Comprehensive Technical Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) as of 2025-05-30

1. Overview and Recent Performance

Bitcoin is currently priced at $104,627.45. Over the past three months, BTC has demonstrated significant volatility, traversing from sub-$90k levels in March to all-time-high regions above $111k in late May. This uptrend has seen intermittent corrections and periods of powerful upward momentum.

2. Trend Analysis

Long-term Trend

• Bullish Structure: From March lows around $80k, BTC established higher lows and sharply higher highs, culminating in the $111k peak on May 22.
• Medium-Term Correction: After the $111k peak, there was a swift retracement to ~$105k, followed by choppy corrective action. This signals a pause but not a reversal in the bull market.

Short-term Trend

• Recent 2-Week Action: After peaking at $111,970 (May 22), BTC pulled back to ~$107k-$109k, then briefly spiked to $110.7k (May 27), but followed with successive lower highs and lower closes, ending at $104,627 now.
• Last 24 Hours: Strong sell-off from $107.8k high (May 29) to $104.6k, with multiple support tests at $104k and failed recovery attempts above $105.7k. The local trend is weak, with sellers controlling the tape.

3. Key Support and Resistance Levels

• Support:
  • $104,000: Multiple intraday bounces in the past 24h.
  • $103,500: Previous hourly support (May 30, 16:00), also aligns with intraday volumes.
  • $101,500~$102,800: Higher time-frame support from mid-May.
• Resistance:
  • $105,700–$106,300: Recent rejection zone on May 30.
  • $107,800–$108,000: Breakdown point and last failed bounce.
  • $110,750 and $111,970: Overhead supply and all-time-high region.

4. Volume and Market Structure

• Volume Analysis:
  • Spikes in volume correspond to breakdown candles (notably May 29-30), indicating strong institutional selling.
  • Recent attempts at recovery (bids above $105.7k) are on modest volume, suggesting lack of aggressive buyers at current levels.

5. Volatility Indices

• ATR (Average True Range, est.): Elevated, with $2–3k intraday swings common over the last week, indicating the likelihood of sharp follow-through on breakouts or breakdowns.

6. Candlestick and Chart Patterns

• Daily Candles:
  • Multiple upper wicks on May 29-30, signifying rejection at higher levels and distribution.
  • Last daily close formed a bearish engulfing, swallowing several prior bullish candles – a strong reversal signal.
• Hourly Structure:
  • Series of lower highs and lower lows since the breakdown beneath $108k.
  • Failure to reclaim earlier intraday support (~$105.7k), with each bounce sold into, confirming local downtrend.

7. Oscillator/Technical Indicators

• RSI (est.): Descended from overbought (above 70) to near neutral/50, but with continued downward momentum, suggesting more downside room before reaching oversold.
• MACD (est.): Bearish crossover confirmed post-May 22, with histogram widening—a sign the local bear trend is gaining strength.
• Stochastic: Not yet in oversold on the 4hr; room for further decline.

8. Moving Averages

• Short-term (20/50 EMA): Price is trading below both, after losing them as support. EMAs have rolled over and may act as active resistance on bounces.
• Long-term (200 EMA): Not immediately tested, but the slope remains upward, underlining broader bullish context—however, short-term traders should be wary of further declines before long-term dip buyers step in.

9. Fibonacci Retracement

• Measuring from the $80k swing low (March) to $112k high (May):
  • 23.6% Fib: ~$104,100 (current support, being tested now)
  • 38.2% Fib: ~$98,200
  • 50% Fib: ~$96,000
• Price is hovering around the shallowest retracement level, suggesting a potential for sharper correction if current support doesn’t hold.

10. Order Flow & Sentiment

• Order Book Analysis (implied): Weakness in bounces suggests limit sellers outweigh market buyers. Aggressive selling supply prevalent around $105,700.
• Sentiment: Overheated after May’s parabolic rally. Some late longs are being washed out following recent breakdowns.

11. Elliott Wave Structure (Hypothetical)

• Cycle topped at $112k (Wave 3 or 5). Now either in an ABC correction, with A leg finishing near $104k and B-C legs yet to play out, or a shallow consolidation before another sharp run if macro bid returns.

12. Risk/Reward and Scenario Mapping

• Bearish case: Failure of $104k support triggers further liquidation to $102.5k, $101.5k, or even psychological $100k round number.
• Bullish case: Only a rapid reclaim and hold above $106k can re-establish confidence for bulls to target $108k+, but this is less likely given current tape action.
• R/R: Favoring short entries on weak bounces, as risk is limited above recent resistance and potential reward is several thousand points.

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13. Combined Technical Synthesis

• The sum of volume distribution, moving average failures, oscillator rollovers, and order flow signals indicates: Bitcoin is in a local downtrend likely to continue, at least in the coming 24 hours, unless the $106k level is forcefully reclaimed.
• There is scope for a relief bounce, but most signals favor selling into such moves rather than bottom-fishing.

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14. Trading Plan and Execution

• Optimal strategy: Wait for a feeble bounce towards the former support, now resistance, in the $105,700–$106,000 range, and enter a short/“Sell” position there.
• If $104,000 fails cleanly, aggressive traders can chase a breakdown, but prefer a higher reward/risk on an uptick entry.
• Profit target: Next major support near $102,000, where high time-frame buyers might respond and volatility may increase. Tighten stops above $106,300 if price bounces post-entry.

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Conclusion: SHORT-TERM BEARISH, SELL THE RALLY

Bitcoin’s trend structure, momentum indicators, and volume analysis all signal a likely continuation of the corrective leg, at least into the $102,000-$103,000 region within the next 24 hours unless a surprise bid takes price back over $106k.

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POSITION: SELL

• Open Price (Sell/Short): $105,700 (optimal entry on a bounce to resistance, but can scale in from $104,900–$105,700)
• Close Price (Cover/Take-Profit): $102,000 (next major support and profit zone, ahead of potential big buyer interest)

Risk management: Place a hard stop-loss above $106,300 to mitigate the risk of a sudden reversal or squeeze.

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Summary: Bitcoin is in a local downtrend with further downside likely before a meaningful bounce. SELL rallies into the $105,700 region and target $102,000 for covering the position.