Step-by-Step Technical Analysis on BTC as of 2025-05-31

1. Trend Analysis (Daily & Hourly)

Long-term Trend (3-month daily)

• BTC has rallied significantly from early March lows around $77,000–$80,000 to now $104,825, representing an impressive uptrend (~35% appreciation).
• The uptrend is punctuated by healthy consolidation phases (~$80,000–$87,000 in March, ~$95,000–$105,000 in May) and formidable rallies (notably in April above $94,000 and a surge in late May/early June toward new highs).

Short-term Trend (Last 36h, Hourly Chart)

• After a retrace to the $103,000-region on May 30, BTC rebounded and has stabilized above $104,000 for most of the last 24 hours, with multiple hourly tests and retests of $103,600–$104,800.
• The last 6 hours show marginally higher lows and attempted higher highs—showing incipient bullish momentum returning after a minor pullback.
• Recent hourly candles close near their highs with increased volumes, indicating renewed buying strength into the New York weekend close.

2. Support and Resistance

• Support:
  • Key immediate support at $103,000 (recent daily and hourly lows).
  • Next major support at $101,500 and $100,800 (daily lows from May 19 and May 12).
• Resistance:
  • Key local resistance at $104,835 (current price and local high).
  • Major psychological and technical resistance at $106,000 (May swing high and previous failed breakout attempts).
  • Next resistance zone at $109,500–$111,700 (recent all-time highs posted May 21–23).

3. Technical Indicators

Moving Averages

• 10, 20, and 50 period daily MAs (approximated visually) all slope upward and stack in bullish order (price above all). This is a classic bullish confirmation of trend continuation.
• On the recent hourly chart, price retested the 20- and 50-hour MA bands ($103,600–$104,100 zone) and bounced upward—suggesting buyers remain in control post-shakeout.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

• Daily RSI (visually estimated) approaches the high-60s to low-70s – slightly overbought but not extreme, suggesting room for further upside before major bearish divergence or correction.
• Hourly RSI has recovered from earlier dips and now signals increasing bullish momentum but not yet overbought (>70), supporting further short-term upside.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

• Daily MACD rapidly rising, with a bullish cross in early May and histogram expanding – classic momentum confirmation.
• On the hourly, the MACD shows a bullish cross in the last several hours, confirming the bounce from local support.

ATR (Average True Range, Volatility)

• ATR decreasing in the past 3 days, indicating a slight reduction from previous volatility, but current levels remain elevated relative to March/April—suggesting potential for a strong impulsive move soon as the market compresses and prepares for breakout volatility.

4. Volume Analysis

• Volume on bearish candles during May 29–30 was heavier than average but followed by a strong absorption of supply as bulls defended $103k on elevated volume.
• The most recent green candles have corresponding rising volume, confirming buyer commitment.

5. Chart Patterns & Price Action

• Bullish Flag: The consolidation from $109k down to $103k from May 23–31 resembles a classic bull flag—sharp rise, downward sloping channel, and now attempting a breakout above the $104.8k flagpole resistance.
• Higher Lows: Each retrace finds a higher low (May 30: $103,200 vs May 27: $102,112), keeping the overall bullish market structure intact.
• Wick Absorption: Deep wicks on May 30–31 hourly candles at $103k–$103.5k reveal aggressive buyers stepping in—a sign of accumulation, not distribution.

6. Order Flow and Sentiment

• Sustained resilience above the $103k–$104k base zone after a rapid down-move (potential shakeout) often precedes another impulsive leg up, especially after a long bull flag consolidation.
• With the all-time high ($111k) posted just a week ago, any bullish catalyst (like US session opening, ETF flows or macro news) could trigger a run at $106k and then a test of new highs.

7. Fib Retracement & Extensions

• The May advance from $94k to $111k retraced perfectly to the 0.382–0.50 Fib area ($103k–$104.5k), bounced, and now attempts to resume the uptrend.
• Extension projects $106k–$109.8k as the initial target on breakout.

8. Comparative Intermarket Analysis

• BTC is outperforming major risk-on assets (stocks, altcoins) the past 2 weeks; its resilience through volatility attracts more institutional flows.
• No evidence of near-term macro or regulatory headwinds able to pause the uptrend yet.

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Prediction (Next 24 hours)

• Given:
  • Sustained higher lows
  • Bullish momentum reasserting after $103k defense
  • Strong volume on latest upward candles
  • Resolving a 7-day bull flag pattern
  • RSI and MACD not yet exhausted
• Expect BTC to break out above $105,000, retest $106,000 (local high), and potentially rally toward $108,000. Some volatility and resistance should be expected at $105.8k–$106k. Downside risk is limited to $103,200 (recent strong support).

Strategy and Trade Decision

• Position: Buy (Long)
• Open Price: Ideal entry on minor dip: $104,600 (previous hourly support, minor pullback).
• Close (Take Profit) Price: $107,900 (slightly below $108k resistance and the Fib extension—exits before front-running sellers at round number resistance).

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Final Note

• Stop-loss suggested below $103,000 support, but not formally specified per prompt requirements.
• If momentum stalls and reverses at $106k, aggressive profit-taking is recommended. Risk seekers may scale out at $106k and $108k.

Summary:

BTC has concluded a healthy correction and is poised for a renewed advance. All major technicals (trend, indicators, volume, market structure) favor a breakout and push toward $107,900 in the next 24h. Buying a minor intraday pullback offers optimal risk/reward before the next impulsive move higher.