Step-by-Step Detailed Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis and 24h Prediction

1. Long-Term Chart Pattern and Trend Analysis (March 2025 - June 2025)

• Trend Observation: Bitcoin established a major bullish trend from March lows ($76K–$80K) to recent highs above $111K in May 2025.

  • The long-term pattern shows successful higher lows and higher highs, a classic indication of a persistent uptrend.
  • Pullbacks (such as early April and the correction from $111K in late May) have been met with sustained buying, suggesting strong demand at lower levels.

• Momentum Waves: The price structure oscillates between expansion (fast upward moves, e.g., mid-May) and correction (drawdowns to $104K–$106K, as seen repeatedly at end of May/start of June). These corrections appear orderly and not panic-driven, confirming trend maturity rather than exhaustion.

• Support/Resistance Levels:

  • Major support: $102,000–$104,000 (multiple touches/bounces mid-late May, early June)
  • Near-term resistance: $105,800 / $106,800 (recent minor highs on 1h intraday moves)
  • Previous local high (all-time high): $111,970

2. Technical Indicators

a. Moving Averages (MA)

• 50-day SMA (approx $104,300): Price is oscillating above/below this key level, denoting a classic testing phase after a vertical rally
• 200-day SMA (lower to mid $90K): Price remains far above long-term averages, underscoring underlying macro-bullishness
• Intraday (1h, 4h) MAs:
  • 1h MA: flattening, starting to curl down—a sign of momentum cooling in the short term
  • 4h MA: price remains above this, supporting trend integrity

b. RSI (Relative Strength Index)

• Daily RSI: Recent peaks (above 70, overbought) now reverting to 55–60. No bearish divergence seen, but consolidation underway.
• 4h RSI: Dropping toward 45–50, indicating selling pressure is emerging.

c. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

• Daily MACD: Bullish crossover occurred in May; recent days showing a mild bearish cross or at least a flattening, confirming a cooling-off after overextension.
• Histogram: Slight negative slope, signaling downward momentum but no major dump.

3. Candlestick & Volume Analysis (Recent 48-72h)

• 6/1–6/2: Rising candles, mid-size body, moderate volume = recovery rally.
• 6/2–6/4: Smaller-bodied candles, volume lessening, with shadows upper and lower, implying indecision and attempts to test both sides.
• Volume Climax: 5/31–6/1, notable surge—possibly a buying climax, post which the market looks for direction.
• Wick analysis: Frequent wicks above $105,800 failed to close strongly, short-term resistance is robust in that region.

4. Intraday Price Structure (6/4 Hourly Data)

• 105,900–106,000: Rejected several times (11:00, 14:00, near 20:00 UTC). Immediate resistance.

• 104,600–105,000: Repeated hourly support, tested and held, but no follow-through higher yet.

• 104,300 (intraday low): Minor breach could see quick sell-off towards major support at 104,000.

• Price coil: Price is coiling tightly between $104,600 and $105,800 (approx 1% range) for the last 24h, indicating a big move imminent as volatility compresses.

5. Volatility & Market Structure

• ATR (Average True Range):

  • Multi-day ATR rising in May, now declining—a classic prelude to breakout post-consolidation.
  • Implies next impulsive move likely over the next 24h as traders position bets.

• Bollinger Bands:

  • Bands are tightening marginally in hourly frames, confirming volatility compression.
  • Price trading at/near the lower band in the last few hours, hinting at downside risk if buyers don't step in.

6. Order Flow / Market Depth

• Recent Spot and Derivatives exchanges show thick bids concentrated around $104,000 and then $102,800; offer walls visible $105,800–$106,400.
• Open interest has declined after May's surge, implying short-term uncertainty but mainly profit-taking rather than new shorts.

7. Fibonacci Retracement & Pattern Recognition

• Pullback from $111,970 high:
  • 23.6% Fib: $106,300 (short-term resistance there)
  • 38.2% Fib: $104,135 (acted as support intraday)
• This zone is classic for trend-continuation setups if price holds; a break below $104,000 could target deeper retracements at $101,900 (50%).

8. Elliott Wave Considerations

• From April's $76K base to May's $111K peak appears as a classic 5-wave advance; recent action is likely a corrective Wave 4 (ABCDE flag); if so, one more push to new highs (Wave 5) probable after consolidation ends.

9. Sentiment & Market Positioning

• Sentiment:
  • Social media and funding rates are resetting from euphoric to neutral/slightly cautious; bull fuel but not overhyped.
• ETF inflows/outflows:
  • Data for late May showed net inflows slowing but not reversing; institutional bid at lower levels remains strong.

10. Synthesis & Prediction (Next 24 Hours)

Neutral-to-Slight Bearish Bias Short-Term

• Most indicators confirm the larger uptrend is intact, but the current intraday structure reveals a market stuck in a tight consolidation with waning bullish momentum.
• Immediate resistance ($105,800–$106,000) has consistently rejected advances. Support ($104,600) is holding for now, but repeated tests weaken demand and increase risk of a flush.
• With order book and Fib confluence, a break below $104,600 opens scenario toward $104,000 and potentially $102,800 if panic selling is triggered (especially in stop cascades).
• However, the depth of historical trend indicates bulls will step in with sizeable buys as price tests major support ($103,800–$104,000 zone), limiting sharp declines.

Recommendation: Short-term SELL (short bias)

• Given the range compression, fading momentum, and looming volatility expansion (with risk skewed to the downside after repeated failed attempts higher), the high-probability short-term trade is to SELL into minor bounces.
• Targeting a move to $104,000–$103,800 for profit-taking. Set stops near $105,900 (above local resistance).