BNB coils beneath resistance: buy the dip for a 905–913 break and a run toward 926

BNB (BNB) multi-timeframe technical review and 24h trading plan

1. Market structure and context

• Higher timeframe (Daily): After the October blow-off top (~1336) and subsequent drawdown to the late-November trough (~830, with a capitulation spike to ~803 on Dec 1), price has formed a sequence of higher lows from late November onward (833 → 843 → 864 → 862 → 878 → 883–885 area). The last 10 sessions show a controlled grind higher from 827 → ~900 with contracting ranges and subdued volume—classic post-selloff basing behavior.
• Intermediate structure: Price is compressing below a flat resistance shelf at 905–913 with repeatedly rising troughs (872.9 → 878.9 → 882.4 → 885–891). This maps to an ascending triangle/buildup just beneath resistance—a bullish continuation setup if the lid gives way.
• Intraday (Hourly, last 24h): Rally from sub-890 to a local spike of 913.84 at 20:00 UTC, followed by a fade to ~899.5. That hourly spike left a wick (supply) around 910–914 and suggests a likely early pullback toward 895–897 before another attempt higher.

2. Key levels (confluence)

• Immediate support: 895–897 (hourly pivot cluster), 891–892 (hourly congestion), 885 (multi-touch intraday/daily support and prior higher low).
• Immediate resistance: 905–913 (multi-touch ceiling; the 913.8 spike rejection), then 922–927 (daily R1/past swing supply and 20d Bollinger upper area).
• Thicker support zone below: 872–878 (swing pullback lows). Deeper base: 830–835; capitulation extreme 803.

3. Moving averages

• SMA(5) ≈ 896.1; SMA(10) ≈ 889.1; SMA(20) ≈ 877.5. Current ≈ 899.5 sits above 5/10/20 SMAs. The short-term stack (5 > 10 > 20) is bullish and price is using the 5–10 day ribbon as dynamic support.
• The higher MA complex (e.g., ~50d/100d) likely remains above price after the October/November slide, so the longer-term regime is still corrective/bearish while the short-term regime is bullish. This favors upside continuation over the next sessions but within a broader recovery.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14, daily) ≈ 52. It has recovered from oversold, sits just above neutral, and has room to rise—supporting continuation without immediate overbought risk.
• Stochastic (estimate): ~70–80 zone, reflecting price seated in the upper portion of its recent 14-day range—not a sell signal by itself; rather, consistent with a buildup under resistance.
• MACD (qualitative): Positive and flattening, consistent with consolidation beneath resistance; no bearish cross yet on the daily.

5. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands(20,2): SMA20 ≈ 877.5; upper ≈ 929; lower ≈ 826. Bandwidth has narrowed materially (post-capitulation compression). Price is tracking the mid-to-upper band with room to the upper band—a common setup for a squeeze-and-go toward ~925–929 if resistance breaks.
• ATR(14, daily) (est.) ≈ 40–45. A typical 24h swing of ~4–5% is feasible; thus, a move from ~900 toward ~925–930 fits inside 1 ATR.

6. Ichimoku (approximate)

• Tenkan (9) ≈ (recent 9H+9L)/2 ≈ ~900.
• Kijun (26) ≈ ~906 (using window that includes the Nov 10–14 highs and the 793–803 lows). Current price is just under the Kijun—consistent with overhead resistance at 905–913. A clean reclaim of Kijun often precedes impulsive tests of the next supply (~922–930).
• The longer-span cloud (52) is still overhead from the prior downtrend, so bigger-picture resistance remains higher, but the near-term cloud picture supports a test higher once 906–913 is converted.

7. Fibonacci and measured moves

• From the Dec 1 capitulation low (~803) to the Dec 9 swing high (~926.5), price retraced to 872–885 (38–50% zone) and reclaimed ~900—healthy constructive pullback behavior.
• A measured move from the ascending triangle base (885–891) targeting the height to ~913 implies an initial projection to ~935–940 on a clean breakout; the first practical target is the pre-identified resistance band 922–929.

8. Pivots and intraday reference levels

• Classic daily pivots (based on Dec 9 H/L/C 926.5/882.4/898.8):
  • Pivot P ≈ 902.6 (magnet)
  • R1 ≈ 922.7; R2 ≈ 946.7
  • S1 ≈ 878.6; S2 ≈ 858.5 Price danced around P (~902) and rejected near 913; a 24h push through P and 905–913 opens path to R1 ≈ 923.

9. Volume/flow

• Daily volume has tapered (1.4–2.3bn range recently), indicating supply exhaustion after the November washout and a buildup phase. The 20:00 UTC spike into 913 printed increased intraday volume and immediate supply absorption (wick), which often precedes a shallow dip to reload (895–897) before a second push.

10. Pattern/price action tells

• Ascending triangle under 905–913 (bullish bias).
• Tight daily candles around the 5–10 SMA ribbon show compression and acceptance of higher prices.
• Intraday: a single failed spike (913.8) and a controlled pullback—no impulsive reversal.

11. Regression channel (post-Dec 1)

• A rising channel from ~803 with a midline drifting around 891–894 and upper rail near 915–920. Price is slightly above the midline—room to test the upper rail again and, if momentum strengthens, to overshoot toward 925–929.

12. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55–60%): Buy-the-dip to 895–897, then rotate up to retest 905–913; on 1–2 strong hourly closes above 906–909, continuation to 922–927 where supply returns.
• Bull case (25–30%): Quick reclaim of 905–913 early in the session; momentum squeeze to 927–932, possibly tagging 935 if volume expands (less likely without fresh impetus).
• Bear case (15–20%): Failure below 905 with heavier offers → drift to 891–892; if 889–885 breaks on volume, extension to 878–879 (S1 vicinity). This is the invalidation area for the immediate bullish triangle thesis.

13. Trade construction logic

• Long bias is favored by: (a) rising short-term MAs under price; (b) RSI > 50 with headroom; (c) Bollinger positioning with upper band at ~929 aligning with the next resistance band; (d) ascending triangle and higher lows; (e) pivot structure pointing to R1 ~923.
• Tactically, a buy-the-dip entry slightly below spot (to 896 area) captures the expected early pullback while maintaining proximity to a clear invalidation (below 885). The first take-profit aligns with the confluence zone 922–927 (R1 + prior swing supply + Bollinger upper vicinity), which is reachable within 1 ATR.

Proposed 24h plan

• Bias: Buy (Long) on dip
• Optimal entry: 896.0 (buy limit near hourly support cluster)
• Primary target (TP): 926.2 (just beneath the 926–927 supply shelf to improve fill odds)
• Invalidation (stop, for risk planning, not required but recommended): 884.8 (below multi-touch support); R:R ≈ +30.2 / -11.2 ≈ 2.7:1

Why not short 905–913? The broader short-term structure is a series of higher lows pressing on static resistance—statistically more likely to resolve higher. Short scalps into 905–913 have diminishing edge unless accompanied by clear reversal signals and rising sell volumes. Given current compression, the asymmetry favors a breakout attempt within 24h rather than a deep rejection.

Bottom line (24h outlook)

• Expect an early dip to 895–897, followed by another probe of 905–913. A clean intraday close above ~909–911 should unlock 922–927. Base case target: 926.2 within the next 24 hours; risk of retest 889–885 if the ceiling holds and momentum fades.