BCH coiled above the cloud: Buy the 563 pivot for a run to 588

Overview and timeframes considered:

• Daily trend (last ~90 days): After the sharp October washout to ~470, BCH established a broad 480–605 range. Early December broke higher to ~605, followed by a corrective leg to 520–535 (Dec 15). Since then, price has reclaimed key moving averages and is advancing in higher-high/higher-low structure. Current price 569.34 sits above the short- and medium-term averages, with momentum rebuilding.
• Intraday (today): Strong impulsive leg from ~538 to ~577 on expanding volume around 13:00–14:00 UTC, followed by constructive consolidation between 558 and 571. Price closed the hour near 569 with buyers defending the 562–565 pivot area.

Trend and market structure:

• Structure: Higher low set at 520.35 (Dec 15), subsequent HL around 546–548 (Dec 16–17), and an intraday HL today above 558 after the push. Immediate resistance cluster 572–577 has been probed; clearing and holding 572–573 should open 586–590.
• Channels: From the Dec 15 low, price is riding the upper half of a rising intraday regression channel; pullbacks to 562–565 align with mid-channel support.

Moving averages (approximations from the provided closes):

• 20D SMA ≈ 563.7 (calculated). Price > 20D by ~5.7, indicating short-term bullish control.
• 50D SMA (estimate) ≈ 545–550. Price > 50D, and 20D > 50D, a positive alignment.
• Hourly context: Price reclaimed and held above fast intraday EMAs post-breakout; dips toward 562–565 are being bought.

Momentum oscillators:

• RSI(14D) ≈ 53 (derived from the last 14 closes). Neutral-bullish; ample room before overbought. Supports continuation higher if resistance breaks.
• Stochastic (qualitative): Rising toward, but not stuck in, overbought territory; favors trend continuation with possible shallow pullbacks.
• MACD (daily, qualitative): Histogram has turned up since the Dec 15 low; MACD line is curling toward/above the signal near the zero line—typical for an early up-leg after a corrective low.

Volatility and ranges:

• ATR(14D) (est.) ≈ 28–32. A 24h move of ~5% is typical in current conditions; implies a plausible range between 558 and 590 for the next session.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) using the 20D SMA: Middle band ~563.7. Estimated upper band ~612 and lower ~516 (based on recent dispersion). Price just cleared the mid-band and is nowhere near the upper band yet—room to expand upward.

Volume and order flow:

• Intraday volume spike on the 538 → 570 breakout indicates initiative buying. Follow-through consolidations have smaller but supportive volumes—a classic bull flag signature.
• OBV (qualitative) is trending higher from Dec 15, consistent with accumulation into strength.
• Volume profile (recent weeks): High-volume nodes around 546 and 558–560 (acceptance/pivots). Low-volume pocket 565–569 was traversed quickly; acceptance is forming in the high 560s/low 570s, which often precedes a push into the next supply zone (586–590, then 598–605).

Ichimoku (daily approximations from recent highs/lows):

• Tenkan ≈ 558.5; Kijun ≈ 557.5. Price at 569 > Tenkan and > Kijun.
• Cloud: Span A ~559, Span B ~527. Price above the cloud; bullish regime with supportive base around 557–559.

Fibonacci mapping (Dec swing):

• Swing: High 604.95 (Dec 3) to low 520.35 (Dec 15), range 84.6.
• Key levels from the low: 38.2% = 552.7 (reclaimed), 50% = 562.7 (now support), 61.8% = 572.6 (current lid), 78.6% ≈ 586.9 (next objective). A sustained close >572.6 favors a measured move toward ~587–590, then the prior supply 598–605.

Classical patterns:

• Inverted head-and-shoulders (daily, loose): Left shoulder ~558–560 (Dec 11), head 520–535 (Dec 15), right shoulder 546–558 (Dec 16–17). Neckline ~572. A clean break/close over 572–573 projects ~30 points (to ~600–603), aligning with the December high supply.
• Intraday bull flag: Post-breakout consolidation between ~559–571 with declining intraday volume; a push through 572–577 would confirm continuation toward 586–590.

Pivot points (derived from today’s H/L/C: 577.255 / 529.042 / 569.342):

• Pivot P ≈ 558.55
• R1 ≈ 588.05
• S1 ≈ 539.84
• R2 ≈ 606.76 These reinforce the trade map: Support near 558–559; upside magnet near 588 (confluent with 78.6% Fib), and extension risk to ~607 if momentum expands.

Additional toolset cross-checks:

• ADX(14D) (qualitative): Rising from subdued levels; +DI likely crossing above –DI, consistent with a nascent trend advance rather than exhaustion.
• Parabolic SAR (daily) likely flipped under price after the Dec 15 pivot—bullish bias for trailing stops below mid-550s.
• Anchored VWAP from the Dec 15 low likely sits around 558–560; price trading above suggests long-side control.
• DeMark/Countdown (qualitative): No completed exhaustive sell count on daily; intraday counts reset after the strong impulse—room for continuation.

Risk and invalidation:

• Bullish thesis holds while price remains above 558–560 (Fib 50%/Pivot/Ichimoku base). A loss of 558 that accelerates below 552–553 would threaten a deeper mean reversion to 546–548 (right-shoulder base) and potentially 539–540 (S1).

24-hour scenarios (probabilistic):

• Bullish (≈60%): Maintain 562–565 on dips, break/hold above 572.6, run to 586–590 (R1/78.6% Fib). Stretch target if momentum accelerates: 598–605 (prior supply, near R2 zone if expanded volatility).
• Neutral consolidation (≈25%): Chop 558–575, multiple tests of 572 but no strong close above; sets up a higher-quality breakout attempt next session.
• Bearish (≈15%): Failure at 572 with a decisive break below 558; slide to 552–553 and potentially 546–548 before dip buyers return. This path would delay, not necessarily invalidate, the larger bullish structure unless 535 breaks.

Trade plan, execution, and risk management:

• Bias: Buy dips in the 562–565 pivot zone or buy a confirmed break/hold above 573. For a single optimal level considering current price, the statistically favorable pullback entry is just above the 20D SMA and near the pivot cluster.
• Optimal entry (limit): 563.9 (confluence of 20D SMA ~563.7, Fib 50% ~562.7, and intraday value area). Expect a retest during consolidation before a 61.8% breakout attempt.
• Take profit: 588.0 (confluence of daily R1 ≈ 588.05 and Fib 78.6% ≈ 586.9). Leave room for a slight overshoot.
• Suggested protective stop (not required but prudent): 552.9 (below confluence shelf 558–560 and beneath the intraday value edge), yielding an approximate R:R of ~2.2:1 to the 588 target.

Why this works now:

• Confluence: 20D SMA reclaim, Ichimoku above cloud, pivot support at ~558.5, Fibonacci structure pointing to 586–590, and fresh impulse with healthy consolidation.
• Momentum and volume: Breakout was bought with volume; consolidation is controlled. Oscillators are supportive without being overbought.

Expected next 24h path:

• Early: Potential dip to 562–565 (buy zone), hold above 558–560.
• Mid: Reattempt 572–577; on break/hold above 572.6, momentum push into 586–590.
• Late: If momentum persists, watch 595–600 for stalls; otherwise, fade and re-accumulate above 568–572.

Bottom line: The weight of evidence favors a long on a controlled dip into the 563–565 area, targeting 588 in the next session, with invalidation below ~553.