Step 1: Macro Trend and Price Action Assessment

• Long-Term Trend Analysis: The 3-month chart shows a strong bullish macro trend, with Bitcoin rising from ~ $77,000 in early April to above $111,000 in late May. However, the price action in early June indicates increased volatility and a significant short-term reversal.

• Most Recent Movements: In the four days leading up to the current price ($100,784.77), BTC failed to make new highs and showed sharp intraday 'liquidation wicks.' On June 5th, there was a dramatic drop from above $104,000 down to $100,784, breaching multiple recent support levels.

Step 2: Key Technical Indicators

Moving Averages (MAs):

• Short-Term MAs (20/50 EMA/SMA): The price has sharply dropped below the 20-period ($104,000) and the 50-period ($103,500) moving averages on short-term hourly and daily charts, both acting as resistance. This is a short-term bearish sign.
• 200-Day SMA (estimate): Likely below the current price, suggesting long-term uptrend intact, but short-term correction is underway.

Relative Strength Index (RSI):

• Daily RSI: Likely dropped from 60–70 to below 40 on today’s sharp dip, suggesting prior overbought conditions have rapidly unwound, hitting near-term oversold territory.
• Hourly RSI: Below 30 post-drop—suggesting the market is short-term oversold, possibly primed for a weak bounce but not enough for a full reversal.

MACD:

• Daily MACD: The histogram flipped negative and lines are crossing downward, signaling momentum shift toward bears after a failed retest above $105,000.
• Hourly MACD: Deeply negative.

Volume Profile:

• Volume Surge on Breakdown: Over 51B in volume in the most recent period, well above average, confirming bearish conviction and possible long liquidations. Sell-side pressure dominant.

Step 3: Chart Patterns, Support and Resistance

• Rising Wedge Breakdown: The post-May high formed a rising wedge with multiple unsuccessful attempts to break above $111,000. Pattern completion with today’s breakdown is classically bearish.
• Support Levels:
  • $104,000 = Major failed support, likely to be retested as resistance.
  • $102,000 = Intermediary support, also lost in the last few hours.
  • $100,000 = Key round-number psychological level; price currently hovering above, and if breached, a potential acceleration to $98,000–$95,000 zone is probable.
• Resistance Levels:
  • $102,000–$104,000 zone now likely to act as heavy resistance in case of bounces.
  • $105,000 = 20 & 50 MA convergence and selling zone.

Step 4: Order Flow and Liquidity

• Orderbook Absorption: The sharp drop on increasing volume suggests thin liquidity below $104,000, and that buyers have stepped aside, allowing cascading liquidations.
• Stop Hunt and Liquidation: The long squeeze is likely not complete until we see further volume spikes/sub-100k wicks. If price quickly reclaims $102,000 on high volume, short-term reversal is possible, but right now, momentum is downward.

Step 5: Sentiment and Volatility

• High Implied Volatility: The rapid intraday move—over 4% downward in just hours—suggests heightened volatility; this is confirmed by high trading volumes and large candles intraday.
• Market Sentiment: Market appears shaken, with strong buyer capitulation. No meaningful reversal pattern confirmed at this point.

Step 6: Fibonacci Retracement (Recent Swing)

• Swing Low (late April): ~$94,000

• Swing High (late May): ~$111,970

• Key Fibonacci Levels:

  • 38.2%: ~$105,640 (already lost)
  • 50%: ~$102,985 (lost)
  • 61.8%: ~$100,000 (current zone—critical support)

• A close below 61.8% retrace will open risk towards prior consolidation area ($96,000–$98,000).

Step 7: Synthesis and Price Forecast (24h)

• Bearish Momentum: Intense selloff, key support lost, buyers retreating, MA and oscillator structure negative.
• Short-term Oversold: Potential for dead-cat bounce (1–2%) but overall trend favors more downside.
• Further Downside Risk: If $100,000 round level breaks convincingly, next leg likely to $98,000 and then $95,000. If $100,000 holds temporarily, watch for a weak bounce toward $102,000 (now resistance) before renewed selling.

---

Conclusion: Trading Decision

• Bias: Short/Sell
• Rationale: Every major technical, momentum, volume, and pattern/fib tool converges on bearish interpretation. Failed support, negative momentum, and a lack of reversal signals. Short-term oversold, but bear rally bounces should be sold into.
• Optimal Entry: Ideally, open short on a retest of $101,500 (just below lost support, allowing for a weak bounce). Conservative traders can layer between $101,000–$102,000.
• Take Profit: $97,000 – Near prior inflection/support and before next big wall of bids.

---

Final Recommendation: Sell/Short BTC

• Open Price: $101,500 (on bounce)
• Take Profit (Close): $97,000
• Stop: Conservative traders may set a stop above $104,000 (just above key resistance and MA confluence).

This approach balances risk:reward, aligns with momentum, structure, and volatility profile. Wait for a technical rejection or failed bounce at the $101,000–$102,000 zone to initiate the short.