BNB Price Analysis Powered by AI

BNB: Countertrend Bounce Off S1 — Tactical Long Into 980–990 Resistance

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Markets are risky; use position sizing and stops.

Step-by-step multi-timeframe read

Trend: From mid-Oct peak (~1370 on 10/13) BNB has made lower highs and lower lows, shifting into a medium-term downtrend. The sharp drop on 11/03 (close ~992, low ~976) broke the 1000–1030 support shelf and accelerated downside momentum.
Bounce attempt: Today (11/05) price is rebounding from an intraday low near 904 to the 950s, but still well below key moving averages. This looks like a short-term mean-reversion bounce within a broader corrective structure.
Key daily levels from closes and swings: • Resistance: 993–1008 (former support/LVN), 1026–1034, 1090–1105 (20D SMA/cluster), 1127–1145 (heavy supply zone). • Support: 950–952 (pivot S1 vicinity and session balance), 933–937 (hourly shelf), 907–910 (pivot S2), 875–880, 840s (extreme in case of shock).

Liquidity sweep and reversal: 01:00 UTC bar flushed to 904 then quickly reclaimed 920s–940s. Subsequent sequence shows higher lows (904 → ~923 → 943–946) and higher highs into 966, signalling a short-term bullish structure.
Current state: Price has consolidated between ~953 and ~966 for several hours with diminishing ranges, suggesting energy build for a directional move. The market is hovering around an estimated intraday VWAP zone in the low-to-mid 950s, indicating balance.

Daily: 20D SMA ≈ 1089 (est). Price at ~954 is materially below the 20D and likely below the 50D, confirming medium-term bearish bias. Any bounce faces overhead supply into 990–1030 first.
Hourly: Price is generally above short MAs after the morning rebound; pullbacks towards 946–951 have been bought, implying that zone is acting as dynamic support on the 1H.

Daily RSI (14) estimate: low-to-mid 30s after the 11/03 break, recovering slightly today—indicative of bearish but nearing mean-reversion territory.
Hourly RSI (14): mid-50s, consistent with a modest bullish intraday trend without overbought conditions; room remains to push into 60–65 if resistance gives.
MACD: Daily histogram negative but flattening; hourly MACD slightly positive, consistent with a corrective upswing.

Daily ATR (14) estimate: ~80–100. Expect 24h swing potential ≈ ±4–8% from the mean. From the mid-950s, an ATR push could plausibly reach 990–1000 on the upside or 910–930 on the downside in a single session.
Hourly ranges have compressed since the 02:00–04:00 UTC surge (toward 966). Band compression often precedes expansion.

Daily Bollinger (20,2): Mid-band ≈ 1089; lower band likely around the high 980s to ~1000. Price pierced/lived below the lower band this week, which often precedes a mean-reversion bounce toward the mid/upper band but typically first tests the lower-band area again. Current rebound fits a reversion attempt toward 980–1000.
Hourly Bollinger: Bands tightened around 953–966; price oscillating near the upper-middle area—neutral to constructive intraday.
Donchian (20D): Upper ~1370, lower ~976; price is near the lower boundary, supporting a bounce-biased mean-reversion setup (with caution).

Daily: Price below the cloud; Tenkan < Kijun; bearish regime. Any bounce is countertrend and likely capped near 1000–1050 unless momentum improves.
Hourly: Price likely above conversion and near/above baseline after the bounce; cloud thin and possibly supportive for a further push into 960s–980s if it holds.

Volume: 11/03 showed strong sell volume (capitulation-like). Today’s session saw elevated prints during the 02:00–04:00 UTC rebound, then lighter consolidation—typical of a corrective drift higher.
OBV/CMF tone: Short-term turn higher after a heavy downday; medium-term OBV remains down. This supports the idea of a bounce with limited follow-through unless buyers sustain pressure above 980–1000.
Volume profile (recent weeks): High-volume nodes (HVNs) at ~1100–1140; an LVN/void around 990–1000. Reclaiming 990 often enables a swift test of ~1008–1030; failing to retake 990 tends to keep price trapped below 970.

Classic P = 1018.31, R1 = 1060.82, S1 = 950.03, R2 = 1129.11, S2 = 907.51.
Price oscillated around S1 today (confluence with 949–952 intraday shelf). Holding above S1 tilts risk toward a push to 966–980; losing S1 exposes 933 then S2 ~907.

Major swing: 10/13 high 1370.5 → 11/03 low 975.8 (range ≈ 394.7). • 23.6%: ~1069; 38.2%: ~1126.8; 50%: ~1173.2; 61.8%: ~1219.5.
Near-term reality: Price is still far below the 23.6% retrace, underscoring that any bounce is early-stage and fragile. In the very short run, micro-Fibs on the 11/05 upswing place 946–951 as a 38.2–50% pullback zone—good for dip-buys intraday.

Possible falling channel/wedge since mid-Oct with a first impulsive bounce from 11/03. Hourly shows a rising mini-channel from 904 to 966, now consolidating—a constructive continuation setup if 949–952 holds.
Candle cues: Strong 02:00–03:00 UTC green thrust, subsequent small-bodied candles—bullish pause. A breakout above 966 opens 980–993 quickly.

Base case (55%): Range-to-up day. Hold above 949–952 (S1) → push into 966–980. If 966 breaks and holds, extension to 988–993 is feasible. Expect whipsaws around 960s.
Bear case (30%): Lose 949–952 → quick test of 937–940. If bids fail there, sweep toward 907–910 (S2) before another bounce attempt.
Bull extension (15%): Strong bid, reclaim 993–1000 LVN; squeeze to 1008–1018 possible if volume expands (less likely within 24h but not impossible given ATR).

Synthesis and trade thesis

Medium-term trend down, but short-term intraday structure constructive with S1 providing support. Mean reversion off a lower-BB breach plus an hourly higher-low structure favors a tactical long, aiming for a retest of 980–990 where supply likely reappears.
Invalidation for the thesis sits below ~939 (break of shelf and hourly trend), with deeper risk to 907 if that fails.

Execution plan (tactical)

Entry: Prefer a buy-the-dip limit near 949–951 (S1 confluence and 1H support); acceptable if current ~953 prints a minor pullback.
Target: 988–993 cluster (pre-breakdown shelf and LVN edge). Choose 988 for prudence given expected chop.
Risk notes: If 949 fails decisively on rising volume, stand aside; a second-chance entry may appear near 937–940 with tighter risk. Use a stop (not requested) near 939 to maintain favorable R:R (~1:2+ to 988).

Bottom line

Short-term: Bullish bias for the next 24 hours into 966 → 980 → 988, provided 949–952 holds. Medium-term trend still bearish; treat this as a countertrend bounce and take profits into resistance.