BCH poised for a golden-pocket rebound: targeting a 595 → 612 snapback within 24 hours

Timeframe and context

• Instrument: Bitcoin Cash (BCH) | Currency: USD
• Current price: 595.63
• Data windows: Daily OHLCV (Oct 1 – Dec 29) and Hourly (Dec 28 22:00 – Dec 29 22:21)
• Objective: 24-hour outlook, technical-only, define optimal open and close.

1. Trend structure and moving averages

• Market structure (daily): Since the Dec 15 swing low (535.72), BCH has printed higher highs/lows, peaking Dec 28 at 632.63. Pullback today remains above key prior pivot cluster (589–593), so the uptrend is intact on daily timeframe.
• 20-day SMA ≈ 581.1 (computed from last 20 closes). Price > 20SMA, bullish bias, with room to mean-revert without breaking trend.
• 50-day SMA (est.) ≈ mid-550s/560s based on Oct–Dec path; price well above, reinforcing the broader uptrend.
• Conclusion: Bullish higher timeframe trend; short-term pullback within trend.

2. Momentum (RSI, MACD, Stochastics)

• Daily RSI(14) ≈ 61.4 (derived), mildly bullish, not overbought. Post-peak momentum has cooled; room for a bounce without immediate overbought risk.
• Hourly RSI: After intraday selloff from ~624 to ~595, hourly RSI likely in the 35–45 zone (oversold-to-neutral); suggests bounce potential.
• MACD (daily): Positive but histogram likely contracting after a double-top retest near 630, signaling waning upside momentum but not outright reversal.
• Stochastics: Daily likely crossing down from high zone (pullback mode). Hourly near oversold, supportive for a relief rally.

3. Volatility and range (ATR, Bollinger Bands)

• Recent daily true ranges: 25–35 typical, with spikes higher (Dec 19). Today’s range ~31.5 (624.6–593.1). Expect next 24h ATR ≈ 28–35.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily: Midline ≈ 20SMA ~581. Upper band recently tagged near 630; current price in the upper-mid zone after a pullback. No extreme band ride; room for mean reversion bounce.

4. Ichimoku (daily)

• Tenkan-sen (9): ≈ (HH + LL)/2 over last 9 sessions = (632.63 + 563.30)/2 ≈ 597.97. Price (~595.6) just below Tenkan (short-term resistance).
• Kijun-sen (26): ≈ (HH + LL)/2 over last 26 ≈ (632.63 + ~509.99)/2 ≈ 571.31; price well above Kijun (trend support).
• Cloud: Span A ~584.6; price above cloud. Bias: bullish trend; short-term pullback below Tenkan suggests mean-revert bounce attempt toward Tenkan first.

5. Fibonacci confluence

• Swing A (Dec 23 low 571.38 → Dec 28 high 632.63):
  • 61.8% retrace = 632.63 − 0.618×61.25 ≈ 594.78
• Swing B (Dec 15 low 535.72 → Dec 28 high 632.63):
  • 38.2% retrace = 632.63 − 0.382×96.91 ≈ 595.60
• Current price 595.63 sits directly on the 38.2% of the larger swing and within a few ticks of the 61.8% of the shorter swing. This “golden pocket” confluence (594.8–595.6) is a high-probability reaction zone.

6. Price action and patterns

• Daily candles: Dec 27 strong green close, Dec 28 small indecision near the highs, Dec 29 broad red down-day → classic evening star sequence near 630. That typically leads to a 1–3 day pullback. Today’s pullback has reached a fib confluence and prior horizontal support. The evening star’s immediate target (first leg) often aligns with Tenkan/50% retrace/pivot levels — we are already there.
• Structure: No lower low vs. Dec 25–26 area (lows ~566–593 zone with multiple tests). Today’s intraday low 593.11 held above the critical 589–590 shelf.
• Double-top context: Dec 19 high ~630 and Dec 28 high ~632 create a potential double-top zone; neckline ~589–590. As long as 589 holds, pattern remains untriggered.

