≈ 524.34 Implication: R1 at ~624 aligns with prior daily resistance cluster: high-confidence confluence target. If momentum persists, price can probe R1 within the next 24h.

11. Donchian and breakouts

• 20D Donchian high taken out decisively today (previous highs mid- to high-550s). Systematically bullish; breakout systems typically buy strength on the close or buy first pullback toward prior breakout area.

12. Elliott Wave (tactical framing)

• Intraday wave labeling suggests: Wave 1 (≈546→594), Wave 2 pullback (~584), Wave 3 (≈584→600), Wave 4 shallow (~596–598), Wave 5 in progress toward ~610–616, followed by an ABC pullback (likely toward 596–600) before larger trend resumes. This fits the Fib 78.6% ~610 magnet.

13. Risk, invalidation and alternative

• Base case: Buy-the-dip as long as price holds 595–600 on pullbacks. Failure back below 590 weakens momentum; below 586 opens a mean-reversion test into 580–582. A daily close back inside 590 would convert today’s breakout to a potential bull trap; probability modest given the strength of the close.
• Overextension risk: Price is near the 78.6% retrace at ~610 and below historical supply at 616/624; expect some headline/liquidity-driven spikes and quick fades intra-hour. Risk-manage around those zones.

14. 24-hour path projection (probabilities)

• Scenario A (Momentum continuation with shallow dip) ~55%: Early dip into 596–600 gets bought, push to 610–616. If orderflow is strong, extension test to 620–624 (R1) possible.
• Scenario B (Deeper retest before continuation) ~30%: Wick to 590–592, then rebuild to 600–605, late-session attempt at 612–616.
• Scenario C (Failed breakout) ~15%: Loss of 586 on hourly close leads to 580–582 test; would reassess long bias if 580 fails.

15. Synthesis and trade plan

• Confluences supporting a long: • Structural: Higher highs/higher lows; breakout of multi-week range; marubozu close • Momentum: RSI in bull range, MACD expansion • Levels: 599–600 role reversal support; Fib 78.6% 610 target; Pivot R1 ~624 • Volume: Trend-day type close with strong participation
• Execution preference: Enter on a pullback into 596–600 to align with session VWAP/POC defense and minimize slippage versus chasing into resistance at 610+. Target the 620–624 confluence; reassess extensions if tape remains heavy-bid.
• Invalidation (tactical): Sustained hourly close below 586 would put the trade thesis at risk and favor a deeper mean reversion toward 580/572.

Decision: Bias is Buy (Long). Expect a retest of 596–600 followed by a push toward 610–616, with a potential extension to ~624 over the next 24 hours. Optimal is a limit buy near 599–600, take profit near 624 (R1/previous supply).