Bitcoin Price Analysis Powered by AI

Bitcoin Poised for Volatility Breakout: Buy Ahead of $107,000 Resistance, Target $109,000+

A. Long-Term Trend (3-month Daily Chart)

Since early March 2025 (~$80,000), BTC has shown a major uptrend, with several periods of consolidation and healthy pullbacks, displaying robust upward momentum.
After a mid-April retest of the mid-$80,000s, BTC had a strong breakthrough above $90,000 at the end of April, then broke past $100,000 in May.
Major new high zones are now established between $110,000 (recent high May 22) and $103,000 (support zone from late May/early June).

B. Medium-Term Structure

From May 8 ($103k) through May 22 (ATH $111,970), price rallied nearly straight up, reflecting a potentially euphoric leg. This was followed by a mild pullback toward $103,998, then a bounce.
The last week has seen a healthy sideways range: $103,600 (support) to $106,800 (resistance), with recent hourly spikes attempting to push $106,700. This is classic consolidation after a parabolic push.

C. Short-Term (Hourly) Structure

The last 24 hours show small-body, high-wick candles, frequent rejections around $106,700, but each dip into the $105,200–$105,300 region is being rapidly bought (hourly wicks indicating buyer support).
No lower lows formed since May 31 ($103,136 intra-bar), with higher lows at $103,998, $104,638, $105,230, and $105,790 most recently.
Short-term moving averages (e.g., 20, 50 hour) are sloped upward and acting as dynamic support.

A. Moving Averages

50-day SMA (recent estimate): ~$103,000 (strong underlying support)
20-day EMA: ~$105,000 (currently acting as dynamic pivot)
200-hour MA (intraday): climbing through $104,500 region, confirming bullish structure.
Golden Cross has formed (20 EMA above 50 and 200) on the daily.

B. Volume Analysis

Volume spikes align with upward surges, indicating impulsive buying on breaks above $106,000 and heavy defense of $105,000 in the recent session.
Post $111,970 high, declining volume on pullbacks suggests sellers lack conviction; bull bias intact.

A. RSI (14 Daily)

Estimated at ~62-68: bullish but not significantly overbought, leaving room for continuation. B. MACD (Daily & Hourly)
Still positive; histogram indicates a potential bullish crossover on the hourly, with higher lows in momentum aligning with price structure. C. Stochastics (Hourly/4H)
Recently emerged from oversold on the micro-pullbacks, suggesting fresh buying pressure may now resume.

A. Cup & Handle Formation (4H/1D)

The recent climb and pullback, forming rounded bottoming and tight consolidation at highs, fit the classic cup and handle pattern on the 4H/daily. Measured move targets (from $94k base to $104k breakout) project upside toward $114,000, supporting mid-term bullish continuation.

B. Ascending Triangle / Bull Flag (Hourly)

Repeated tests of $106,700 zone with higher lows is characteristic of an ascending triangle, typically resolving higher. Consolidation is occurring just below resistance—bullish setup.

C. Fibonacci Retracement Levels

23.6% retrace from May low ($94k) to $111,970 is $107,704 – currently being tested. 38.2% ($105,780) and 50% ($102,900) are strong supports recently respected.
BTC is consistently bouncing at, or just above, the 38.2% Fibo – very bullish.

High volumes at $105,300–$105,800 suggest aggressive buyer absorption of any short-term seller pressure.
The "liquidity pocket" above $106,700 to $107,300 is crucial: a break and hold above this area likely triggers stops and could initiate a fast move to $108,500+.

Current VWAP (monthly) sits around $105,600, which the price is now slightly above, suggesting market is positioned long but not "stretched."
Anchored VWAP from May 8 breakout rests near $105,000, matching support seen recently.

Bitcoin sentiment (off-chart indicators, e.g., funding rates and OI): currently neutral to modestly bullish, not crowded—room for more upside.
ATR (Hourly) shows compressed volatility during consolidation, frequently a precursor to sharp, volatile move (normally expansion in the same direction as the pre-existing macro trend: up).
Bollinger Bands (Hourly): Bands converging, with price holding at upper band, suggesting poised for a volatility expansion higher.

Last impulsive wave from late May is likely Wave 3, with current sideways structure representing a shallow Wave 4 consolidation. Implies Wave 5 toward $112,000–$115,000 possible in the next few days unless invalidation below $104,500.

Immediate support: $105,300, $104,900, and $104,600 (cluster from hourly/4H and major moving averages).
Critical support: $103,800–$104,000 (previous breakout/trend confirmation).
Resistance: $106,700, $107,300, and major at $109,000 (swing highs).

Probability-weighted scenario:
- The overarching uptrend, bullish consolidation near highs, cup and handle/ascending triangle formations, persistent higher lows, repeated defense of $105,300, and no signs of distribution strongly favor a bullish breakout scenario in the coming 24h.
- Volume confirms buyers are supporting dips, and volatility is primed for expansion, which in context of macro uptrend, is likely upwards.
Risk Factors: Wider market shocks or sudden macro-negative news could break $104,600 supports quickly. But at present, orderflow, structure, and technicals support further upside.

Conclusion:

Expect a breakout above $106,700–$107,300 resistance, with upside toward $109,000 in the next 24h. Downside limited to $104,900–$104,600 if temporary pullbacks occur.

Enter Buy (Long) orders at $105,800 (current price area and small breakout confirmation of the short-term consolidation top).
Target: initial TP at $109,000 (just below major resistance and liquidity sweep level).