BNB poised for a descending-triangle test: sell the pop into 1100–1108, target the 1040s

BNB (BNB) multi-timeframe technical walkthrough and 24-hour trading plan

Summary view

• Regime: Short-term downtrend inside a larger, still-elevated uptrend from September. Price is compressing within a descending triangle (lower highs) against a horizontal support shelf around 1050–1070. Current price sits near the 10/30 classic pivot (≈1084), beneath short/mid moving averages but above the bigger base around 1000–1045.
• Bias next 24h: Bearish-to-sideways. Base case is a retest of 1070/1050 with risk of a liquidity sweep toward 1045–1035 if 1078/1070 gives way. Upside excursions likely capped into 1105–1118 unless a squeeze develops.
• Trade idea: Favor short on strength into 1100–1108 (sell limit), targeting the S1 pivot cluster around 1045–1052 over 24h.

Price action and market structure

• Daily trend (Aug → Oct): Strong uptrend through early Oct (peak 1336–1370), then a sequence of lower highs from 10/13 (1370) → 10/14 (1316 intraday) → 10/27 (1180) → 10/28–29 (≈1148–1121) → 10/31 intraday (1104). Lows stepped down toward 1072 (10/17), 1050 (10/30). This forms a descending triangle: flat support 1050–1070 and falling resistance line connecting 1180 → 1142 → 1128 → 1104.
• Intra-day (hourly 10/30–10/31): Tight consolidation 1060–1104. Clear rejection wicks near 1103–1104 (08:00–09:00), followed by stabilization near 1080–1090. Micro-structure suggests a bear flag or a balance area under resistance.

Support and resistance map

• Nearby resistance: 1103–1108 (intraday supply and rejection zone), then 1118 (R1 from 10/30 pivots), 1128–1142 (breakdown shelf), 1180 (10/27 lower high).
• Nearby support: 1078/1070 (intra-day pivot and balance lows), 1054–1050 (10/21 and 10/30 swing lows), 1045–1046 (S1 from 10/30 pivots), 1030–1010 (S2/previous breakout cluster), 1008–1000 (psychological/past pivot).

Moving averages (approximations from recent closes)

• 5-day SMA ≈ 1102: Price (1083) below → immediate momentum weak.
• 10-day SMA ≈ 1105–1110: Price below → short-term trend bearish.
• 20-day SMA ≈ 1135–1145: Price below → medium-term pressure remains downward.
• 50-day SMA ≈ 1040–1055: Price above, but closing in → principal support shelf aligns with the 1050 base. A decisive break below 1050 threatens a deeper mean reversion to the 1008–1010 zone. Interpretation: Price under 5/10/20 SMAs but still above 50SMA = corrective down leg within a broader up-cycle, with risk of a test of the 50SMA band.

Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) (qualitative): Drifting in the mid-40s to low-50s after lower highs—neither oversold nor strong; leaves room for a push lower before buyers get tactical.
• Hourly RSI(14): Mean-reverting around 45–55 with rejections on rallies; confirms range-bound pressure beneath resistance.
• MACD (daily, qualitative): MACD line under signal with negative histogram since mid-Oct; momentum remains to the downside.
• Stochastics: Lower-highs behavior; any hourly stochastic resets at resistance have been fadeable.

Volatility and ranges

• Daily ATR(14) (est.): ~70–90 pts. Expectation for next 24h: a 60–100 point envelope from the pivot (1084). This brackets S1 (~1045) and R1 (~1118) well.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2, qualitative): Middle band near the 20-SMA (~1135–1145). Lower band likely low- to mid-1000s; price trades in the lower half of the envelope, consistent with bearish pressure but not capitulative.

Volume and participation

• Distribution signature: Heavier volume on down days (10/10, 10/13, 10/17), with lighter-volume bounces, signaling supply dominance on rallies.
• Recent sessions show selling into strength near 1100–1140, evidenced by intraday rejection wicks and inability to hold gains.
• OBV (qualitative): Topping mid-Oct and leaking since; aligns with distributive tone.

Pivot levels (derived from 10/30 H/L/C: 1123.7/1050.1/1078.6)

• Pivot P ≈ 1084.15 (current price ~1083 ≈ at pivot)
• R1 ≈ 1118.17; R2 ≈ 1157.72
• S1 ≈ 1044.60; S2 ≈ 1010.58 Interpretation: Trading beneath P tilts toward S1. Failed pushes above P commonly revert lower in a weak tape.