7. Volume, order flow, and profile

• Hourly: Largest sell volume hit around 02:00/09:00 UTC on breaks from 624→606. Subsequent hours saw lower volume as price based 600→596, showing seller exhaustion signals.
• Daily OBV: Higher since mid-Dec; today likely a pullback day rather than distribution. Volume spikes at highs and on the morning dump, then fizzling, often precede a counter-move bounce.
• Volume profile (visual inference): Thick node 590–600 from extensive trading this month. Price is testing the top of that HVN, which tends to act as support and a springboard to the next node around 606–612.

8. Pivot levels (using today’s H/L/C: 624.63/593.11/595.63)

• PP ≈ (H+L+C)/3 = 604.46
• R1 ≈ 615.80; R2 ≈ 635.98
• S1 ≈ 584.29; S2 ≈ 572.94
• Implication: Current price < PP; mean reversion bounce toward PP (604.5) and possibly R1 (615.8) is plausible within next 24h if 589–595 floor holds. S1/S2 line up with 20SMA and prior swing supports.

9. Elliott wave framing (tactical)

• Advance from Dec 15 to Dec 28 likely an impulsive leg. Today’s pullback is consistent with a wave-4-style retrace into the 38.2–61.8 cluster. That favors a rebound toward 606–612 (then potentially 620+) before any deeper correction tests 584/575.

10. DMI/ADX and trend health

• +DI > −DI on daily but narrowing; ADX rising modestly. A close under 589 would allow −DI crossover risks. Above 589, the bullish trend health remains acceptable.

11. Multi-timeframe synthesis (24h outlook)

• Bullish factors: Fib confluence at 594–596; HVN support 590–600; price above Kijun/cloud; daily RSI ~61 (room to run); pivot map favors reversion to PP/R1. Hourly momentum oversold, sellers tiring.
• Bearish/risks: Evening star at 630 and intraday lower highs; Tenkan (~598) is immediate resistance; loss of 589 opens 584→573 quickly (S1/S2). MACD momentum has faded short-term.

Scenario probabilities (next 24h)

• Base case bounce (≈60%): Hold 594–596, reclaim 598–600, push to 604.5 (PP) then 610–616 (R1 cluster/Tenkan zone). Expected range: 593–616.
• Bear case extension (≈30%): Lose 589 decisively → test 584 (S1), possible flush to 581 (20SMA) or 573 (S2). Expected range: 585–600 if weak.
• Low-prob spike (≈10%): V-shape reclaim over 606 early and squeeze toward 620–624 (prior supply) if liquidity is thin.

Trade plan (short-term swing, 24–48h horizon)

• Bias: Buy the dip at the golden-pocket confluence with tight invalidation below 589. Confirm on reclaim of 598–600 if seeking more conservative entry.
• Entry (aggressive limit): 595.0 (within the 594.8–595.6 confluence and close to current print).
• Initial target: 611.8 (between daily PP and R1; inside 610–616 supply window), capturing the first bounce leg.
• Suggested stop (risk control, not part of requested fields): 588.8 (below the 589 neckline/shelf). Risk ≈ 6.2; Reward ≈ 16.8; R:R ≈ 2.7:1.
• Add-on/scale plan: Consider partial add near 593.8 if tagged; trim 1/2 at 604.5 (PP) if momentum stalls; let remainder ride to 611.8.

Invalidation and what changes my mind

• A 4h close below 589 or a daily close below 584 would negate the bounce setup and favor tests of 581/575/573. In that case, switch bias to sell rallies into 598–604 until reclaimed.

Bottom line

• The confluence of Fibonacci (38.2%/61.8%), Ichimoku Tenkan proximity, HVN support at 590–600, and pivot structure favor a near-term bounce from 594–596 toward 604.5 then 610–616 within 24 hours. Risk is cleanly defined below 589. Therefore, Buy (long) with a limit near 595 and take profit around 611.8.

Note: This is a technical assessment, not financial advice. Use position sizing and a stop consistent with your risk tolerance.