Step 1: Trend Analysis (Market Structure Assessment)

• Medium-to-Long Term Trend: Reviewing the daily chart data over the past three months, we see that BTC experienced a significant climb from sub-$80,000 (early March lows) to the current range above $111,000. Price action since mid-March has been generally bullish, with higher lows and higher highs, interrupted by periods of sharp volatility but quickly reclaimed by buyers, reflecting persistent demand despite setbacks. Noteworthy is the explosive breakout in May, moving from ~$95,000 to ~$111,000 in under three weeks.
• Short-Term Trend: Examining the hourly data for May 21-22, BTC confirmed a fresh upsurge, peaking intraday at $111,944 before consolidating just below $111,100. Recurrent intraday volatility with upper wicks but consistent closes toward the highs shows sustained bullish pressure.

Step 2: Candlestick Patterns and Price Action

• Recent Daily Candlesticks: May 21 and 22 display strong bullish candlesticks with minimal upper shadows and closes near daily highs, indicating strong buying through the session without meaningful retracement.
• Intraday Hourlies: Minor pullbacks (~$110,900) are met with immediate buying. The most recent hourly closes near $111,048 with volume surges coincide with bullish candles, suggesting an ongoing accumulation phase rather than exhaustion.

Step 3: Support & Resistance Levels

• All-Time High Resistance: $111,944 (today’s high) is the immediate resistance. A break and hold above this could catalyze a sharp squeeze as shorts are forced to cover.
• Short-Term Support: $110,000 (psychological and prior hourly base), closely followed by a support cluster at $109,800-$110,000 from previous hourly consolidation pivots.
• Deeper Support: $108,000-$109,000 forms the next band (prior break-out level).

Step 4: Volume Analysis

• Rising Volume with Rising Price: The last two days feature surging volumes alongside large moves––confirming trend strength and participation. Peak hourly volumes coincide with rallies, indicating that this price movement is not on weak hands.
• No Distribution Signs: There is little evidence of expanding volume on red candles; distributive action is not apparent.

Step 5: Technical Indicators

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): While the raw chart lacks exact RSI values, the price’s steep ascent and persistent closes near highs are characteristic of an overbought yet trending market. In such regimes, overbought does not guarantee a reversal; rather, it implies the need to be cautious of sudden unwinds but to respect the trend.
• Moving Averages (Implied): The trending price is far above any logically constructed 20, 50, or 200-period moving averages (projected from price structure). Typically, breakouts followed by consolidation on the highs and continued bids above moving averages reveal trend continuation setups.
• Bollinger Bands (Implied): Price hugging or breaking the upper band typically signals strong bullish momentum in trending environments. Here, a brief pause after a sharp squeeze up to the upper band and then walking along it is standard in strong uptrends.
• MACD (Implied): The acceleration in price plus high volume infers a strong positive MACD crossover.

Step 6: Chart Patterns

• Parabolic Advance and Flag: The move from $105,000 to $111,000+ is steep — an impulse move, often followed by bullish continuation flags. Currently, BTC seems to have formed a tight flag above $110,500, suggesting another push higher likely upon breaking $112,000.
• No Classic Reversal Patterns: No head-and-shoulders, double tops, or distribution patterns are present. All setups reinforce a breakout-continuation bias.

Step 7: Market Sentiment and Volatility

• Sentiment: Aggressive bids at every dip, fresh all-time highs, and no meaningful rejection wick on the dailies denotes FOMO and confident buyers.
• Volatility: The rocket from $105,000 to $111,000 in two days is classic volatility expansion. Typically, after such a move, a period of high volatility persists, with risk of both sharp continuation rallies and sudden whipsaws on stops.
• Volume Spike Cluster: The last several hourly candles saw volume surges without price break-downs, confirming buyers are still in control.

Step 8: Fibonacci Extensions (Projection)

• From Prior Key Move:
  • The leg from $94,000 (early May) to $111,944 (current high) is ~$17,900. Projecting a 1.618 Fibonacci extension from the $103,000 recent consolidation yields targets in the $113,000–$114,000 region, with 2.0 extension just above $115,000.

Step 9: Risk Management and Trade Planning

• Upside Breakout Entry Bias: The consolidation near $111,000 after a vertical impulse, with low volatility pullbacks on low volume, presents an optimal entry just before a likely secondary push.
• Stop-Loss Zone: Optimal stops lie below $110,000 (recent hourly support and round number). A break and close below this could invite deeper pullback to $108,500–$109,000.
• Profit Target: Targeting $113,500 (midpoint between prior extension levels and next psychological milestone) is realistic, with aggressive profit-taking possible toward $114,000–$115,000 if momentum persists.

Step 10: Combined Analysis and Synthesis

Every major technical confirmation aligns bullishly:

• Strong uptrend in all timeframes
• High volume confirming both breakout and follow-through
• Tight flag/consolidation at highs (classic trend continuation)
• No technical evidence of reversal or heavy profit-taking
• Fibonacci and round-number extensions point higher
• Optimal risk/reward on a break above $111,100

Conclusion: The setup is an archetypal bull trend continuation. Given the ongoing momentum, strong volume, and absence of reversal signals, the reward for positioning long outweighs the risks, so a Buy order is preferred.

Final Recommendation

• Bias: Buy (Long Position)
• Open Price: As close to current market as possible. Optimal entry on a small dip or upon next bullish hourly confirmation, ideally in the $111,000–$111,100 range.
• Take-Profit Level: $113,500 (first major target); scale or trail toward $115,000 for further strength.

Note: Aggressive traders can scale in on break of $111,200 (recent high-intraday resistance); conservative traders place stop-loss just below $110,000. Adjust for personal risk tolerance.