Bitcoin (BTC) 24-Hour Price Forecast: Comprehensive Multi-Strategy Technical Analysis

Step 1: Macro Trend Assessment

Analyzing the daily closing prices over the past three months reveals a strong, persistent uptrend for Bitcoin. The price has advanced from around $78,000 in early March 2025 to a recent high of $111,673 on May 22, before retracing to the $104,800 region as of June 2. The long-term trend remains bullish, though recent price action shows some signs of consolidation and elevated volatility.

Step 2: Chart Patterns and Price Structure

Looking at the chart, several major features stand out:

• Ascending Lows & Highs: Since March, the market is making higher highs and higher lows, demonstrating consistent bullish momentum.
• Recent Correction: After topping out just above $111,000, BTC experienced a correction, forming a local bottom around $104,000 and attempting to stabilize.
• Sideways Action: The hourly data for June 1-2 shows BTC ranging between $104,100–$105,900, with no clear break of range. Buyers have stepped in above the $104k level multiple times.
• Key Support and Resistance:
  • Major support: $104,000
  • Local resistance: $105,800-$106,000
  • Additional resistance: $107,000

Step 3: Volume Analysis

• Volume Spikes: Notable volume upticks are seen on strong movement days (e.g., >$50B on May 21-22 rally, >$70B on May 7-8 breakout days).
• Current Period: Volume remains elevated ($37B-$45B daily in recent sessions); however, the past 24 hours’ up candles show no significant buying surge, suggesting some indecision, but not active distribution.

Step 4: Momentum Oscillators

• RSI (Relative Strength Index):
  • Estimated RSI on 1D chart: ~52-58 (neutral to slightly bullish, but not overbought)
  • Hourly RSI formed a slight bullish divergence versus price in the $104,100–$104,400 area during June 2’s session, hinting at possible reversal.
• MACD:
  • 4-hour MACD shows narrowing bearish momentum, with histogram approaching zero. Crossover is possible if price pushes above $105k.

Step 5: Moving Averages

• 21-EMA & 50-EMA (4H chart):
  • Price recently dipped below both averages but is testing the underside again; a reclaim and close above $105,000 would be a near-term bullish signal.
• 200-EMA (1D chart):
  • Well below current price (~$95,000), indicating overall trend support remains bullish.

Step 6: Fibonacci Retracement Levels

• Swing High: $111,673 (May 22)
• Swing Low: $94,200 (May 1-4 cluster) Key levels:
  • 0.382 Fib: ~$104,600 (horizontal confluence with recent bounce zone)
  • 0.5 Fib: ~$102,900
  • 0.618 Fib: ~$101,000 The $104,600–$105,000 area is a speculative value zone for a bounce given Fibonacci confluence.

Step 7: Candlestick and Price Action Analysis

• Hourly Candlesticks:
  • Last two hours show upper wicks testing $104,900–$104,800 with increasing volume, reflecting a potential exhaustion of selling pressure.
  • Several daily candles with long lower shadows in the $104,000–$104,300 area reinforce that buyers defend this zone.

Step 8: Volatility Metrics & ATR

• Average True Range (ATR):
  • Daily ATR sits at ~$2,000 (high volatility). Intraday swings of $600–$1,200 are currently common.
  • Stop losses and targets should thus be adjusted to avoid being stopped out by noise.

Step 9: Order Book Dynamics (Inferential)

• Based on chart behavior around $104,000, large buy orders likely sit below $104,400. Seller pressure tapers above $105,800, where previous hourly highs met resistance.

Step 10: Synthesis & Scenario Forecasting

Base Case:

• The $104,000-$104,400 area is defended; momentum builds for an upside retest of $105,800–$106,000 in the next 12 hours.
• If volume rises above average and closes an hourly candle >$105,800, next targets are $106,800 and $108,000.
• Odds of a major breakdown are lower while daily closes remain above $104,000. If $104,000 breaks, next support is $102,900 (0.5 Fib).

Bearish Alternative:

• Failure to recover above $105,000 by the next few candles will invite renewed selling; $102,900 would then be the target.

Bullish Bias Confirmation:

• Mean reversion after correction, higher lows, and positive momentum on multiple timeframes.
• Macro uptrend intact, with micro consolidation providing a potential springboard for the next rally phase.

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Final Decision: Buy (Long Position)

Entry Zone:

Given the nearby support and likelihood of a rebound, the optimal entry is as close to $104,500–$104,600 as possible. Allow up to $104,900 for execution precision in fast markets.

Take Profit:

Strong resistance is layered at $106,000 and $106,800. Recommended target: $106,800 (first break of range). Adjust upwards to $108,000 if news or breakout volume emerges.

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Trade Summary

• Buy BTC at $104,600 (or current if better than $104,900)
• Target $106,800
• Stop below $103,800 to limit drawdown below prior lows

Risk Management

• Position sizing should account for $1,000–$1,200 volatility swings intraday
• Higher targets possible if macro breakout resumes; trailing stop recommended above $106,000

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Conclusion: Multi-layered analysis supports a tactical buy at or near $104,600, aiming for the upper boundary of the current range and possible continuation toward $108,000. Risk is managed by proximity to major support and clear invalidation levels.