Comprehensive Technical Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) as of June 8, 2025

1. Trend Analysis

Medium-to-Long-Term Trend (Daily Timeframe)

• From early March to current date, BTC has steadily ascended from $78,500s to $106,000+. Major resistance levels have been broken at $85,000, $95,000, and $105,000, turning these into support zones.
• The recent 30-day price action confirms an uptrend with a healthy mix of rallies and corrections, consistent with a structurally sound bull market.

Short-Term Trend (Hourly Data, Last 24–48 Hours)

• Price ranged between $104,000 and $106,400 over the last 24h, with higher lows and persistent attempts at $106,400+.
• Consolidation in a tight band, implying accumulation and a likely impending volatility expansion.

2. Moving Averages

• 20-day SMA: Estimated around $105,000—current price above this, showing bullish momentum persists.
• 50-day SMA: Closer to $102,000—price has not revisited this range since late May.
• 200-day SMA: Around $90,000—remains far below current price, underscoring a strong secular uptrend.

All key SMAs slope upwards; no signs of imminent death crosses or reversals in the intermediate timeframe. Price is trending above all significant moving averages.

3. Support and Resistance Levels

• Immediate Support: $105,000 (recent base and previous resistance now tested as support)
• Next Support: $104,000 (local low from June 7–8)
• First Resistance: $106,400 (intraday highs; also recent failed breakouts)
• Major Resistance: $110,000–$111,000 (last prominent tops, mid/late May)

4. Volume Analysis

• Intraday volume surges on green candles as price approaches $106,400.
• Larger daily volumes coincide with price breakouts (notably May 21–23 and June 5–8), a classic confirmation of bullish advances.
• Lower volume on minor pullbacks suggests corrections are being bought.

5. Price Patterns

• Cup and Handle: March–May forms a base and a handle, typically bullish; the subsequent breakout above $100,000 aligns with expectations of this pattern.
• Bull Flag / Pennant (Current): Tight consolidation since June 6 against $106,000+, with declining intraday volatility—a textbook bullish continuation setup.

6. Oscillators (Inferred)

• RSI (Estimated): Likely in upper 60–70s; there has been a pause in sharp upward movement, indicating market is not severely overbought. Minor oscillations around the top of the recent range.
• MACD (Estimated): Bullish crossover persists as price holds above previous highs.
• Stochastic (Estimated): May be entering overbought, but consolidation tempers risk of immediate pullback.

7. Volatility (ATR)

• Average True Range (ATR) has narrowed in the last 12 hours, mirroring price compression; however, over the past week, high ATR readings led to upward surges (a sign that volatility spikes are upward-biased).
• Range contraction near highs is often a prelude to breakout moves, especially post-trend.

8. Order Flow & Market Positioning

• Consecutive higher lows on hourly charts signal continuous spot buying and derivatives positioning in favor of bulls.
• Lack of strong selling wicks/volume on dips: A sign that bulls retain control, with little interest from bears at these prices.

9. Fibonacci Retracement

• Pulling from the $78,500 March low to $111,970 high, the 23.6% fib is around $104,000, which coincides with multiple test points in recent micro-corrections.
• Price holding above this fib level further supports bullish continuation.

10. Elliott Wave Perspective

• The move from $78,500 to $111,970 can be interpreted as major Wave 3. The current consolidation is a possible micro Wave 4, with Wave 5 targeting new ATHs.
• Micro-count from $101,575 low (June 5) shows 5-wave substructure aligning with ongoing bullish impulse.

11. Sentiment and Market Psychology

• Strong uptrend, aggressive buying on dips, and little panic selling suggest overwhelmingly bullish sentiment.
• Short-term sideways action is healthy, likely the result of profit-taking and new buyers entering, recharging for the next upward leg.
• Structural risk: None apparent except over-extension (which is being mitigated by sideways digestion).

12. Confluence and Synthesis

All major trend, volume, moving average, and pattern analyses point to bullish continuation. Only note of caution: price is extended from 20/50-day SMAs, but not drastically, and current consolidation phase is constructive.

Anticipate a breakout above $106,400–$106,500 level, which may drive short liquidation and attract new momentum traders targeting psychological $110,000 and beyond. Downside looks capped at $105,000–$104,000 (stop-loss zone for breakout traders).

13. Trade Plan

• Bias: Bullish
• Trade Type: Breakout Long, with tight intra-range risk controls, aiming to capture volatility expansion on the upside.
• Confirmation Triggers: Audibly aggressive bidding above $106,400; close above this zone on the hourly chart will validate entry.
• Invalidation: Failure to hold $105,000 would suggest a failed breakout and opportunity for a sharp flush to $104,000 support.

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Conclusion:

The data indicates high-probability bullish breakout continuation over the next 24 hours. The optimal strategy is to buy a break of $106,400, set stops below $105,000, and target $109,700–$110,000 on a momentum surge.

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Recommendation: BUY/LONG

• Open Price: $106,400 (breakout confirmation)
• Target Price (Close): $109,700 (first major resistance below psychological $110,000)
• Stop-loss/Invalidation: below $105,000

Summary: High-conviction long setup for BTC, fueled by multi-timeframe uptrend, bullish consolidation, and imminent volatility expansion.