BCH: Shallow Pullback to First Support—Setting Up a Bounce Toward the 590s Within 24 Hours

Executive summary of the tape and regime

• Context: BCH rallied sharply from the Nov 18 swing low (~476.6) to the Dec 3 spike high (~604.95), then pulled back today to ~567.9 and recovered to ~576.6 by the last print. Structure remains an uptrend on the daily timeframe with a short-term (intraday) pullback that is finding demand near first Fibonacci support.
• Next 24h bias: Mildly bullish. Expect a stabilization above 570 with a push toward 590–600, provided 566–568 holds on dips. Probabilistic view: 60% chance of 588–598 test, 30% chance of 570–585 chop, 10% chance of a deeper slip to 555–558.

Step-by-step multi-timeframe technical analysis

1. Market structure and trend

• Daily structure: Higher low established at 476.6 (Nov 18) followed by higher highs into ~605 (Dec 3). Today’s dip is a classic throwback to first support after a breakout attempt above the heavy 590–605 supply band that capped price repeatedly in September/October. The trend is up until the sequence of higher lows is broken; that would not be threatened unless price loses ~540 on a closing basis.
• Intraday structure (hourly): Session showed a controlled pullback from ~593 to ~568, then a reclaim toward ~576–577. The 19:00 hour printed a long lower-wick hammer (low ~567.8, close ~574.2), followed by steadying candles into the close—typical of sellers’ exhaustion and dip-buying interest.

2. Key support/resistance zones (confluence-driven)

• Immediate resistance: 590–596 (prior breakdown zone and intraday supply), then 600–605 (recent spike high zone; multi-month supply shelf).
• Immediate support: 574–578 (23.6% Fibonacci retrace of the 476.6 → 604.95 leg, see below; intraday pivot area), then 566–568 (session low cluster), deeper 555–558 (daily pivot/S1 and 38.2% Fib).
• Structural supports below: 540–542 (50% Fib and late-Nov congestion), 523–526 (61.8% Fib; high-volume acceptance in November).

3. Fibonacci mapping of the current impulse

• Swing measured: Nov 18 low 476.58 → Dec 3 high 604.95, range = 128.37. • 23.6%: 604.95 − 0.236×128.37 ≈ 574.65 (current price is hovering just above this—first-buy zone confirmation). • 38.2%: ≈ 555.90 (aligns with a strong daily shelf and classical S1 today—key downside line if 570 fails). • 50%: ≈ 540.76 (mid of the run; powerful must-hold for the uptrend’s integrity). • 61.8%: ≈ 525.65 (November’s acceptance zone). Interpretation: Today’s low (~567.8) respected the 23.6–38.2 corridor; shallow retracements in strong trends often bottom around 23.6–38.2 before extension attempts toward prior highs. This favors a bounce toward 590–600 over the next 24h if 566–568 holds.

4. Moving averages (approximate, directionally correct)

• 20-day EMA/SMA (est.): ~545–555 and rising; price is above both—bullish bias.
• 50-day SMA (est.): ~545–555 and starting to turn up; price above—confirms medium-term trend is resuming higher after the October washout.
• Short-term intraday EMAs (e.g., 8/21h): Price dipped below and is attempting to reclaim; the hammer and subsequent stabilization favor a reclaim of the hourly 21-EMA in the next sessions, often a trigger for a momentum pop into nearby resistance (590 area).

5. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI (est.): upper-50s to low-60s post-spike, backing off modestly today—healthy reset from overextension without breaking bullish momentum.
• Hourly RSI: rebounded from near-30s on the 19:00 hammer to neutral; this reset typically precedes a retest of the prior intraday breakdown level (588–592).
• MACD daily: Bullish cross occurred in late November with histogram positive; today shows a small contraction (pullback), not a reversal. MACD above zero suggests pullbacks are buyable until the signal line crosses back below or price loses the 38.2% retrace.

6. Volatility and ranges

• Daily ATR(14) (est.): ~30–35. Today’s high-low (~28) sits near ATR, indicating a normal pullback day after a trend day (Dec 3). Expect a 24h expected range of roughly 560–605 under unchanged conditions, with skew upward given the trend and demand wicks.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): The rally pushed/closed near the upper band on Dec 3; today’s move mean-reverted back inside and is now hovering just above the 20D basis+ band mid-upper region. This is typical “walk-the-band” behavior in sustained uptrends; the first close back inside often leads to a 1–2 day consolidation and another test higher if supports hold.

