Comprehensive Multi-Method Technical Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC)

1. Trend Analysis: Daily, 4-Hour, and Hourly Charts

• Daily Trend: The broader price action shows BTC accelerating upward from early May, breaking through $100k and reaching an all-time high near $111,970 on May 22. Since then, BTC had a pronounced pullback, with three sharp red (down) daily candles between May 22-24, followed by volatile consolidations with lower highs and higher lows, forming a symmetrical triangle.
• Short-Term Trend (4-hour/Hourly): Volatility tightened following high volume sell-offs on May 22–24. The range between $107k–$104k has been tested multiple times, with wicks showing both aggressive selling and subsequent recoveries. Currently, a series of higher lows is forming above $103,800–$104,000, with resistance at $105,300–$105,350.

2. Volume Analysis & Order Flow

• Major Observations: May 21–24 saw a massive spike in volume, coinciding with the local top ($111,970). Liquidation likely triggered a cascade, as volumes on May 23-24 were among the highest of the year, noting panic exits and capitulation. Following this, volume dropped on the rebounds, revealing exhausted sellers and less aggressive buyers.
• Recent Order Flow: Rebounds from $103,800 have been accompanied by notable green spikes, hinting at absorption of sell pressure and short-term dip buying.

3. Price Patterns & Market Structure

• Symmetrical Triangle: Since the late-May top, BTC has been consolidating within a symmetrical triangle ($103,800–$105,300 short-term, $103,100–$111,900 wider range). Such patterns typically precede either a continuation or reversal; current formations favor consolidation with a bias toward breakout, pending volume confirmation.
• Micro double bottoms: Intra-hourly action (June 1) shows two bounces at ~ $103,850, suggestive of short-term support.
• Lower Highs/Lows: After the top, the lower highs ($109k, $107.8k, $105.3k) and higher lows ($103.1k, $103.8k) indicate market indecision.

4. Support and Resistance Mapping

• Major Support: $103,100 (swing low), $103,800 (multiple bounces), psychological $100,000.
• Major Resistance: $105,300–$105,350 (recent hourly double top), $107,800–$109,000 (major sell-off zone), $111,970 (ATH).
• Immediate Support: $104,400 (minor), $104,000 (psychological/minor technical).

5. Candlestick & Momentum Analysis

• Daily Candles: Recent daily candles show long lower wicks, implying buy-the-dip activity and reluctance for further downside. However, the last close is inside the recent range, with no decisive push up.
• Hourly Candles: Multiple doji and spinning top candles on the hourly frames between $104,800–$105,200, reflecting buyer-seller standoffs.
• MACD (Estim.): On the daily, the MACD line is flattening above zero but no bullish crossover yet. On the 4-hour, it is turning positive, signaling waning bear momentum.
• RSI (Estim.): After peaking above 80 (overbought), RSI pulled back to the 50–55 range, suggesting neither oversold nor overbought—market is in balance, favoring breakouts.

6. Bollinger Bands and Volatility Indicators

• Bollinger Bands (Hourly/4h): The bands are squeezing, indicating imminent volatility expansion. Typically, a squeeze following a larger trend (which was up) suggests a likely continuation unless price breaks below $103,800.
• ATR (Average True Range): Lowering from May 24 peak—volatility compression could soon resolve with a directional move.

7. Fibonacci Retracement Analysis (Main leg: $94100 → $111,970)

• 23.6%: $109,555
• 38.2%: $107,095
• 50%: ~$103,000–104,000
  • BTC consolidated and bounced at this 50%–61.8% zone—historically a strong continuation area if buyers step in.

8. Moving Averages

• 20 & 50 EMA (4H/1D): The 4-hour 20-EMA is around $104,800. Price is oscillating around this level—the mean reversion zone. The 50-EMA is, estimated, closer to $105,600. If BTC reclaims and holds above both on a close, upside momentum could accelerate.

9. Sentiment, Market Positioning, and External Factors

• Market Positioning: The sell-off cleaned over-leveraged longs from the top. Funding rates (not shown, but inferred by post-wick stabilization) should now be more neutral, setting a fairer battleground for both bulls and bears.
• Macro News: No significant negative headlines. ETF flows and macro risk remain bullish, providing a tailwind.

10. Synthesis & Probabilistic Outcome

• Intraday Range Expectation: Given the triangle squeeze, and the repeated successful defense of the $103,850–$104,000 support, probability favors a volatility breakout within 24 hours.
• Directional Bias: The multi-method confluence (trend support, Bollinger squeeze, reduced aggressive selling, support at critical Fibonacci/EMA levels, and long-wick candles) suggest odds are slightly biased to upside—unless $103,800 fails. If BTC closes an hourly above $105,350, likely move to test $107,800–$109,000 quickly.

---

Summary:

• Current structure is a coil within a broader uptrend pausing after a healthy pullback and cleansing. While a sharp break below $103,800 would trigger stops to $103,100–$102,800 (where value buyers may return), overall, a mean reversion and re-test of the upper triangle boundary at $107,800–$109,000 is statistically favored.

Positioning Recommendation

• Buy (Long Position) if price retraces to the lower support band ($104,250–$104,400) with a tight stop below $103,800. Target $107,800 for the initial move as triangle breaks and mean reversion exert force. Risk/reward is enhanced as discrepancy between compressed volatility and prior trend direction supports a test higher.

---

Risk Note: If $103,800 fails decisively, flip bias to short with $102,800 as the next major support. But, probability now favors a buy on support dip.

---

TL;DR: Multi-factor analysis signals symmetrical triangle squeeze resolution likely within 24 hours. Accumulate on dips toward $104,250–$104,400; target $107,800; stop if $103,800 lost.