BNB Coils Below the 20-Day: Fade 941–945 Toward 912 Support

BNB (BNB) multi-timeframe technical rundown and 24h outlook

Summary view

• Regime: Corrective downtrend since mid-October’s peak (~1370), with a series of lower highs and lower lows. Current price 933.03 sits below key moving averages and beneath a heavy 990–1005 resistance shelf (Fib 23.6% of the Oct high to Nov low). Short-term bounce momentum is fading into a tight intraday coil near the pivot.
• Bias next 24h: Modestly bearish-to-range. Expect a re-test of 920–915 support, with a risk of a brief liquidity sweep toward 910–905 if 922–920 gives way. Upside capping likely around 945–955 unless a decisive breakout reclaims 952–955.

1. Price action and structure

• Daily swing map: Lower highs at ~1303 (10/12), 1293 (10/13), 1211 (10/14), 1146 (10/16), 1095 (11/1–2), 996–1005 (11/7–11/10). Lower lows at ~1072 (10/22), 992 (11/3), 938 (11/4), 915 (11/14). This is a clean descending channel/declining structure.
• Current positioning: After a bounce from the 11/14 low (915), price stalled repeatedly below 1000 and has rolled back toward the mid-900s, now compressing ~922–936 intraday.
• Intraday microstructure (1h): Last hours show a symmetrical triangle: higher low at 922.67 and lower high at 936.73, resolving typically in the direction of the prevailing higher-timeframe trend (down) when occurring near range lows.

2. Support and resistance (confluence)

• Immediate support: 928–930 (intraday pivot zone), 922–920 (hourly higher low and liquidity shelf), 915 (11/14 low), 910–905 (stop cluster/round number pool). Deeper: 891–892 (daily S2 from prior day’s pivots), 875–880 (late-Aug support/Bollinger lower envelope region).
• Immediate resistance: 940–946 (overhead supply into R1), 952–955 (hourly supply/Kijun/Tenkan cluster), 966–972 (daily R2/early November highs), 990–1005 (Fib 23.6% retrace cap and heavy supply). Above: 1018–1035, then 1072–1075 (Fib 38.2% from Oct high to Nov low and prior inflection).

3. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20-day SMA ≈ 994 (approx, using last 19 closes ~993.5), price = 933 < 20-SMA: bearish short-term bias.
• 50-day SMA (est.) ≈ 1070–1100 given October’s elevated prints: price below, reinforcing medium-term downtrend.
• 100-day trend proxy (est.) still positive-to-flat but rolling; price below. Multi-MA stack remains bearish.
• 9/21-EMA cluster (est.): upper 940s–950s. Price slightly below/near the lower side of this cluster, acting as dynamic resistance.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI (14) (est.): ~40–44. Below midline, consistent with bearish regime, but not oversold—room to fall.
• Hourly RSI (14): ~48–52 around 933 after a minor bounce—neutral, consistent with coil.
• Stochastic (14,3,3) daily: hovering ~30–35; no clean bullish crossover yet, supports “weak bounce in a downtrend.”
• MACD (12,26,9) daily: Below zero, histogram stabilizing after improvement from 11/14; still not a confirmed bull reversal. On 1h, MACD is flat-to-slightly positive, typical of a pre-break consolidation.

5. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (est.): ~50–65. Expect daily swings of ~5–7%. For the next 24h, a 905–948 envelope is reasonable given current compression.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily (est.): Mid-band ~994; lower band ~914–920; upper band ~1065–1075. Price is sitting between mid and lower bands, favoring mean reversion attempts to 945–955 but with greater risk of another lower-band tag if 920 fails.
• Keltner Channels (20,1.5ATR): Mid ~994, lower ~900–910. Current price is inside the lower channel, typical for trend pullbacks.

6. Volume, OBV, and participation

• Volume profile: Heavy distribution on 11/03–11/04 down days; bounces to ~1000–1005 occurred on lighter volume. This suggests rallies are being sold.
• OBV (qualitative): Trending down since mid-Oct; recent stabilization is not yet a reversal.
• Intraday participation: 1h volumes lightening into the coil, a classic pre-break behavior; in downtrends, such coils tend to break lower.

7. Ichimoku Cloud

• Daily: Price below Kumo; span A < span B; Tenkan (est. ~945–952) below Kijun (est. ~980–990) or nearly converging with it—still bearish. Chikou under price and cloud. A reclaim above 952–955 would be the first sign of improvement; true trend shift needs > 990–1000 and a future Kumo twist.
• 4h/1h: Price largely beneath cloud or at its underside; reinforces sell-the-rip bias until 952–955 is reclaimed and held.