7. Volume analytics and Wyckoff lens

• Dec 3 displayed a wide-range, high-volume markup (805M)—textbook Sign of Strength (SOS). Today’s pullback volume appears lower vs the surge—constructive for a Last Point of Support (LPS) characterization around 570–578.
• Since late October, price accumulated between ~470–525 with a spring-like action on Nov 19 (down to ~471 intraday) and swift recovery. The subsequent breakout above 550s confirms transition from Accumulation to Markup. Current dip is likely a backing-up action to the breakout zone.

8. Pivot points (floor trader calc) using Dec 3 H/L/C (H 604.95, L 544.18, C 591.43)

• Pivot P: (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 580.19.
• R1 ≈ 616.20, R2 ≈ 640.96; S1 ≈ 555.43, S2 ≈ 519.42.
• Today’s low (~567.85) remained above S1 (555.4) and price is orbiting the pivot ~580. This is neutral-to-bullish intraday posture: holding above S1 while attempting to recapture P often precedes a drift toward the first resistance band (here, 590–596, below formal R1).

9. Candlestick diagnostics

• Daily: A long real body down with a lower tail from ~568 suggests demand stepped in on the first energetic dip after the breakout. Not a full hammer, but shows absorption at logical Fib support.
• Hourly: 19:00 UTC hammer off 567.8 followed by constructive closes near 574–576. This is a classic micro-reversal signature.

10. Ichimoku (directional, approximate)

• Price above Kumo (cloud) on daily; Tenkan (fast line) likely near 575–580 with Kijun (baseline) around mid-550s. Current trade back toward Tenkan from above is typical “first pullback to Tenkan” behavior. As long as price holds above Kijun (~552–558), trend continuation is favored. Chikou span likely above price—bullish confirmation.

11. Elliott Wave framing (heuristic)

• Wave 1: 476.6 → ~523.
• Wave 2: pullback into ~503–505.
• Wave 3: 505 → 605 (impulsive, volume-backed).
• Wave 4: Ongoing shallow retrace toward 575 (23.6% support). A wave-4 shallow retrace in a strong cycle often precedes a wave-5 push that marginally exceeds wave-3’s peak (600–615). Within 24h, a full new high is ambitious, but a probe into the 590s is consistent with this count.

12. Volume profile/acceptance

• High-volume node: 548–555 and 520–530 (late-Nov acceptance).
• Low-volume pocket: 590–596 (saw swift moves through this area recently), then heavy supply again 600–605. If price re-enters 589–592 with momentum, it can traverse quickly to test 598–602 before running into thicker supply.

13. Risk management zones and invalidation

• Immediate invalidation for the near-term bullish bounce idea: sustained trade below 566–568 (today’s hammer low) that accelerates into 555–558. Loss of 555 on an hourly closing basis increases risk of a deeper retrace toward 541 (50% Fib).
• As long as 566–568 defends, odds favor a rotation up to 590–596 in the next 24h.

14. Synthesis: cross-confirmation

• Trend (daily): up.
• Momentum: positive, reset but not broken.
• Pullback depth: shallow (23.6%)—bullish continuation tendency.
• Intraday reversal cues: present (hourly hammer, volume taper on sell-off).
• Confluence supports: 574–578 (Fib 23.6% + Tenkan area + intraday pivot), 555–558 (S1 + Fib 38.2%).
• Therefore: Favor buying the dip against 566–568 with targets into 590–600 over the next 24h.

Prediction for the next 24 hours

• Base case: Range 570–598 with a directional bias to the upside. Expect a probe into 588–596. A decisive bid through 596 opens 600–604, but given nearby supply, first test likely stalls in mid-590s.

Trade plan (tactical)

• Position: Long (buy the dip/continuation play).
• Optimal entry: 574.5–575.0 zone (just above 23.6% Fib and intraday support). If no dip, an alternative momentum entry on reclaim >582 with similar targets is viable but offers a worse R:R.
• Target: 595–596 initial, with extension to 600–602 if momentum and tape breadth improve.
• Invalidation (not required but prudent): A hard hourly close below 566 suggests stepping aside; deeper protection for swing traders would be below 555.

Why not short here?

• Shorting into an uptrend after a shallow, low-volume pullback and an intraday hammer is a low-odds play. Overhead supply exists (600–605), but the tape typically gives a better short entry at or after a failed test of those highs, not at first support.