Fibonacci studies

1. Swing 10/13 high 1370 → 10/17 low 1072

• 38.2%: ~1185 (10/27 lower high ≈1180 tagged and failed)
• 61.8%: ~1258 (failed earlier Oct attempts) Interpretation: Classic A-B-C correction with B top near 0.382 retrace; points to continuation lower into C leg targeting the prior low zone or a 1.0 extension from B.

2. Larger leg Sept breakout 1043 → Oct 13 high 1370

• 61.8% retrace ≈ 1167 (broken), 78.6% ≈ 1112 (broken). A breach below 1050 opens risk of a full roundtrip toward 1043/1008.

Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price below Tenkan and Kijun; cloud likely still below price but Kijun/Span momentum flat-to-down. This configuration supports selling rallies into Tenkan/Kijun (≈1110–1140) with a target at the flat Kijun/structural support area (~1050).

VWAP/anchored context (qualitative)

• Session VWAPs on 10/31 hover near 1090–1095 early, with price failing to sustain above and slipping back—sign of intraday supply. Anchored VWAP from the 10/10 shock likely still well below the 1200s, reinforcing that current rallies are sold.

Regression channel and structure

• A descending regression channel since 10/27 captures lower highs. Upper channel boundary ≈ 1105–1115 intraday; lower boundary ≈ 1060–1050. Mean reversion to the lower channel boundary is probable if 1080 gives way.

Candlestick read

• 10/30: Wide-range bar closing in the lower half (H=1123.7, L=1050.1, C=1078.6) → supply present on strength.
• 10/31 intraday: Multiple small-bodied candles near 1080–1090 under a clear rejection at 1103–1104 → balance under resistance.

Pattern diagnostics

• Descending triangle: Lower highs pressed into 1050–1070 shelf. Textbook probabilities slightly favor breakdown if tested repeatedly. A clean hourly close below 1068–1070 invites 1054/1050 and potentially a liquidity sweep to 1046/1035.
• Bear flag risk: Post-10/30 bounce is muted; structure looks like a flag under 1105.

Scenarios for the next 24 hours (probabilistic)

• Base case (≈55%): Rejection near 1100–1108, fade into 1080, break 1070 to tag 1054–1046, with intraday probes to 1038–1032 possible on momentum.
• Alternative squeeze (≈30%): Early reclaim of 1104–1108 and a push toward R1 ≈ 1118; stall 1118–1125 and mean-revert back toward pivot (1084). Break and hold above 1128 would be the first real sign of trend repair.
• Low-probability flush (≈15%): Quick loss of 1050 leads to a momentum drive toward 1011–1008 (S2/psych). Likely needs external catalyst/market-wide risk-off.

Risk/reward framing for a short

• Short into 1100–1108 offers asymmetric risk: clear invalidation above 1118–1125 and proximity to overhead supply. Targeting 1046 (S1 cluster/structural) yields a 50–60 point reward for ~15–25 points of risk if stop is placed above 1118–1122.
• If price never bounces: a secondary plan is a momentum entry on a break ≤1076/1070 with the same targets, albeit with slightly worse R:R.

Why not long here?

• No bullish divergence confirmed across timeframes; price remains beneath 5/10/20 SMAs and below intraday supply. The repeated failures at 1103–1108 suggest sellers defend every uptick. Longs are more attractive either near 1010–1035 in a capitulation or above 1128 with acceptance, flipping the local structure.

Trade plan and levels

• Decision: Sell (Short Position)
• Entry (primary): Sell limit 1104.0 (within the 1100–1108 supply and just under the recent rejection pivot)
• Take Profit: 1046.0 (S1/pocket just above the 1045 classical pivot and ahead of the 1050 liquidity shelf)
• Optional risk control (not required but prudent): Stop 1119.0–1122.0 (above R1/structure) to preserve a favorable R:R ≈ 1:2.5–1:3.

What invalidates the idea in the next 24h?

• Sustained acceptance above 1118–1125 (hourly closes and hold) with rising momentum/volume—this would negate the descending triangle bias and point toward 1142–1158.

Bottom line

• The confluence of descending highs, resistance at 1103–1108, sub-pivot trade near 1084, and alignment of S1 around 1045 favor a tactical short-on-strength approach for the next 24 hours. Base case path seeks 1054–1046; stretch targets down to 1032–1011 if momentum accelerates. Bulls need to reclaim 1118–1128 to flip the script.