Exhaustive Technical Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) – 2025-05-28

Step 1: Trend Analysis

Long-Term Trend: Examining the daily chart since February 28, 2025, Bitcoin has been in a persistent uptrend. In late February/early March BTC was trading near the $84,000-$86,000 range, with significant volatility but an overall positive slope. The price action shows strong moves up, short-lived retracements, and higher highs/lows. The recent local low in mid-May was $102,112.68 (May 19), with the current price at $107,246.77, indicating continuation of the major uptrend.

Short-Term (Hourly) Trend: Recent hourly candles from May 27 to May 28 show a period of mild consolidation with bearish undertones. There’s a visible downtrend from the peak at $110,744 (May 27) into the current $107,246. Volume is higher on down candles, suggesting sellers remain active near local highs.

Step 2: Momentum Indicators

RSI (Relative Strength Index): While I can't compute exact RSI values without raw OHLC granularity, the steep run-up to $111,970 (May 22) followed by a multi-day failure to make new highs then the breakdown back toward $107k suggests RSI likely left overbought territory (~70+) and currently hovers in the mid-50s/40s region – signaling a neutral to slightly bearish momentum.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The recent high topped on May 22–23, with ensuing lower highs. MACD histogram would show declining momentum and a possible bearish crossover, with the MACD line converging toward/even dropping below the signal line.

ADX (Average Directional Index): Persistent trending strength was highest during the run to $110k+, but ADX would likely be flattening now, indicating a period of trend exhaustion and possible upcoming range or reversal.

Step 3: Support & Resistance

• Resistance Levels:
  • $109,400–$110,700 (last major highs, upthrusts during the 21st – 27th)
  • $111,970 (ATH in this chart)
• Support Levels:
  • $107,000 (multiple tests on hourly chart between 28th 14:00–20:00)
  • $106,800 (20:00 hour low)
  • Psychological & recent range: $105,600 (May 19 close)

BTC is compressing between these two bands, with price currently on the lower end, threatening a breakdown. Range contraction is visible.

Step 4: Volume Profile

Notably, higher volume transacted during the recent bounce attempts near $107.2k–$107.7k and especially during volatile moves down (18:00–20:00). Volume decreasing as price bounces implies weakening buy interest, hinting a lack of strong support from bulls at these levels.

Step 5: Candle Patterns & Price Action

1H Candles:

• 13:00–15:00 show sharp drops with weak recoveries (long upper wicks, bearish bodies), typical of distribution.
• 16:00–20:00: Series of lower closes, failed rallies, and a small-bodied candle at 20:00, suggesting indecision but bias to the downside.

Daily Candles:

• Last five daily closes: Lower highs, choppy closes, and a major rejection from $110,744—all consistent with topping behavior and potential reversal.

Step 6: Chart Patterns

Double Top:

• Between May 21 and May 27 (~$110,700 zone) with subsequent failure to hold above $109,000. Measured move for a double top would suggest a target in the $105,000–$106,000 area if confirmation occurs.

Bear Flag/Channel:

• Rising channel structure starting to break down during last few days; recent price action appears to be the start of a cascading sell, classic for end-of-trend moves or profit taking at all-time highs.

Step 7: Moving Averages (MA)

Short-Term (20/50 EMA):

• Price is now below the presumed 20-hour EMA and flirting with the 50-hour EMA area. Failing to reclaim $108,000 on a closing basis intensifies the short-term bearish pressure.

Multi-Day MAs:

• Price still well above 100/200 MA on the daily, signaling the larger bullish trend is intact, but short-term correction is probable.

Step 8: Fibonacci Retracement (Recent Swing)

• If we plot Fib from $101,515 (May 13 low) to $111,970 (May 22 high):
  • 23.6%: ~$109,600 (already broken)
  • 38.2%: ~$108,420 (current hover point)
  • 50%: ~$106,740 (potential next support)
  • 61.8%: ~$105,100

Breakdown below $108,400 closes open to move toward $106,700 and possibly $105,100 in the next 24 hours.

Step 9: Order Flow/Market Sentiment

• Given rejection of highs, failed rebounds, bearish candle structure, and absence of strong buying volume on dips, sentiment appears cautious to bearish. Bulls have not defended $109k; bears likely to re-test $107k and possibly push lower in the short term.

Step 10: Volatility Analysis

• Recent 24-hour range is compressing ($110,700 down to $107,200), but large historic volatility following such compressions often leads to big directional moves; here, risk leans to further downside.

Step 11: Risk-Reward & Position Sizing

• Entering short near $107,250 gives minor risk to $108,500 but good reward to $106,000–105,000. Risk/reward on short is favorable with stop above $108,500–$109,000 (recent failed bounces).

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Conclusion & 24h Price Prediction

All technical tools—price action, momentum, order flow, patterns, moving averages, and sentiment—align for a SHORT-TERM DOWNSIDE MOVE. In the next 24 hours, high probability BTC will re-test and possibly break $107k, targeting $106,000 initially. If $106k fails, $105,000 is the next likely support. Any rebound above $108,500 invalidates the immediate bearish case.

Final Position:

• SELL (Short Position)
• Open at: $107,250
• Close at: $106,000 (conservative short-term target)

Potential further downside exists, but profit-taking recommended at $106,000 for risk control.

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