8. Fibonacci mapping (Oct high to Nov low)

• Swing: 1370.5 (10/13) → 889.4 (11/14). Range ≈ 481.1.
• 23.6%: ~1003 (capped multiple times on 11/7–11/10). Strong resistance confirmation.
• 38.2%: ~1072–1073 (confluent with late-Oct inflection). A distant upside target only if trend flips.
• 61.8%: ~1184–1185 (well above current regime).
• Near-term: Current oscillations below 23.6% retrace imply bears still in control; shallow retracements often precede continuation lower.

9. Pivots (classic) using 11/16 H/L/C

• Prior day: H = 948.51, L = 910.90, C = 927.26.
• Pivot P ≈ 928.89; R1 ≈ 946.88; S1 ≈ 909.27; R2 ≈ 966.50; S2 ≈ 891.28; R3 ≈ 984.49; S3 ≈ 871.66.
• Current 933 is just above P; typical rotational behavior would test R1 (946.9) or S1 (909.3) within 24h. With the higher-timeframe bearish tilt, odds favor an S1 probe.

10. Donchian and channel context

• 20-day Donchian lower ≈ 889–915 region (11/14 touch), upper ≈ 1190–1238. Recent touch of lower channel plus failure to reclaim mid suggests continuation unless a firm close > 952–955 occurs.

11. Regression channel and slope

• Linear regression (last 30–40 sessions) slopes down; residuals after the 11/14 bounce are modest. Price is near the lower half of the regression band, so bear rallies to the mean (945–955) are possible but sellable.

12. VWAP and mean reversion

• Monthly VWAP (Nov, est.): near 1000–1010; price is materially below, reinforcing downtrend regime.
• Intraday session VWAP (from 22:00–05:08): ~931–932; price ~933 sits marginally above—neutral at best.

13. ADX/DI and breadth

• ADX (14) daily (est.): ~22–25 and rising mildly; -DI over +DI, signaling a developing but not explosive downtrend. This often leads to grinding lower moves with sharp, sellable counter-trend pops.

14. Candlestick diagnostics

• 11/14 printed a long lower-tail candle near 889–915 zone, prompting a bounce. Subsequent days (11/15–11/16) produced small real bodies/doji, i.e., indecision rather than strong reversal. Today’s intraday bars are small-bodied with wicks—classic coil before expansion.

15. Risk, liquidity, and scenario planning (24h)

• Base case (55%): Breakdown from 1h triangle to test 922–920, then 915. A stop sweep to 910–905 is plausible before mean reversion back toward 920s by end of window.
• Alternate (35%): One more squeeze to 941–947 (R1 pocket), potentially tagging 952–955 if shorts get trapped, then fade back under 940 as supply reloads.
• Low-probability bull (10%): Sustained reclaim of 955 with volume, driving to 966–972 (R2/near-term supply). Would need broad-market tailwind.

16. Strategy synthesis and trade plan

• Edge: The confluence of (a) price below the 20/50-SMAs, (b) MACD below zero, (c) OBV downtrend/distribution, (d) failure to clear the 23.6% Fib at ~1003 repeatedly, and (e) an intraday coil near the lower half of the daily range supports a sell-the-rally approach.
• Optimal entry: Fade a pop into 940–945 where hourly supply and pivot R1 confluence (R1 ≈ 946.9). This offers superior R:R vs. shorting the bid.
• Targeting: First target 915–912 (recent swing low cluster and near S1 path), where responsive bids often appear. More aggressive extension could reach 905, but 912 is prudent within 24h.
• Invalidation (stop reference): A sustained hold > 953–955 (cloud/Tenkan/Kijun/supply) would negate the immediate short thesis and imply potential run to 966–972. Not part of output fields, but essential for risk framing.

17. What would flip the bias

• Bullish evidence needed: Daily close above 955, follow-through reclaim of 990–1005 (Fib 23.6%/20-SMA), uptick in OBV, and ADX rising with +DI over -DI. Until then, rallies are likely supply zones.

24-hour price prediction

• Expected range: 905–948.
• Path: Minor squeeze to 941–945 possible first; failure there likely leads to a roll through 930 to 920–915, with a decent chance of a liquidity sweep 910–905 before stabilizing back near low-920s.

Verdict

• Direction: Sell the pop (Short). The weight of evidence remains bearish with better-than-average R:R fading 941–945 toward 912–915.