BCH Ascending Triangle at the Pivot: Buy the Dip, Target R1

Executive summary

• Instrument: Bitcoin Cash (BCH)
• Current price: 617.03
• Bias (next 24h): Moderately bullish within a consolidating uptrend; expect a buy-the-dip toward the daily pivot with a retest of 630–634. A breakout above 633–634 opens 644–646.
• Plan: Buy a pullback at the daily pivot confluence (≈613.49) and target the first resistance band around 633–634.

1. Price action and structure

• Daily trend: Since the 12/23–12/24 trough (572.14/568.09), BCH has posted a sequence of higher lows: 566.46 (12/25), 587.35 (12/26), 593.28 (12/27), 612.88 (12/28). Highs are also rising into a horizontal ceiling at 630–633 (12/19 high 630.13; 12/28 high 632.54). This is an ascending triangle setup: rising demand lifts lows while supply caps the 630–633 range.
• Today’s session (12/28): Open 622.97, high 632.54, low 612.88, close 617.03. Price pushed into resistance (≈R1 zone), then sold back into the daily pivot region and stabilized slightly above it into the close.
• Intraday (hourly, last 24h): • Consolidation 619–622 through the Asia/EU session, breakout to 629–632 around 14:00–16:00, swift selloff at 18:00 back to 618–623, and drift to 617–620. Clear range is 617 (support) vs 632 (resistance), with the midpoint 624–625 and the day pivot ~613.5 below.
• Market structure take: Uptrend on daily, range on intraday. Higher-lows + flat resistance is constructive; sellers defended 632–633 on first test, typical before a subsequent attempt.

2. Moving averages (trend metrics)

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~580.36 (computed from last 20 closes). Current price 617 is well above, confirming short-term uptrend.
• 50-day SMA (approx): mid- to high-560s given the Oct–Nov distribution and Dec rally. Price above the 50-SMA supports a medium-term bullish bias.
• EMAs stack (approx): • 8-EMA ≈ 600–606; 21-EMA ≈ 586–592 (given recent closes). Price is above both, and 8-EMA > 21-EMA (bullish alignment).
• Takeaway: Trend-following signals favor longs; pullbacks toward rising short MAs are opportunities.

3. Momentum

• Daily RSI(14) (explicit calc): ≈ 62.8. Details: avg gain ≈ 10.26, avg loss ≈ 6.08, RS ≈ 1.69 → RSI ≈ 62.8. This is bullish but not overbought; ample room for a push toward/through resistance without a momentum cap.
• Hourly RSI: Likely reset from overbought on the 14:00–16:00 surge to neutral on the 18:00 flush; this combination (daily strong, hourly reset) favors another attempt higher if support holds.

4. MACD

• Daily MACD: Positive and above signal since the mid-December turn; histogram has likely contracted after today’s rejection at 632, consistent with consolidation but not with a trend reversal. A renewed expansion on another run at 633 would confirm upside continuation.

5. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• 20-day Bollinger Band basis ≈ 580.36. Estimated 20-day standard deviation ≈ 25 (derived from recent range behavior). • Upper band ≈ 630.36, lower band ≈ 530.36.
• Price tapped/pierced the upper band intraday (high 632.54), then reverted toward the mean. Typical sequence: first touch rejects, followed by either a second push that breaks through or a mean-reversion drift. Given trend and RSI, odds favor a second push attempt.
• ATR(14) (daily, approx): ~26–30. Today’s true range ≈ 19.67; yesterday ≈ 30.93; volatility is elevated but not extreme. A 20-point target within 24h is realistic.

6. Volume/participation and OBV

• Volume expanded into up-moves: 12/19 surge (630 high) and 12/27 rally to 623 showed above-average participation relative to mid-Dec lull. Today’s 18:00 (hourly) sell volume spike looks like a single rejection rather than persistent distribution; subsequent hours held above 617 with lighter volume, suggesting supply absorption rather than trend change.
• OBV (qualitative): Rising since 12/23, consistent with accumulation on dips.

7. Ichimoku (daily, approximations)

• Tenkan (9-period mid): (highest high 632.54 + lowest low 571.38)/2 ≈ 601.96.
• Kijun (26-period mid): Using recent 26-period extremes (~632.54 high, ~520.35 low) midpoint ≈ 576.45.
• Price 617 > Tenkan 602 > Kijun 576; above cloud (inferred). Bullish alignment with supportive Tenkan/Kijun spread.

