Bitcoin (BTC) 24h Exhaustive Technical Analysis

1. Trend and Price Structure Analysis

Multi-Timeframe Trend Evaluation

• Macro Daily Chart:
  • Starting from late February 2025, Bitcoin was trading in the low $90,000s, experienced a significant correction into the $80,000s and even as low as $74,000–$76,000 (early April), but has rallied strongly since mid-April to reach new all-time highs, peaking above $111,000.
• Recent Short-Term Trend:
  • Recent price behavior (May 20–25) shows a rapid rally from $105,000 to $111,973 (May 22), followed by a sharp rejection and consolidation in the $106,800–$108,800 range.
  • Hourly candles on May 25 reveal a tight oscillating range ($106,725–$108,270) with frequent wicks on both sides, indicative of high-frequency trading and potential supply absorption.

Key Chart Patterns Identified

• Ascending Channel (Daily):
  • Since April, higher highs and higher lows confirm an active uptrend.
• Double Top Formation (Hourly):
  • On the hourly, price action near $108,800 and subsequent rejection at $108,200–$108,800 suggests a local double top and minor distribution phase.
• Bullish Flag (4h/Hourly):
  • Despite rejection from all-time highs, price is consolidating just below resistance, which can act as a re-accumulation pattern before the next move.

2. Volume and Order Flow

Volume Analysis

• Daily Volume:
  • Volume peaked at the rally to highs ($70B+), but has since decreased, conveying less FOMO and some market indecision.
• Intraday Volume:
  • Recent hours show declining volume during the tight range, suggesting potential for explosive move if either side takes control.
• Volume-Price Divergence:
  • Despite a pullback from ATH, volume on the sell-down is not overpowering, implying limited conviction from sellers.

Order Book/Whale Behavior (Proxy via Candle Wicks and Ranges)

• Several long wicks under $107,000 show persistent demand absorption; $106,700 offers psychological short-term support. Multiple failed attempts above $108,200 suggest resistance, likely from larger hands taking profits or managing risk.

3. Technical Indicators

Moving Averages

• 200-Day MA (~$86,000): Well below current price, highlighting a sustained macro uptrend.
• 50-Day MA (~$97,000): Price remains safely above, indicating ongoing bullish momentum.
• 21-Period EMA (Hourly, ~$107,300): Acts as dynamic support, with recent hourly candles bouncing off this level, bolstering short-term bullish case.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

• Daily RSI: In the 73–78 range; entering overbought territory but not at historic extremes, suggesting bulls still have the momentum.
• Hourly RSI: Pulled back from extreme highs, currently in 55–60 zone, resetting without a major breakdown: classic consolidation after a large breakout.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

• Daily MACD: Still in bullish territory with a positive histogram, but showing early signs of flattening – suggesting possible short-term exhaustion.
• Hourly MACD: Recent bearish cross, but histogram is becoming less negative, signaling momentum could shift back to the upside quickly on a breakout.

Bollinger Bands

• Daily: Bands rapidly expanded on the breakout, price now coiling just below upper band = prepping for the next leg.
• Hourly: Price hugging mid-to-upper band, confirming controlled consolidation above recent impulse lows.

4. Support & Resistance Mapping

Immediate Levels

• Resistance:
  • $108,800–$109,500: Repeated hourly rejections; also the lower end of the sell-off post ATH.
  • $111,000–$111,970: Previous all-time high zones.
• Support:
  • $107,100–$106,700: Multiple bounces in recent hours/days; strong volume node.
  • $105,600–$106,000: Next volume shelf, key if range breaks down.

Fibonacci Extensions (From $74,000 Swing Low to $111,970 ATH)

• 0.236 retracement: ~$102,000
• 0.382 retracement: ~$97,500
• 1.618 extension: $120,000+ (medium-term target if new rally begins)

5. Sentiment, Market Structure, and Volatility

• General Market Sentiment: Slightly euphoric post-breakout but not at unsustainable extremes (not parabolic yet; pauses with healthy consolidations).
• Volatility Indicators: Bollinger Band Width elevated, but compressing in recent hours = setup for directional expansion.
• Derivative Indicators (Implied Vol, Funding Rates, though not provided): Likely slightly positive with premium post-ATHs, caution of overleveraged long squeezes below $107,000.

6. Summary of Professional Investment Techniques

Wyckoff Accumulation/Distribution

• Current behavior is classic “re-accumulation after markup.” No signs yet of outright distribution (no supply climax or breakdown through structural supports).

Elliott Wave Theory

• Likely in the middle of a larger impulsive wave up (possibly Wave 3 or 5), correcting only minor subwaves. No evidence yet of a full 5-wave exhaustion.

Price Action & Orderblock Analysis

• Strong bullish orderblock confirmed at $106,700–$107,100
• Liquidity pools remain above $109,000 – breakout above $108,900 could trigger stop-run to new highs.

7. 24-Hour Price Prediction & Scenario Planning

Base case:

• Bitcoin continues to consolidate within the $106,700–$108,900 range, forming a tight coil. Given strong macro trend, healthy volume on dips, relative weakness of sellers, and multi-indicator alignment – a breakout is likely, with the next move to test $109,500 and $111,000. If $108,900 is breached with volume, anticipate quick extension to retest ATHs. Downside risk remains moderate, with buyers likely to step in at $106,700 and $105,600 if a breakdown occurs.

8. Recommendation (Buy/Sell)

Given the powerful macro uptrend, consolidation right below resistance, supportive volume dynamics, and a bullish confluence of technical factors, the highest probability trade is to BUY (go long) on a small retracement or breakout confirmation.

9. Trade Setup – Entry and Take Profit

• Open (Buy) Price: $107,350 (Optimal: if price dips to this local support in early hours; otherwise consider breakout entry above $108,900 for aggressive traders)
• Take Profit (Close) Price: $111,500 (Targeting retest/extension of recent all-time highs, with liquidity likely to push price above prior resistance)