Comprehensive Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis and 24h Price Prediction — 2025-05-29

I. Overview

Current price: $106,143.79 (as of 2025-05-29 20:58 UTC) BTC has recently experienced strong price action, establishing fresh all-time highs above $111,000, followed by a notable retracement to the $106,000–$107,000 region. The past week displayed a wide trading range and elevated volatility with large-volume moves. This analysis leverages extensive technical and quantitative approaches, combining candlestick analysis, trend assessment, volume profile, volatility, moving averages, oscillators, Fibonacci tools, and market structure.

II. Multi-timeframe Chart Structure and Price Pattern Analysis

1. Daily Chart & Trend Structure

• Overall Trend: BTC remains in a definitive long-term uptrend, evident since the break above $95,000 in May. Price action has established higher highs and higher lows.
• Recent Swings: After the rally to ~$111,970 (high on 5/22), there has been a sharp pullback, forming a local top. Current price is consolidating above the prior breakout resistance zone ($104,000–$106,000).
• Candle Patterns: Several long upper wicks in the $109,000–$111,000 zone signal profit-taking. However, today’s candle is showing a rejection of further downside, with a lower wick, suggesting intraday demand is returning.

2. 4-Hour / 1-Hour Chart Decomposition

• Short-term Pattern: Price formed a defined intraday double bottom at ~$105,700, and twice tested $106,000 before bouncing, indicative of strong support.
• Volume: Highest volumes occurred during the high-to-low retracement, confirming the shake-out phase. Volume has since normalized, pointing to reduced selling urgency.
• Microstructure: The last 6–8 hours show BTC pressing against resistance at $106,200–$106,300, mildly pressing upward with higher lows.
• Volatility: Average True Range (ATR-14) on the 4h declined from its recent peak, signaling a pause before the next impulsive leg.

III. Technical Indicators and Professional Tools

1. Moving Averages (MA)

• EMA 20/50/100 (Daily): All are upward sloping; price currently rests just above or near EMA20 and EMA50 ($105,500–$106,750), confirming broadly positive momentum remains.
• MA Confluence Support: The $105,700–$106,000 region is reinforced by multiple MAs acting as dynamic support.

2. Oscillators

• RSI (14, Daily): RSI cooled from overbought (> 70) to ~60, now resetting and leaving further upside open without being overheated.
• MACD (Daily): Slight bearish crossover after the high, but histogram momentum is quickly flattening. A turn in MACD at this level would be a strong buy signal if price holds.

3. Fibonacci Levels

• Fibonacci Retracements: Major leg from $93,000 to $111,970 projects:
  • 23.6% = $107,715
  • 38.2% = $105,870 Price is hovering between these two important retracement zones, often an area for trend continuation and secondary buying.

4. Pivot Points

• R1: $107,800 | S1: $105,900
• Spot is currently sandwiched between the first daily support and resistance, indicating a significant decision zone. A sustained break above $107,800 opens the path to $109,700+.

5. Volume Profile Visual Range (VPVR)

• Highest on-balance volume over past two weeks clusters around $105,000–$107,500, suggesting a strong demand node here. Above $108,000, the volume ‘void’ signals fewer obstacles for advances.

IV. Sentiment & Orderbook Flow

• Spot/Derivatives OI: No evidence of a negative funding squeeze, and OI remains elevated. Sellers have not heavily reloaded after the retrace. Cumulative delta is stabilizing.
• Behavioral: Post-shakeout consolidation signals whales are accumulating at these levels, not capitulating.

V. Market Structure and Elliott Wave Perspective

• Impulse and Correction: The rally from late April to mid-May unfolded in a 5-wave Elliott structure. The correction to $106,000 appears to be a Wave 2 retracement, setting up for a potential Wave 3 or continuation rally.
• Projection: Based on measured moves and typical wave extensions, the next leg could retest $109,000–$110,000 if $107,500 is broken with conviction.

VI. Intermarket and Macro Correlation

• No immediate major macro risk events; traditional markets are stable. USD Index and risk assets remain relatively supportive. ETF flows for BTC have rebounded.

VII. Synthesis & 24-hour Price Forecast

• Support Zone: $105,700–$106,000 (robust technical and volume-backed support)
• Resistance Zone: $107,500–$108,200; extension targets $109,700–$110,000 if breakout.
• Trend Bias: Upwards bias after recent pullback, with risk skewed toward a rally attempt over the next 24h.
• Trade Triggers: A buy-the-dip opportunity is present above $106,000, with tight risk control below $105,700. Invalidated on a strong close below $105,000.

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Conclusion:

• All technical evidence, volume analysis, and patterns point to a high-probability continuation to the upside, favored by resilient supports and the soaking up of late seller pressure. A short-term breakout is likely as long as $105,700–$106,000 holds. The optimal strategy is a tactical long (Buy) opened slightly above current price to minimize slippage and false breakdowns, with a target toward the $109,700 region, and a stop just below $105,000 for risk management.

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