8. Fibonacci mapping (confluences)

• 12/15 low (520.35) → 12/19 high (630.13): • 38.2% retrace ≈ 588.20; 50% ≈ 575.24; 61.8% ≈ 562.45. The pullback respected 589–575 area (12/20–12/24), then turned up. Structure is classic impulse (520→630), corrective ABC into 568–589, resumption toward prior high.
• 12/23 low (571.38) → 12/27 high (624.21): After the 12/27 high, today’s dip held well above a 38.2% retrace and hovered near the daily pivot → bullish.
• Extension targets on a clean break above 632–633: 1.272–1.618 of the 571→624 swing project ≈ 640–649, aligning with R2 (≈644.42). Good confluence for upside objective if breakout holds.

9. Pivots and levels (hard numbers)

• Using 12/27 (H 624.21, L 593.28, C 622.97): • Pivot (P) = (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 613.49. • R1 = 2P − L ≈ 633.70. • S1 = 2P − H ≈ 602.76. • R2 = P + (H − L) ≈ 644.42.
• Today respected the map: • Rejection near R1 (high 632.54 ≈ R1), fade to just above P (low 612.88 ≈ P), close above P (617.03). This keeps a balanced-to-bullish posture into the next session: above P, expect re-tests of R1; conversion of R1 opens R2.

10. VWAP and intraday microstructure

• Session VWAP (est.) ≈ 621–622 given time spent 619–622 and the late-day dip. Current price 617 is modestly below VWAP; tactically, we prefer either buying the dip at confluence support (P≈613.5) or buying a reclaim of VWAP with momentum. The pivot dip offers a better reward/risk to R1.

11. Support/resistance zones (confluence)

• Immediate support: 612.9–614.0 (today’s low 612.88 + daily pivot 613.49). Next supports: 603 (S1 band) and 598–600 (prior micro-structure and round number). Stronger base 589–593.
• Resistance: 630–633 (ceiling and R1), then 644–646 (R2 + fib extension confluence). If 633 breaks on volume and holds, expect a measured move toward 644–646 within the 24h window.

12. Pattern diagnostics

• Ascending triangle: Rising swing lows into flat resistance 630–633; volume typically decreases into the apex and expands on breakout. We saw expansion on the approach and rejection; one more test is statistically favored in the next session. Breakouts from ascending triangles in uptrends have above-average follow-through.
• Candles: Today’s upper wick at 632.5 shows supply at R1; the body still closed above the pivot, mitigating bearish implications.

13. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (≈55–60%): Early dip to 613–615 tests the pivot, buyers step in, price reclaims 620–622 (VWAP area), then retests 630–633. A marginal higher high (633–635) is probable; if momentum is decent, spike to 638–644 possible.
• Bull breakout (≈25–30%): Minimal dip; straight reclaim of VWAP, then impulsive break of 633 with expanding volume; continuation toward 644–646 (R2/fib ext.).
• Bear fade (≈15–20%): Loss of pivot 613.5 with acceptance below 612; test of 606–603 (S1). Deep fade could probe 598–600. Given daily uptrend and RSI, odds lower unless a broader market risk-off hits.

14. Risk management and trade design

• Entry: Buy limit near the pivot confluence at 613.49 to improve reward/risk.
• Target: First take-profit at R1 ≈ 633.70 (prior rejection zone). If breakout momentum is strong on approach, discretionary runners could aim 644.4 (R2). For the single specified close price, we use 633.70 to reflect the base-case.
• Implied R:R with a prudent stop (not part of output, but for context): Stop below S1/round number and below today’s low to avoid noise—e.g., 601.9–602.8. Risk ≈ 10.7–11.6 points; reward to 633.7 ≈ 20.2 points → R:R ≈ 1.7–1.9.
• Position sizing: Calibrate to daily ATR (~26–30). A 10–12 point stop is within 0.35–0.45 ATR, reasonable for a day swing.

15. Synthesis across tools

• Trend tools (SMA/EMA/Ichimoku) = bullish.
• Momentum (RSI/MACD) = positive, not overbought; room to run.
• Volatility (BB/ATR) = price pulled back from the upper band to near the mean; supports another attempt higher within normal volatility bands.
• Levels (Pivots/Fibs) = clean confluence at 613–614 for entry; R1 aligns with the supply shelf at 633; R2/fib ext. aligns 644–646 for stretch target.
• Microstructure (VWAP/hourly) = below VWAP into the close suggests a possible early dip; fits the buy-the-dip plan.

Conclusion

• Direction: Buy (Long). The daily uptrend, ascending-triangle structure, supportive momentum, and pivot confluence favor a tactical long on a pullback with a primary target at the prior ceiling/R1. A secondary breakout path could extend to mid-640s, but the base-case target is R1 for high hit-probability within 24h.

Projected path (24h)

• Expected range: 612–635 base case; breakout tail risk up to 644–646; downside tail risk to 603 if pivot fails.
• Timing: Early session probe of 613–615, reclaim of 621–622, retest 630–633 by later session.